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Kremlin snuffbox
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets

Where is Vladimir Putin leading Russia, and is there a replacement for him?

In our channel, we rarely talk about those who are usually called the opposition. This post explains the reason in detail.

But something has happened in recent months that deserves to be told.

Firstly, it is confirmed that some high-ranking people from the FSB contacted prominent representatives of the Russian opposition.

This coincided with the activation of Chubais, who left Russia, and rumors about his return began to be actively exaggerated in the spring.

Chubais, although not a classical opposition, was contacted not only with him. In the list of contacts, for example, Khodorkovsky.

Secondly, Prigozhin’s rebellion showed the real weakness of the current government, and among the so-called liberals there were those who supported the attempt by the owner of PMC Wagner to show his teeth to Vladimir Putin.

“A tectonic change took place in the minds of representatives of that same opposition party.

“They suddenly realized that it would be possible to change the regime only by force.

“And when this force appeared, they decided to support it,” one of Khodorkovsky’s associates told us.

According to people close to the liberal party, the first encroachments towards the use of force to change power occurred at a time when very small units of “Russian volunteers” (as the Ukrainian side claims) made a lot of noise in the Belgorod region.

That is, several tens of hundreds capture the regional center, and several thousand armed Wagnerites take Rostov under control in a matter of hours without resistance.

The authorities in both cases turned out to be weak and not ready to fight back.

And now the main thing: what is Vladimir Putin doing now? In recent days, a lot of laws have been adopted that make it clear that Putin has understood that it will not be possible to complete the SVO now - moving on to Plan B.

We ‘re The Kremlin is betting on Trump’s victory in the United States and the weakening of support for Ukraine from the West.

At the same time, external propaganda turned on to the maximum.

We wrote about the change in approach to this a few months earlier.

At the same time, Putin personally felt the weakness of the power vertical and will strengthen Zolotov, who is loyal to him, and his National Guard.

Scandals in the army have shown that Shoigu cannot restore order, but Putin cannot yet remove him.

But the interlocutors do not rule out that this can happen suddenly.

Can another Prigogine appear against this background, but one who is not afraid to see things through to the end? Unfortunately, there is no such candidate yet.

But there are significant changes in the mood of that same liberal opposition.

Will she unite with the Russians who are fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine? So far, unlikely.

But a month and a half ago, this was out of the question. We are very dynamically approaching the denouement.

Now many in power are trying to find a place for themselves” after Putin.” And, preferably, not in the dock.

@kremlin_secrets
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Kremlin snuffbox
Our foreign readers ask - is there an opposition in Russia and why do we write so little about it?

There is opposition in Russia. Weak, exhausted, but there. Yes, most of them left, someone went to bunk beds, but in principle, there are about two dozen of its prominent representatives.
t.me/kremlin_secrets /2549

BRIEFLY
https://t.me/briefsmi

Bloomberg: The attack on a tanker near the Crimean bridge speaks of a new stage in the conflict after the end of the grain deal.

According to Vassilis Muis, managing director of the Greek company Doric Shipbrokers, the incident is likely to slow down traffic to and from Russian Black Sea ports.

Ukraine is trying to resist Russia’s attempts to control cargo flows in the Black Sea, said Nikolai Beleskov, a researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies.

“Ukraine needs to create risks so that you can come to Moscow and say, ‘If you want to trade from Novorossiysk, then let us ship grain from Odessa and other ports,’” he said.

But the ships continued to sail through the strait as usual

==
The New York Times:
The visit of a Chinese representative to a meeting in Saudi Jeddah does not mean that Beijing is changing its position towards the conflict.

But it can help create the image of a responsible and neutral player.

Zelenskiy also recently told his diplomats that the situation would be even more difficult.

In the coming months, pressure will mount to find a negotiated path to peace

==
CNN:
U.S. officials are increasingly fearful that Vladimir Putin is dragging his feet in Ukraine in the hope that Donald Trump or another Republican candidate will take the White House in 2024 and cut U.S. funding to Ukraine.

The US has not received specific information about whether Putin is considering the 2024 election in his long-term plans in Ukraine, government officials said.

But, nevertheless, the upcoming elections are in the focus of attention of representatives of national security and diplomats.

“Putin knows that Trump will help him. Ukrainians and our European partners know this too,” one unnamed source told CNN.

“And while we haven’t seen anything direct about that, I guess that’s what everyone thinks.”

Another US official said they had “no doubts” that Putin was “trying to hang on” until the next election, while one European official said they thought continuing the NWO until the election was “exactly Putin’s plan.”
https://t.me/briefsmi /7049

BRIEF
https://t.me/s/rusbrief

The Russian Foreign Ministry is considering the question of how to secretly inform the Chinese side about the undesirability of Ambassador Zhang Hanhui’s stay in the country.

From the moment he was appointed to the Russian Federation, the activities of the embassy began to acquire a hidden unfriendly character, and the ambassador himself often used his official position for business purposes.

Also noteworthy is the assessment of relations between the PRC and Russia as “friendly”, although most recently Ambassador Zhang Hanhui said that “we are more than allies, we are brothers, back to back.”

The Foreign Ministry attributes such changes in the activities of the embassy to the fact that Zhang Hanhui represented China in Ukraine for a long time