Posted on 11/24/2023 7:54:16 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Nappy Trailer:
https://www.imdb.com/video/vi3626944281/?listId=ls053181649&ref_=hm_hp_i_hero-video-1_1
“The West is NOT going to pump the level of money and arms into Ukraine as they did for Ukraine’s last failed counter offensive.”
That may be your assessment or aspiration, but formally, the donor countries have announced their intention to increase funding in 2024 from 2023 levels.
The Biden Admin has requested a big increase (to $60 Billion for FY 2024, up from around $20 Billion in Military aid in each of FY 2022 and 2023), which is still in the budget process in Congress. If that comes through, it is enough to effectively finish off Russia’s remaining inventory of several types of major combat platforms (e.g. tanks, Attack Helicopters, Close Air Support jets, and some types of Artillery systems like the TOS-1 thermobaric MLRS).
Russian production rates for new tanks is only about 10% their rate of loss in combat, and the ratio is much worse for aviation assets. Inventories are roughly 2/3rds depleted, and the better stuff went first.
Demilitarizing Russia is a valuable Strategic goal for NATO, and funding Ukraine is is a very rapid and effective method of achieving that end state. The West can hardly afford to NOT fund Ukraine’s war effort.
Compared to a direct engagement with NATO, we can get the job done for pennies on the dollar, and with no NATO casualties or infrastructure destruction, by enabling the Ukrainian Military to do it. Arguably, no one else is better suited to do it, with Ukraine’s location, linguistic capabilities, cultural understanding of Russian tactics and strategy, and a technically capable and motivated Military and civilian population.
In addition to running out of the old Soviet inventories that have allowed Russia to maintain this rate of combat operations, Russia is also depleting its financial reserves. Roughly speaking, after Putin re-elects himself next March, Russia will no longer be able to kick the can down the road to maintain their civilian economy in the near term, anywhere near to the degree they have done so, so far. Their financial reserves in the National Wealth Fund and Gold reserves are on track to peter out, from funding the deficits they have been running (unable to borrow Internationally, because of sanctions).
Russia faces some serious constraints. Their total GDP is less than that of Italy, California or Texas; and they are now the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth. They are more dependent on oil and gas revenue to fund their Federal budget than is Saudi Arabia, and those revenues are down about 70% from 2021, in rubles (more in dollars).
I give Napoleon 3 stars out of 4. I would recommend it.
A bit too long and slow at times. But an interesting movie.
Oil Prices are down from their late Summer surge, and sanctions enforcement is back to choking Russian supply.
Russia’s most profitable hydrocarbon industries (natural gas and refined petroleum products) are just a shadow of their pre-war revenues (half of Russia’s 44 mega refineries have been idled), and Russia is reduced to selling low margin crude at a smuggler’s discount, with increased costs. When supply was tight and prices higher for a few months, sanctions enforcement was loose - but now the noose is tightening again:
UAE Enforces Stricter Rules on Russian Firms in Clamp Down on Sanctions Evasion
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UAE-Enforces-Stricter-Rules-on-Russian-Firms-in-Clamp-Down-on-Sanctions-Evasion.html
“The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which had become an attractive destination for Russian business after the invasion of Ukraine, has increased checks and enforced stricter banking rules on Russian companies amid rising U.S. pressure on the UAE to help clamp down on sanctions evasion...
...The UAE is looking to come off the so-called ‘grey list’ for financial crimes of the Financial Act Task Force (FATF). Therefore, the Gulf state is unwilling to be linked with risks related to sanctions, including the Western sanctions on Russian businesses, money transfers, and the energy industry...
...The clampdown on Russian firms in the UAE comes as the West is considering toughening up the sanction enforcement on evaders of the price cap on Russian oil, almost none of which now trades below the ceiling of $60 per barrel.
Last month, the United States took a tougher stance on the sanctions against Russia and sanctioned two vessels for violating the price cap.
Just last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on three maritime companies based in the UAE and three vessels owned by the companies for shipping Russian oil sold above the price cap.
This week, Reuters reported that three major Greek shipping firms had halted transport of Russian crude due to the heightened risk of facing U.S. sanctions.
