https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672918703946571776
Anton Gerashchenko@Gerashchenko_en
Some possible outcomes of yesterday’s events:
1. In Wagner PMC, a split has reportedly started between those who felt used and those who remained loyal to Prigozhin after the failed rebellion.
2. Combat pilots reportedly quit Wagner PMC due to their disagreement with the way planes and helicopters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were destroyed yesterday.
3. A vertical of power has collapsed.
No one in Russia can feel safe anymore.
Neither officials, nor oligarchs, nor FSB officers who used to think they were the rulers of life.
Putin stopped holding a monopoly on violence in Russia yesterday.
It was proven that factions with more weapons and determination decide everything.
4. Russia might be facing a bloody war, not a civil war, but a war of clans, armed groups and private armies: Chechens, Prigozhin’s supporters, armed mercenaries, who will separate from Prigozhin or other PMCs and be hired by local clans for protection from invading outsiders.
All large business and oligarchs will probably create (if they haven’t already) private armies, as Gazprom has already done to protect itself.
Conflicts and redistribution of property will be resolved by force.
It will be the new 90s but far worse:
Resembling the Mad Max style and genre of an anti-utopia action movie.
5. The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure.
Soldiers and officers sitting in trenches in the massacre unleashed by Putin, probably finally realized yesterday the utter pointlessness of the war against Ukraine, against the background of the fact that a group of criminals in the rear can pass 600km in a day, sweeping away everything in their path and then be amnestied after killing pilots and civilians.
6. Ukraine is a few steps closer to fully restoring its territorial integrity, including Crimea.
7. What a pity that this circus did not end with the self-destruction of Putin’s regime and Prigozhin faction.
But I believe it will happen again with even larger scale!
Possible outcomes...all in all, I would agree with Anton Gerashchenko's analysis.
The Russian army, it seems, has de facto ceased to exist as a united structure.
I believe this occurred several months ago.
RU logistics cannot keep up with demand. Storm Shadows have only made it worst.
PIF...thanks for the ping.
Russia is a bit fractured and destabilized from the Wagner rebellion, but they have not yet borne the brunt of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
That will be another stress test for the Russian regime and society, and it should not be long in coming.
Someone will need to take the blame. Shoigu and/or Gerasimov seem like likely sacrificial goats.
The stress tests will just keep coming, as long as this war goes on, and some worse ones are coming down the pipeline, like bankruptcy.