Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4154384/posts
“Here’s why Biden reversed course on Ukraine’s F-16 request.”
“At the beginning of the war in Ukraine, President Biden told the country’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, that he could not have American precision missile systems. The White House feared they could tip Russia into reaching for its tactical nuclear weapons.
Then he allowed them.
The same dynamic infused debates over providing tanks several months ago. Now Mr. Biden, who in February rejected F-16 fighter jets as unnecessary, met in Hiroshima on Friday with leaders of other major democracies and told them that he would allow Ukrainian pilots to be trained on the American-made warplanes. He added that in a few months, the allies would figure out how to begin delivering modern Western fighters to a Ukrainian force struggling to keep an aging, dwindling fleet of pieced-together, Soviet-made fighters in the air.”
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 19, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
Excerpt:
Ukraine’s SBU security service has accused a Russian general of ordering the destruction of the world’s largest cargo jet, the one-of-a-kind An-225 known affectionately as Mriya.
“The Security Service gathered evidence on the deputy commander of the Airborne Forces of the Russian Federation, Lieutenant General Anatoly Kontsevoi, who is participating in an aggressive war against Ukraine,” SBU stated Friday on its Telegram channel.
“It was on his orders that the occupiers temporarily seized the Hostomel airport at the beginning of a full-scale invasion.”
If he is caught and convicted, Kontsevoi faces up to 15 years in prison.
Mriya was beloved in Ukraine and around the world not just for its immense size, but because of its six engines, iconic split tail and the many aviation records it garnered over the years.
But given the price tag of building a new Mriya - said to approach some $800 million if not more - as well as Ukraine’s needs and capacity, it remains an open question whether a new An-225 will arise from the ashes before the man accused of ordering its destruction is arrested.
==
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: F-16 Coalition Begins To Take Shape
In a major position change, Biden told G-7 leaders that he now supports the training of Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and other Western jets.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-f-16-coalition-begins-to-take-shape
Excerpt:
... reports earlier Friday that Biden informed leaders of the G-7 group of nations that the U.S. will support a “joint international effort to train Ukrainian pilots on modern fighter aircraft, including F-16s,” Politico reported, citing “a senior administration official.”
That represents a major shift in the administration’s position on Ukraine’s need for F-16s, something Biden has opposed.
“The decision to support the training initiative came together very quickly, officials said, and was made by Biden following meetings with G7 leaders in Hiroshima, Japan, where the topic of F-16s to Ukraine was a key point of discussion,” CNN reported. “UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has been pushing particularly hard in recent days for countries that have the jets in their stockpile to send them to Ukraine so that the country can better defend itself against Russia’s daily aerial attacks.”
While any pilot training, let alone operational use of donated aircraft, will be too late for the looming Ukrainian counteroffensive, there is no indication that hostilities will end any time soon. So whenever the pilots are trained, and they have Western jets to fly, that will be welcome news for Ukraine.
==
Yevgeny Prigozhin, boss of the Wagner mercenary group doing most of the fighting for Russia in Bakhmut, claimed that while Ukrainian troops have almost been fully pushed out of the city, it won’t likely fall in the next two days.
“Bakhmut has still not been taken,” Prigozhin said in a voice message posted Friday on his Telegram channel. “Bakhmut is unlikely to be taken either tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.”
“There is a quarter known as the ‘Airplane’ - it is like an impregnable fortress from a bed of multi-story buildings in the southwest of Bakhmut, where incredibly heavy battles are going on,” Prigozhin went on to say.
“The fighting is going on for the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Airplane area - the last stronghold of the enemy in the city,” he wrote. “Everything that can fly flies from us there. At the same time, enemy artillery and mortars also continue to work on our positions.”
“Despite everything, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to resist fiercely,” Prigozhin wrote, adding that his troops say Ukraine is using “a lot of Polish and Turkish mercenaries. Nevertheless, PMC ‘Wagner’ definitely reached the final stage of the battle for Bakhmut. Unraveling very soon.”
“We continue to press. And then either they will have to retreat, or they will all be destroyed,” he wrote.
“The battle for Bakhmut is moving towards its logical conclusion. Ukrainian formations now control less than 1 square kilometer - we are talking about pieces of territory 700-800 meters. Any attack by attack aircraft is supported by artillery fire. The enemy resorts to counter-battery combat, but strikes chaotically: perhaps, agony, they are trying to somehow hook.”
==
Russian forces continue to fortify their positions in and around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) ahead of a Ukrainian counteroffensive that could run right through the location of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which is located on the banks of the Dnipro River. A potential attack route through Zaporizhzhia Oblast is something we first reported on in December.
“New trenches have been dug around the city and more mines have been laid,” Reuters reported, citing interviews with four anonymous witnesses. “Surveillance cameras at the plant are pointing north across a wide reservoir towards Ukrainian-controlled territory.”
As we reported last month, Russians have had firing positions set up atop some of the plant’s buildings for several months. Now it appears that nets have been erected as well in a possible deterrent to drones, Reuters reported.
“The measures described by two Ukrainians who work at the power plant and two other residents in the city of Enerhodar underline the risks the war poses to the security of the facility,” according to Reuters.