Greek shippers Minerva Marine, TMS Tankers, and Thenamaris have stopped carrying Russian oil to customers in the Middle East, Asia, Turkey, Africa, and South America, Reuters reported, citing trade sources and shipping data. “
*** Sanctions: most the world is NOT sanctioning Russia. Most of the world includes our neighbor and NAFTA member Mexico... and the nations in BRICS which has massively expanded to include Saudi Arabia and Egypt (our allies and which threatens the US dominance as the petrol-currency long term).
The sanctions folks like to mention, is a hand we always play. Our MO is known and Russia is big enough economically (volume and diversity), influential enough on the world stage, to where they were able to set up counter measures to what they knew we would do. One benefit they enjoy, is that what they sell is not a want, but a need. Surely the sanctions are hurting them in certain areas, but do not oversell this. However, we overplayed our hand and what you’re seeing today is a backlash in that respect too, i.e. may it be with BRICS expanding, or nations moving away from US securities (It’s early and small, but one has to consider that this is the beginning of something bigger): https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt
The “world” has had enough of us speaking on their behalf and coercing them into playing our games which they have to economically and politically pay for.
We are also affected by these sanctions, inflation pressure.
*** Military aid to Ukraine: it is already weening, so is that from the Euro’s.
It is slowing down: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F9D72WOXQAAVBBl?format=jpg&name=large
https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/Ov2oxvWSiAHEvJJS-xFu8Dwj7p4=/1440x0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/RFXS2BFSJVAX5FZL4FPILTKZNQ.jpg (status Feb 2023 and post Ukraine offensive this is slowing) We aren’t going to send Ukraine 10,000 Javelin missile systems like we did early on.
Flip through these slides: https://www.newsweek.com/2023/05/05/read-leaked-secret-intelligence-documents-ukraine-vladimir-putin-1794656.html#slideshow/2222794 Basically, 2/3rds+ of all the equipment for Ukraine’s last counter offensive was stuff we primarily and others sent them. That’s not happening anymore.
*** Depleting military resources.
You have US defense contractors calling back retirees in order to ramp up production of key systems because of shortages at this point. That’s on our side.
That does not look good to me: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/IEMXlRCo4G5f7R4amHLZsXwsahcikDU79W8j8jDHkz7eAdK8klhprXI34ZE7FoXiEHJYfx1d2zgibC2tK1I0ng_EaYQovG4yEPEfMx806nj0q_zUVdugPZtSxSwMHvYOHNZYTRYjp-oqc8J172dkWA
We are also affected by the depletion of war stock, see Israel today where we took much of our war stock from (we have a major depot there) and now we can’t back Israel the way we should and with whom we actually have 3 different security agreements and a SOFA.
We’re not economically healthy either (high inflation, massive debt and slowing GDP), and a knife fight where we bleed isn’t helping. Our government is of course sugar coating things and setting the expectations high (tell everyone all is fine, move along and go shopping), but if you look at the housing market (home sales), car sales, credit card defaults, credit card debt, it’s all bad with only a few contrary indicators such as mortgage default rates which are at all time lows. It’s not solid ground we’re standing on.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/october-2023-home-sales-fall-ec6b3164
https://economics.td.com/us-vehicle-sales
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/07/economy/household-debt-credit-card-delinquencies-q3/index.html
*** So tell me, how does this fit into your picture of Ukrainian victory?
https://news.yahoo.com/us-germany-plan-force-zelenskyy-170600495.html
We will continue to send money and arms to Ukraine, because they are so screwed up that if we didn’t they would collapse.
Ukraine is a vassal state of the West, managed literally by a US bank (JPMC) and asset holding company (BR), massively indebted to us (that’s part of our game), with a US hand picked president, kept alive by money and weapon infusions from us. We will send them what they need to keep the line, basically preserve the current territory, but we are NOT sending them the mass and types of equipment we did to build up a large offensive capability. That last offensive was it.
