Posted on 11/20/2023 6:50:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
5 months.
You either have a deal or it’ll be fizzled out.
But in either case, 5 more months.
But in either case, 5 more months.
—
Is that the date Putin/Patrushev set for the withdrawal of their forces?
Nope,
That’s just my guess as to when things end officially or unofficially.
Officially if we come up with a treaty/deal (armistice). Unofficially, if there is still a state of war but things simply slow down and the fighting mostly ends.
Our foreign and security policy is based on our national politics and political system with it’s election cycles. See Iraq and Obama’s withdraw in 2011 prior to the elections in 2012 as an example.
This war in Ukraine has already become politically toxic and there is a reason why politicians no longer brag about how they vote and support more weapons and money being funneled there. Already 3 months ago the liberal pro-Democrat, pro-Biden, pro-Globalist, war cheerleaders in our MSM had to concede that they lost popular support for this war: https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/04/politics/cnn-poll-ukraine/index.html
As the elections heat up it will become more difficult to support hemorrhaging weapons and money as folks inevitably use this in opposition politics.
But also, there is the realization that Ukraine is not getting that territory back, like the Crimea, it’s gone. The failed counter offensive was very expensive and I seriously doubt that the West is willing to pay for this again.
We gambled with NATO and guessed wrong. Russia is willing to take action.
We then set our hopes of stopping the Russian advance from taking the Eastern areas, we failed and Russia took them after all. We then amassed a huge force and supplied Ukraine with an unprecedented amount of arms and high tech for a counter offensive where nearly 2/3rds of all the equipment was of Western origin and it failed. That was it, it’s over.
*** We are now in a state of limbo, a twilight where we don’t have an exit strategy, do not want to concede defeat, but where also won’t support Ukraine at the levels in the past and realize in all reality that we failed to achieve our political and military objectives.
My bet is that there will be no deal (a deal would show failure) but things just get quiet as we slowly ween them off the money and arms spigot.
“Meet 🇺🇦 Backfire: a powerful drone that flies up to 35 km behind enemy’s positions and causes colossal losses. Main feature of UAV: powerful GPS antenna, resistant to Russian jamming. The drone is being prepared for serial production. “
https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/status/1726616078133178758
“Germany handed over long-range Titan Falcon UAVs printed on a 3D printer to Ukraine. It can fly for up to 6 hours, with a range of 400 km. It is possible to install a camera with a 2.5-inch lens.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1726625851238949106
World and red add so much
Such in depth analysis, worldly experiences, top notch information
Nevermind
“A video of Russian Mi-28NM accidentally striking their own abandoned modified MT-LB with an ATGM. “
https://twitter.com/SalmelaJS/status/1726642062911811815
“The math doesn’t add up. CIT has analyzed what’s happening with recruitment to the RuAF.
Last week, Medvedev said that 410,000 people had joined the RuAF. If it’s true, then authorities would’ve thus met their objectives for 2023.”
“But what is the real situation “on the ground”? In August during a meeting in Tolyatti an official disclosed that the city was given a target of 2,000 recruits, but managed to sign up just over 250, or only 12.5%, 4-5 months after the start of the campaign”
“In Sept., the military commissar of Yakutia presented data on the fulfillment of recruitment plan by various districts. The republic aimed to recruit at least 3,322 people (slightly more in reality), but by Sept. it had recruited less than a third—1,017.”
https://twitter.com/CITeam_en/status/1726581711658783041
Left bank goodwill gestures have started.
One single M142? At this point Ukraine has more M142/M270 capability than ammo. Wanna bet that this HIMARS is being sent with a software (and possibly hardware) update and some long awaited GLSDB rockets?
Off topic, it's rumored that the next gen PrSM Increment 4 will be a ram jet powered cruise missile with over 1,000km range. The M142 is becoming like a Swiss Army Knife.
Love the “and other ancillary equipment”
In Washington speak that can be anything
Oh and “additional ammunition like perhaps as you said glsdb or atacms.
Bleeding Russia may have been the initial goal, letting Putin “win” now I think is not an option
Atacms, glsdb, and western aircraft and their capabilities will make for a long winter and a warm spring. Don’t think general winter is going to be a Russian ally this time.
“Just lots more dead Russians and Hamas commanders”
Getting the job done.
Doing the work that we would rather not have Americans have to do.
Thanks for the update Brother.
“Wanna bet that this HIMARS is being sent with a software (and possibly hardware) update and some long awaited GLSDB rockets?”
Interesting and informed speculation (”analysis”) like this make your posts a joy to read.
USAF AC130 gunship taking care of business in Iraq right now.
Russia using guided air bombs against Odesa right now as retaliation for left bank Dnipro gains by Ukraine.
Russia unable to use Kalibr missiles against Odesa because the launch ships retreated to Novorossiysk but the Kalibr missiles are still in Sevastopol.
“Russia using guided air bombs against Odesa right now” (unable to use Kalibr missiles)
I wonder if this might be a new or modified weapon, as opposed to a tactical change in using their aircraft (or perhaps they have been doing this, and I was unaware).
It would seem that Russian aircraft would have to be exposed to Ukrainian Air Defenses, to get that close, to use glide bombs. Maybe they have a way to spoof or evade the Air Defense?
The ruzzian aircraft would certainly be in-range of Patriots.
I wonder if this might be a new or modified weapon...
I believe these are new weapons...equivalent to JDAM-ERs.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.