Russia can stand higher equipment losses than the Ukraine because Russian supply/repair chains are shorter & better equipped due to standardization and security.
“Russia can stand higher equipment losses than the Ukraine because Russian supply/repair chains are shorter & better equipped”.
Net of everything, they are burning through their (huge) old Soviet stockpiles pretty rapidly. They are generally losing equipment about ten times the rate that they can produce, and in some cases they can no longer produce them at all (like Tu-95 bombers, or older tank models).
That is a central focus of this thread - tracking Russian equipment losses. If attrition rates keep up like they have been, Russia is on track to pretty much exhaust their old Soviet fleets over the course of next year, and will no longer have storage to draw on.
Then they will have to produce more, import more from allies, or have less to put into the field. Currently, most of the tanks, armored vehicles and howitzers the Russians have in the field in the Ukraine, were pulled out of their inactive storage yards since the current invasion began. The Active Duty operational hardware for their Ground Forces that they started this invasion with, is mostly already in Ukrainian scrapyards. They face hard constraints when their storage yards empty out.
Iran can produce significant (not earth-shaking) amounts of rockets and drones. North Korea has a lot of old Soviet caliber Artillery ammo (122mm and 152mm), and Soviet howitzers (about a year’s worth, at current attrition, expenditure and wear out rates). Beyond that, only China could realistically resupply Russia with main combat platforms like tanks or howitzers (or planes or ships). So far, China has avoided breaking sanctions on weapons sales to Russia.
The Ukraine on the other hand, has more than all of NATO supporting them. From Wikipedia:
“The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG, also known as the Ramstein group) is an alliance of 54 countries (all 31 member states of NATO and 23 other countries) supporting the defence of Ukraine by sending military equipment”
Other countries not in that formal group (like Sweden) have also provided significant combat capability to the Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian forces get support from the NATO sustaining base (depot repair, hospitalization of wounded, resupply) as well as the NATO training base, which has been training and equipping a stream of new units for them.
The Soviet Union looked ten feet tall back in its day, but the Russian Military at the start of this invasion was only about 1/4th of the Soviet Military when the wall fell. Most of the old Warsaw Pact is now against them rather than with them.
Russia’s GDP is less than Italy’s or Chile’s; less than that of Texas or California. The combined GDPs of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group is about 50 times that of Russia in 2021, before the heavy sanctions were applied. Russia is now the most heavily sanctioned country on Earth. The significant financial reserves Russia had at the start of 2022 (its National Wealth Fund and Gold Reserves) are also on track to run out next year (even at above average oil prices).
It is a challenge to maintain the will in the West to pay for the war in Ukraine, but for the West it is more of a nuisance cost (e.g. 5% of the US Defense budget), whereas for Russia they are rapidly heading toward bankruptcy and economic implosion (currency collapse and hyperinflation), likely in 2024/2025 at current rates.