Maybe you didn’t read or understand what I wrote in my last post, so I’ll reformulate it. We will end this war quietly. This war has become unpopular and anyone leading and signing to any sort of agreement with the Russians will get their face and name associated with what is a failure in meeting our stated political (NATO membership for Ukraine) and military (keep Russia out of Eastern Ukraine) objectives. While folks like Biden and his advisors Sullivan etc. might have shot their mouth off when this all started and people were behind it, now that it’s unpopular and a failure, they will rather not be the ones signing anything at some formal event. When you loose, the leaders that made the decisions usually don’t show up even if there is a need for some agreement: https://cloudfront-eu-central-1.images.arcpublishing.com/thenational/XK6YO4DJ54OCXOJV2TZVANRPHM.jpg My guess is things will just fizzle out and without any ceremony or agreement it’ll just sort of end. That’s what “leaders” like Biden do-
“Denmark has agreed to increase additional funding for a fund, which finances support for Ukraine, by €308 million in 2023 and by €3.15 billion for 2025-2027.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1728120339266228340
“most the world is NOT sanctioning Russia...
...Russia is big enough economically (actually, Canada or Mexico or Texas has has a bigger GDP) ... to where they were able to set up counter measures to what they knew we would do.”
The net result of sanctions, is that Russian oil and gas revenues are down 70% from 2021 (before sanctions) - as officially reported by the Russian Ministry of Finance. (Russia is hugely dependent on oil and gas - by far the biggest component of their economy). Gazprom now operates at a loss. Half of Russian refineries have been shuttered.
Outside of oil and gas, the total rest of the Russian civilian economy has been in recession. Only a massive increase in security and Defense spending by the Government has raised the total GDP into positive territory.
The surge in spending on Defense has driven the Russian Federal budget into a large wartime deficit, that they have funded by cashing out their financial reserves (the National Wealth Fund, which is designed to pay out pensions to many Russians), and by a very rapid expansion of their money supply (”printing rubles”, at a much faster rate than Western countries did during COVID).
The “guns vs. butter” wartime defense spending by Russia employs people in the short term, but the product is quickly destroyed, unlike the civilian economy, where much activity provides lasting value, or enables future growth.
Russia is rapidly squandering its wealth on a massive war of choice - a giant armed robbery that went wrong for Putin.
“Maybe you didn’t read or understand what I wrote in my last post”
I simply disagree with your premise, that the West is exhausted, and Russia can outlast it. I believe that Russia will be profoundly exhausted by another year of war at current rates - militarily, financially, economically and politically. The West can achieve that for a few percentage points of their normal Defense budgets.
Once the old Soviet arsenals and the National Wealth Fund are depleted, it will be “Katie bar the door” for Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, and in their domestic politics.
“ It is reported that overnight in Dzhankoy, occupied Crimea, an air defense launcher and radar complex were destroyed”
Maybe the precursor to another attack on Crimea…
Thanks for your recommendation. There are very few others I would trust with with this.
I am an amateur historian regarding Napoleon. I don’t want to waste time on an inaccurate movie.
I will go see it.
2 stars for Napoleon. Needed way more Battlefield Napoleon and way less Cuck Napoleon.
Much of what red6 has merit in the sense that as long as Russia is willing to deplete itself to maintain this “SMO” they will continue
The control of the internals of Russia is only something the czars could have dreamed of.
Imagine 15000 lost in ten years in Afghanistan and contributing to the fall of Soviet Union and yet loses many times that in less than 2 years and the grip on power still remains.
The line things go slow till they don’t may apply here, but as the line shows those cracks don’t appear slowly they come all at once, when it happens(I think strongly that it will), there will be much hand wringing, and lots of people saying they knew this would happen…. When days earlier they had an opposite opinion.
Countries, regimes, businesses all fall under this.
One point of contention I have is with the Israel comment
I don’t believe there is any shortage of weapons for Israel. Certainly not because of support for Ukraine
Artillery is not being used to anywhere near the level as in Ukraine and much of the are made with precision air launched munitions, something not used much in Ukraine and confident Israel has sufficient stocks and if they need more we have them
What can’t be discounted is that Russia is bleeding money as well as manpower and equipment
As you said GDP is increased by war effort, that is a numbers thing, but if ford made 50000 cars and then blew them up is that really helping GDP.
Spending on the military and internal security is way up, everything else is way down, add that to decreased revenue, internal issues within the population regards to SMO and it is not a good look.
BRICs is an interesting topic, will see how that goes. China a main player is part of that goes slow…..if China fails what does that do to brics?
Every time they lose systems like this I wonder , how many do they have left, and how many can they produce and for how long?
It is evident that they are pulling systems from around the country to fill gaps all the while Ukraine expands the areas that need air defense.