[ F-16 For Counter Offensive | Russians Stand No Chance | Finally ]
••Day 450: May 19
As Russians started relocating their troops from the Zaporizhia region to Bakhmut, Ukrainians decided to take advantage of such developments and hunt down the moving convoys.
Relocation of troops implies that there will be a lot of areas of forces concentrations because one should necessarily gather troops in one place and then put them on buses or trains to transfer between regions. And forces concentrations mean a perfect opportunity for HIMARS strikes.
Today Ukrainians conducted a series of precision strikes on Mariupol, which is the main logistical center that connects southern and eastern Ukraine, through which Russians are transferring forces and equipment. Ukrainians noticed the movement towards the city not only on the ground but also in the sky because today, it was noted how Russian transport helicopters departed from Bryansk.
Local residents reported hearing multiple explosions and seeing at least 4 direct hits on Russian military objects on the airfield west of the city. The Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor reported that Ukrainians hit all residential facilities on a small base and eliminated 150 Russian troops in one strike.
So, by destabilizing the situation in Bakhmut, Ukrainians not only prompted Russians to weaken their defense in other regions but also created conditions for much easier elimination of enemy forces.
Over the last several days, the Russian southern supply line also suffered a sequence of unfavorable developments. Today Ukrainians conducted a successful drone strike on the critical railway connection that ensures supplies to the Kherson region.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainians launched 7 drones, and 2 of them managed to hit the predetermined target. In the aftermath of the strike, Russian trains suffered yet another derailment.
Yesterday, something similar happened near Simferopol. Russian sources reported that Ukrainian sabotage groups detonated an improvised explosive device along a railway near Chystenke, derailing eight train cars. And the third derailment happened in the Krasnoyarsk region, which is on the territory of the Russian Federation.
The Spokesman for the Ukrainian Intelligence Services, Andriy Yusov, gave more insight into what was happening. He said that Russians are heavily relying on these critical connections to transport guns, ammunition, heavy equipment, and personnel to the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions.
Russian sources responded to the interview by raising the alarm about the security of the southern supply lines and predicted a rapid increase in sabotage activities.
Interestingly, we can once again note that the most successful drone strikes involve only a handful of drones. This is a strong indicator that the main goal of the previous series of broad drone launches was to find out the most current disposition and capabilities of the Russian air defense.
And once the map was updated, Ukrainians launched a much smaller group of drones, highly likely to attract less attention.
Russian Air Force is conducting strikes as well. In fact, since the beginning of May, Russians have been conducting massive missile and drone strikes almost every day, with a special focus on the capital of Ukraine - Kyiv. But the most successful recent Russian strike happed in the Odessa region.
Local residents reported hearing 10 explosions and seeing 2 of them. It looks like 2 out of 10 rockets managed to reach an industrial zone on the outskirts of the city. Russian sources speculated that Ukrainians have been using the facilities for western equipment and ammunition.
However, most strikes are unsuccessful. Yesterday, Ukrainians found an almost intact Shahed-136 drone that failed to explode, even after being hit.
The soldiers reported that they had already started the process of replicating the same drone to use against Russians in the future. Ukrainians are also collecting a lot of remnants of Russian cruise missiles.
According to the Ukrainian General Staff, yesterday, Russians launched 22 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles, 6 Caliber missiles, and 2 Iskander missiles. Ukrainian air defense reportedly showed a 96% success rate.
Even though Russian military officials deny Ukrainian claims of such a high success rate, several days ago, the Kremlin reportedly accused three hypersonic missile scientists of treason.
Three days ago, employees of the Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mathematics published an open letter in defense of three of their scientists whom Russian authorities reportedly arrested under suspicion of committing high treason.
It seems like the Kremlin suspects that critical technical characteristics of their weapons have been leaked, which prevents them from achieving their goals with the strikes.
But the biggest news by far is that the United States gave the green light to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets. US approval for the scheme means other nations can export their F-16s.
The Netherlands, Denmark, and Belgium previously announced that they were ready to provide Ukraine with F-16, and now with legal approval from the US, it finally became possible.
US officials also stated that the US would support a joint effort with the allies and partners to train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation fighter aircraft to further strengthen and improve the capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force. Pentagon representatives stated that they would be able to train Ukrainian pilots in 4 months.
••UA forces moved a lot in the southern flank on the north side. UA now 2.5 km from Klischiivka. UA took the road from Ivanivske to Klischiivka - the twisty road is the only connection between the two towns. Most of the land the UA took lies in valleys - fighting for the heights is ongoing.
==
Russians hit in Mariupol were on another nearby airbase, not the main airfield. The helicopters were not target on the main airfield, but rather the barracks and ammo stored on the other base.
==
The English language training for UA F-16 pilots will be just what they need to understand the systems & manuals, not the language in general. Jets could come as early as fall, but more likely during the winter.
The main difficulties lie in maintenance, spare parts and ammo.
==
Denys shows a propaganda video meant to show Shoigu on the front lines at Mariupol and features MiG-28 helicopters. But the video stops and jumps from the copters in the air, and the next scene is on the ground in a tunnel lined with some sort of nets. There is no indication of where or when the following award ceremony took place.
Shoigu uses laser pointer to show something, but it is not shown. They are not only dinosaur-brained. but also in their PR campaigns. There is no way to tell if Shoigu was even in Ukraine, let alone near the front in Mariupol.