Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[BeauBo]

"a clear indication that ruzzia no longer has an artillery advantage."

Now their Close Air Support is significantly disrupted as well, opening the door for better results on the ground - possibly why the river crossing kicked off. HIMARS blunted Russia's overwhelming Artillery advantage when first deployed. It looks like ATACMS has made its own change to the tactical dynamic with Close Air Support.

Kyiv Post reports:

"Defence Express analytical platform reported, most likely, in that day (17 Oct) of Ukrainian (ATACMS) missile strikes, at least 20 military helicopters, or about six percent of the rotary wing aircraft in the entire Russian Air Force, were rendered long-term unflyable or damaged too badly to be worth trying to repair."... (disproportionally losses were among Attack Helicopters)

(there has also been a spate of Su-25 shootdowns - three to five in a week, by different reports)

..."that the Russian Air Force lost at least 14 airplanes each costing probably between $3 and $5 million over the last week is an established fact confirmed by multiple sources. Kyiv Post researchers believe the actual count is likely between 20 and 25 jets and helicopters."

[BeauBo]

I would be interested in your impression of what the possible effects of the ATACMS strikes on Russian airfield operations and support capability might be.

Berdyansk got hit with at least two (likely three) ATACMS, which scattered about 2,000 - 3,000 M-74 grenade-like fragmentation submunitions, setting fire to several helicopters alongside the runways. Reportedly at least 20 were killed, including 4 pilots, which indicates they were out there working, rather than just parked overnight.

Besides the helicopters that have obviously been burnt, what other problems would you anticipate they might have, after having had a rainstorm of grenades all over the place?

[PIF]

Russian Telegram hint it my be Dec-Jan that they will stop fighting - but of course the Ukraine would have to stop attacking ...

[BeauBo]

Forbes reports:

“The Biden Administration has stressed that the United States will supply Ukraine with ATACMS “without risking our military readiness.” That seems to mean that expired, or nearly-expired, M39s are eligible for transfer—and so are old M48s with 500-pound unitary warheads. New M57s will remain with U.S. forces.

The M39s and M48s between them give the Ukrainians’ 60 or so M270 and HIMARS launchers a lot of options. The M39’s M74 submunitions can sweep clean Russian airfields and logistical sites. The M48 with its penetrating warhead—borrowed from the Harpoon anti-ship missile—can blow up buried bunkers and demolish buildings.”

The M48 variant of ATACMS, with a 500 pound Harpoon-style warhead at a range of 70 to 300 km (40 to 190 miles) could really threaten Russian warships in the Sea of Azov. They may deny the port at Berdyansk to the Russians. And of course, it is always popular to celebrate special events with a strike on the Kerch Bridge.

[FtrPilot]

Here's my take:

Reportedly at least 20 were killed, including 4 pilots, which indicates they were out there working, rather than just parked overnight.

They were out there working and did not get sufficient air-raid warning to take shelter.

This must have a devastating effect on worker morale.

Where's air defense?

When will the next attack take place?

[FtrPilot]

ATACMS don't have terminal guidance, so they won't be effective against moving ships.

A strike on the Kerch Bridge or a docked ship is certainly a possibility in the near future.

[BeauBo]

“you have to wonder how long before the russian army collapses with these losses in men and expensive material?”

That is the big question we have been tracking on this daily thread.

Really, it could be any time, as the Wagner mutiny showed last Summer. But as losses mount, and the old Soviet stockpiles run down, harder and harder constraints are going to continue mount on Russian forces, the Russian economy and the Russian Government.

They could become like North Korea, a police state with an impoverished population, and continue to send waves of Infantry with just basic Artillery for years to come.

But without foreign support, they won’t be able to keep up fighting as they have through next year. They will be running out of money, and many of their major combat platforms, like tanks, attack helicopters and howitzers. We have been watching them empty the old Soviet storage yards from satellite, and seeing those older systems show up destroyed on the battlefield.

Total Russian production of tanks is only about 1/10th their rate of losses, and aircraft seem to be hardly produced at all due to sanctions.

Russia seems to want to avoid any big public draft of another wave of mobilization, before Putin’s election next March. After that however, all bets are off.

Big wildcards are potential breakthroughs (like cutting the land bridge to Crimea, or a big battlefield rout like last September in Kharkiv) and revenues from oil sales.

[BeauBo]

“ATACMS don’t have terminal guidance, so they won’t be effective against moving ships.”

How about docked in the Port of Berdyansk?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Are all the people who come on this daily thread and say we need to secure the border going to support this funding?

It contains 13.6 billion for border security?

For some reason, I don’t think so.

Maybe securing the border isn’t their real goal???

“Biden asked Congress for additional funding. The amount requested is $105 billion. According to US journalists, 61.4 is ment for Ukraine, 14.3 for Israel (including 9.15 humanitarian aid funding), 7.4 for Taiwan and 13.6 for US border security”

[SpeedyInTexas]

500,000 mines here, 500,000 mines there...

“”Measures are being taken to improve the defensive lines on the northern state border. More than 500.000 anti-tank mines have been installed in the main directions of the enemy’s probable attack since June 2022,” Lieutenant General Serhii Naev said.”

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1715353289854709923

[BeauBo]

(ATACMS strikes on Russian airfields)

Any kind of essential ground equipment to tend the aircraft that might be lost in such strikes, that might hamper future operations from there?

I guess fuel trucks are common, but how about ammo handling or Test, Measurement and Diagnostic Equipment? Any low density things that are needed to keep the birds flying?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Confirmed losses: 21 helicopters destroyed or damaged

“Many people have criticised GeoConfirmed’s count of “21 helicopters destroyed or damaged” in the recent strikes on Berdyansk and Luhansk airfields. Someone said in a
@HelloMrBond Twitter space that GeoConfirmed had “counted empty revetments”, which is not true.

I can say that this count is based on VHR satellite imagery that I have seen. These images show that the entire area inside the Berdyansk protective berms was peppered with cluster munitions. This type of image cannot be distributed publicly because of copyright restrictions.

However, GeoConfirmed did make a mistake when analysing these images by identifying a Pantsir as a helicopter.

Here is my analysis based on VHR imagery and displayed through Planet imagery.

8 helicopters were completely destroyed, 6 were damaged and probably totalled and a radar was destroyed at Berdyansk. A Pantsir SAM located outside the image to the east may also have been damaged.

In Luhansk, at least 7 helicopters were damaged or destroyed (one of which was not included in previous public analyses).

Confirmed losses therefore amount to 21 helicopters destroyed or damaged and one radar destroyed.

In a second tweet, close-ups show the visible damage caused by submunitions in the northern and southern parts of the Berdyansk airfield.”

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1715357927056273533

[SpeedyInTexas]

[BeauBo]

“How about docked in the Port of Berdyansk?”

Please disregard, I read your previous post again...

[SpeedyInTexas]

SNIPERed

“Work of sniper from “Ghost” group of the Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyi near Avdiivka

The distance to destroy the Russian is 700 meters using the BARRETT MRAD 338 rifle.”

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1715410195734524307

[SpeedyInTexas]

SNIPERed

“Work of sniper from “Ghost” group of the Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyi near Avdiivka

The distance to destroy the Russian is 700 meters using the BARRETT MRAD 338 rifle.”

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1715410195734524307

[SpeedyInTexas]

SNIPERed

“Work of sniper from “Ghost” group of the Presidential Brigade named after Hetman Bohdan Khmelnytskyi near Avdiivka

The distance to destroy the Russian is 700 meters using the BARRETT MRAD 338 rifle.”

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1715410195734524307

[SpeedyInTexas]

sorry for duplicates