Moscow is not under severe threat of effective attacks(yet), but air defense is needed because successful attacks don’t have a good look
Goehring saying Berlin will never be attacked comes to mind.
I would imagine state of the art air defense systems are just as hard and expensive to build as say the patriot, so the lose of these systems both in capacity and cost would seem difficult to say the least for the Russians
What happens if/when Russia has to decide between putins palace and Crimea?
Here is list of ‘inaccuracies’ in the movie.
To read before or after movie.
Thanks - very helpful!
“Imagine 15000 lost in ten years in Afghanistan and contributing to the fall of Soviet Union and yet loses many times that in less than 2 years and the grip on power still remains.”
Some analysts point to oil prices as the real bottom line in the fall of the Soviet Union.
With the Arab oil embargo of 1973, oil prices (and Russian revenue) surged several times over. Their budget expanded along with it. In 1986, prices crashed, and stayed in a much lower band, but the budget never adapted completely, and they bled out financially.
Lesson learned for the West, about Russia’s vulnerability.
And history is kind of repeating itself wouldn’t you say, they still have revenue from petro stuff but I would argue it is way down and expenses are way up
Additionally the air of invincibility or at least parity is gone, almost two years into the war and their gains are not significant esp when considering who they attacked and the amount of weapons and manpower they have.
The effectiveness of many of their much hyped systems have been exposed and if and when they ever can begin to export again, not sure who will be interested, and at what level of profit
Though military aid has been substantial it is not like attacking NATO.
AirPower alone would be a significant part of any nato defense or offense
It will be interesting to see if introduction of western aircraft and the capabilities will have much of an impact.
I tend to think it will over time, increased costs of this war by Russia will have an effect, the using up of the Soviet legacy weapons systems will as well
Russia has manpower, but to waste at such levels is not something they can maintain forever esp considering the demographics of Russia, of course Ukraine is in a bad situation as well, the difference is that Russians are being told all is well and losses are small, at some point the truth of the losses for gains will be exposed
Just my two cents tant
I can not argue against your point in that this entire Ukraine war may just be a chess move to weaken our only competitor in gas and oil, with Ukraine being the expendable pawn.
In fact, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Venezuela where we invaded or have been caught red handed trying to sponsor coups, and which are all aligned or even formal allies of Russia support your argument.
Yes, in that sense the war in Ukraine is weakening Russia’s ability to hold onto Libya, Venezuela and Syria. Even other border and former Soviet republics such as Georgia which we have been eyeballing for a long time but the Russians blocked our grab of in 2008.
If we basically caused a war and are responsible for tens of thousands of deaths, millions of refugees, the destruction of a fairly prosperous nation of 41 million for our own economic long term interests, this is an idea I think most people do not even want to entertain.
It is not even reasonable to believe that Russia would accept what we were pushing onto them. Ukraine had a massive force build up. Then we pushed it over the top with NATO expansion, which we knew was a HUGE sore spot. All of this was with the backdrop of Minsk, ethnic Russians living in Eastern Ukraine, our pulling out of the ballistic missile treaty and no negotiating regards constraints on types of equipment or force limits, inspections, etc. and our efforts to strip away all of Russia’s oil producing frontier nations.
Our folks in the bureaucracy may be naive at times and the political elite driven by weird populist ideas or some ideology (LGBTQIA of late is a good example), but what we did was so over the top ridiculous that this alone is another supporting argument for your theory that all of this is just about weakening Russia, depleting them. When someone comes to your house and $hits on your porch, waits around for you to open the door, and then says F-you when you address the situation, maybe they are looking to fight.
I suppose it is wishful thinking on my part that we’re bumbling idiots that miscalculated and staying in the micro looking at Ukraine alone, vs. us being outright frigging Machiavellian in pursuit of economic interests in a bigger picture.
Again, I can’t disagree with you, it is plausible and maybe even likely, that all of this is just a chess move in a bigger game. But think about what that makes us?
“… driven the Russian Federal budget into a large wartime deficit, that they have funded by cashing out their financial reserves (the National Wealth Fund, which is designed to pay out pensions to many Russians), and by a very rapid expansion of their money supply…”
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Hmmmm…. I wonder if there are any other large nations that have done that. And done it for MANY years.
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