Posted on 09/03/2023 7:33:02 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Indonesia and Malaysia have been discussed among Russians as a possible haven for rich Russians, that offers promising investment potential for them. Now it seems, Indonesia has taken notice:
Indonesia offers ‘golden visa’ to entice foreign investors
(https://news.yahoo.com/indonesia-offers-golden-visa-entice-051654196.html )
“Indonesia is introducing a golden visa scheme to attract foreign individual and corporate investors in an attempt to boost its national economy, a statement from the ministry of law and human rights distributed on Sunday said.
“The golden visa is granting a residence permit for an extended period of five to 10 years,”...
The five-year visa requires individual investors to set up a company worth $2.5 million, while for the 10 years visa, a $5 million investment is required.
Other countries around the world including the U.S., Ireland, New Zealand and Spain have introduced similar golden visas for investors, seeking to attract capital and entrepreneurial residents.
Meanwhile, corporate investors are required to invest $25 million to get five-year visas for directors and commissioners. They need to invest double, or $50 million, to gain a 10 year visa.
Individual foreign investors who do not want to establish a company in the Southeast Asian country. The requirements range from $350,000 to $700,000 in funds that can be used to purchase the Indonesian government bonds.”
“Zelenskiy Says He’s Removing Ukraine Defense Chief in Revamp”
“Zelenskiy Says He’s Removing Ukraine Defense Chief”
My understanding is that the guy getting fired (Oleksii Reznikov) is a reasonably competent patriot, who has performed well through tough times, but has put Government money in his own pocket, to a degree that is unacceptable to the Western donors.
Everybody was doing it in Ukrainian and Russian Governments, but now a lot of the vital aid, as well as the prospects of joining the EU and NATO, require cleaning up corruption systemically in the Ukrainian Government.
Reznikov is likely a high profile sacrifice to the cause of reducing corruption in Ukrainian Government. Because of his distinguished service, they seem eager to shift him aside, rather than prosecute him (maybe make him Ambassador to the UK). Coincidentally, the same day Zelensky announced Reznikov’s departure, he called on the legislature to start legal preparations to join the EU.
Zelenskyy calls on parliament to adopt bills to open negotiations with EU
3 Sep (https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/3/7418282/ )
“President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on MPs to support the draft laws necessary to start negotiations on EU membership.
Source: President’s evening address
Quote: “Ukraine has to achieve several very specific results in the coming months. In particular, it is our strategic political goal to launch membership negotiations with the European Union.
Ukraine has seven specific recommendations from the European Commission. We have already implemented some of them. The other part requires effective work of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine. Timely work, which we have agreed with the European Commission. The law on the restoration of electronic declaration, amendments to the law on national minorities, and, I would like to draw special attention to it, the law on PEPs – politically exposed persons.”
President Zelensky to the legislature, on what is needed for EU membership:
“and, I would like to draw special attention to it, the law on PEPs – politically exposed persons.”
A politically exposed person (PEP) is an individual who is or has been entrusted with a prominent Government function (like Defense Minister). Many PEPs hold positions that can be abused for the purpose of laundering illicit funds, corruption or bribery.
I think Zelenski is being asked to sacrifice a few people for Europe. Arresting Ihor Kolomoisky was probably a big part of that deal. Possibly to advance EU membership process.
Raise rabbits in Wyoming…
“Already the second Bayraktar TB2 video today. Seems like Ukraine has new toys to play with. A Russian URAL vehicle was struck in the southern direction”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1698441184056574412
“How effective are cluster munitions against targets in wooded areas?
Before Ukraine started using them, I would’ve said no. However, in this video you can see DPICM being used & then Russians leaving their trenches, only to get hit by drones. “
https://twitter.com/CasualArtyFan/status/1698489893163237743
A recent Joe Blogs video on YouTube updated the reported stats on the Russian economy (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53fHU3SBzBU )
Some summary takeaways:
Monthly budget deficits started in earnest for the Russian Government in December 2022. That December alone ran a $47 Billion deficit, but there are some annual expenses that Russia doesn’t book until the year end (December report). Since then it has been $20-40 Billion per month, with a generally increasing trend in rubles (which looks different in dollars, as the ruble was significantly weakening all this year).
The biggest factors in the reported budget deficits were increased spending on war, and reduced revenues from oil and gas.
Spending: The Russian Budget has roughly doubled in 5 years, from 16.7 Trillion rubles in 2018, to 29.1T in 2023, because of COVID and the war. 2023 Defense spending was budgeted to rise 50%, but even that higher budget was entirely spent in the first five months of the year. So the Defense budget was raised mid year to more than double (to around $100 billion/year) - now about 1/3 of their Federal budget, even as other budget items like roads, education and health care shrunk, They are however maintaining a stiff 8% increase in social transfer payments, for Putin to buy votes, ahead of next year’s election.
Revenue: Before the war (2021), total revenue from oil and gas was running around $300 billion per year. That surged to around $475 in 2022, with the big temporary surge in prices. 2023 is running at about a $200 billion per year rate so far. Crude oil now makes up a significantly higher percentage of total revenue than before, as natural gas has collapsed, and refined products have declined significantly.
The Russian Government reports only marginal drawdowns in the National Wealth Fund (around $9 billion in the first half of 2023, with $140 billion remaining), and gold sales of less than one billion dollars last month - far less than required to fund the huge $20 to $40 billon monthly deficits.
My observation: It is possible that these budget shortfalls will be settled at the end of the year (December’s report), as is common Russian practice. If so, the gap by then could well be enough to zero out the National Wealth Fund, gold reserves, and then some. I expect that they will change their practices to not zero out the Wealth Fund ( a political disgrace, right before their Presidential election) opting instead to loan themselves newly created rubles.
My BottomLine (not from the video): No more normal financing for Russia after this year (unless a windfall oil price surge occurs). A big break with past financial practices will be needed - likely a hyper inflationary expansion of the ruble money supply, that will crash the value of the ruble, and the Russian economy.
“How effective are cluster munitions against targets in wooded areas?”
Less effective than in the open, but still pretty effective (depending on the denseness).
The Russian ruble just hit 97 to the dollar - starting the week off continuing its slide.
Normally, when a currency weakens, it makes imports more expensive, but at least it stimulates exports, by making them cheaper to others - but not for Russia.
Russia is so hugely dependent on one export - crude oil. Regardless of what currency people are paying in, the price for oil globally is set in dollars, and then that amount is just converted into the currency of payment.
So a lower ruble does not help Russia to sell more oil, but it does make imports more expensive.
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