“Mutiny Aftermath Jolts Ruble“
Makes sense that that political risk is what triggered the recent slide in the ruble.
“$43.5 Billion Outflow Takes Toll”
But the underlying fundamentals continue to deteriorate as well. Russia still seems on track for financial crisis.
Like how it was described in The Great Gatsby, when a character was asked how he went bankrupt - slowly for a long time, and then all of a sudden.
Best guess is that sometime next year will be their financial “Come to Jesus” moment, but markets will see it coming ahead of time (already do).
Valuations of a currency is an interesting thing, many factors can influence it. Early on the central bank of Russia did a lot of manipulation, not sure what all they are doing now, but without factual data on the actual economic underlying factors a “true” valuation is hard.
The numbers that Russia is releasing, like China are always suspect, hell so are ours. Employment, work participation, inflation, GDP…. are numbers created by govt entities so color doubtful on their accuracy. Politics always plays a part, but in russias case I would say that level of involvement is much higher.
In the case of Russia, and China one has to be large part Sherlock Holmes to figure out the “real “ numbers
Russia is releasing some numbers but not as many as they used to.
Factors that seem obvious, lower oil revenue(not to be confused with lower oil sales), higher military expenditures due to invasion, effects of sanctions on production(sanction busting is a real thing, but generally those items come with a premium price), costs for loss of production and repairs for the “smoking” accidents that are happening across the federation, and inflation which is high and getting higher all have effects
Russia had a fairly large rainy day fund, but even by their reporting they are blowing through that pretty quickly
Would be fascinating to see the real numbers of production, inflation, tax revenues, expenditures
Putin is a master economist