Could be some big new here.
“Considering that we have had no other Russian fighter jet losses over the past month, this would point to Patriot system being used for that recent ambush that killed 2 Russian jets and 2 helicopters.”
https://twitter.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1659311032957906945
***
“Defense officials and congressional staffers told CNN that Ukrainian troops have in recent weeks used the US-made Patriot air defense system to shoot down at least one faraway Russian fighter jet. The Russian jets have largely been staying behind Russian defensive lines, making them difficult for Ukraine to target with shorter-range systems like NASAMs.
The Russian planes the Patriot targeted were on a bombing run to fire missiles against Ukrainian targets, US officials said, which Russia has been doing throughout the past year to maximize civilian casualties.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/politics/us-allies-f-16-jets-ukraine/index.html
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 18, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
==
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: U.K. Confirms Combat Use Of Storm Shadow Missiles <——
The British defense minister says that Ukraine has begun using the air-launched standoff missile against Russian targets in the country.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-k-confirms-combat-use-of-storm-shadow-missiles
==
-—> DOOMED UNIT - HOW THE RUSSIAN 10TH TANK REGIMENT IS DECIMATED IN UKRAINE || 2023 <——
Warthog Defense 13 hours ago, posted by UMCRevMom@aol.com
[ Title is a bit misleading | Includes Prigozhin’s rant from yesterday ]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pm5EFngMeI
[ Fatal Combo | They Can’t Stop The Collapse | Russian Despair | Prigozhin Begs Soldiers Not to Run Away For at Least 2 Days ]
••Day 449: May 18
Today there are a lot of updates from the Bakhmut direction.
When it comes to Bakhmut, the situation is very dynamic. Yesterday Wagner forces started to fire at the last block of the high-rise buildings from tanks and artillery in order to prepare the region for the upcoming storming operations.
Some sources indicate that in order to not lose men, Ukrainians temporarily withdrew their forced to Ivanivske, and once the artillery preparation ended, Ukrainians started reinforcing this region once again. The Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, also reported something similar.
He said that because Ukrainians unblocked the flanks and are controlling tactical heights around the city, they are essentially moving freely in an out of the city.
He said that for this reason, the battle for the outskirts can be characterized as an encounter battle, where two forces are engaging as both of them are trying to move into the so-called Domino fortification. The situation is equally difficult for both parties.
Ukrainians struggle to defend the outskirts because it is too dangerous to maintain a permanent presence there, while Russians struggle to move into the outskirts because Ukrainians control tactical heights around them. That is why Prigozhin said they would not be able to take Bakhmut this week.
And Ukrainians continue to push on the flanks. Today it was confirmed that they increased the scale of the operation once again and opened a fourth line of attack.
Previously Ukrainians were advancing from Ivanivske, Bohdanivka, and Minkivka, and today they also started advancing from Fedorivka. The target of the first attack became Russian positions around Sakko and Vantsetti. Ukrainian artillery crews conducted artillery preparation in coordination with drone operators that helped to correct the fire.
And after that, Ukrainians sent an assault unit reinforced with a tank to undermine Russian defense and clear the trenches after the tank had completed its job.
By successfully establishing a bridgehead south of the Vasyukivka River, Ukrainians are setting conditions for an attack on Sakko and Vantsetti, and Mykolaivka, which will allow them to conveniently move along the tree lines and settlements, simultaneously opening access to the tactical heights.
In fact, Ukrainians have already started undermining Russian defense in Paraskoviivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka with artillery strikes on warehouses and equipment and drone strikes on the trenches on the zero line. And this is exactly what Prigozhin predicted one week ago.
Today he made a public appeal and very politely asked the High Command to hold Sakko and Vantsetti and prevent another collapse at all costs, at least for two days.
The reason why he is asking to hold at least this direction is that the collapsing flanks are putting significant strain on his reserves, as the Wagner Group has been plugging the holes around Bakhmut, in particular in the southern direction. Today it was confirmed that Wagner units reinforced Klischiivka.
In fact, both Ukrainian and Russian fighters and commanders reported that Wagner reinforcements were the only thing that prevented an immediate collapse of Klischiivka. However, a fighter from the 24th Assault Brigade specified that most of the troops on the zero line are mobilized soldiers and former prisoners.
He also said that a HIMARS strike caught the Wagner prisoner forces during relocation and liquidated up to 30% of their reserves.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that in order to stabilize the situation and prevent further collapse of the front line, Russian forces started relocating their troops from Zaporizhia to Bakhmut.
The Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic and several military-affiliated bloggers reported that several battalions were relocated even from Avdiivka and Marinka. This is consistent with the statement of the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, who said that Russian forces are deploying additional airborne forces to defend Bakhmut’s flanks.
Independent monitoring organization, The Belarusian Hajun Project, reported the deployment of about 40 pieces of military equipment and at least 200 servicemen from Belarus in the direction of Luhansk.
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian forces began to redeploy additional trained forces from Belarus. Such developments have far-reaching implications.
First of all, the relocation of additional forces to Luhansk explains consistent Ukrainian strikes on the city. In fact, yesterday, Ukrainians conducted another Storm Shadow missile strike.
The former Head of the DPR militia confirmed that recent Ukrainian strikes on military objects in Luhansk were successful.
And secondly, the destabilization of the front line in the east prompted Russians to deliberately weaken their defense in the Zaporizhia region by relocating manpower away from the south.
Maybe this is exactly what the Ukrainian High Command was planning to achieve.
••UA Assault, north of Bakhmut, took 570 meters of ground as RGF troops ran away. UA troops in the South are held up by a river.
Russian military map shows the UA very close to Klischiivka - perhaps a few hundred meters. With these rapid penetrations in 3-4 areas around Bakhmut’s flanks, the UA will likely send more reinforcements.
==
Zelenski had a major meeting with the Military Command to get ready for the offensive, and that preparation was very successful. And good news will be coming in the following days.
==
Financial Times wrote that if Ukraine fails in the offensive, then it will lose support from its allies.
==
NYT wrote that the US is slowing down Ukrainian pilot training. Meanwhile. Politico reports there are no negotiations between Ukraine, the US, and other allies about giving Ukraine F-16s. Media articles seem to depend on the view point of the article’s author.
With the talks with the allies and Zelenski to create an International Fighter Jet Coalition about F-16s, maybe other jets were discussed. From that, a situation may be developing like the Abrams and Leopards. Only this time int will be the Coalition twisting the US’s arm.
Denys is sure that the political decision to transfer NATO planes to Ukraine has already been made.
==
Belarus:
Russia sent fighter jets to Minsk airfield and started to build fortifications in the south exactly like the ones they build in the South of Ukraine.
==
Norway will transfer to Ukraine 8 M270 surface-to-air missiles, as well as three Arthur artillery guidance radars. The transfer is carried out in cooperation with Great Britain - the Minister of Defense of Norway
==
Putin’s bunker was found in his Palace residence close to the Black Sea south of Gelendzhik city some dozen miles and is called the Cape Idokopas Residence:
Inside Putin’s Palace: The $1.4 Billion-Dollar Compound
https://www.therichest.com/luxury-architecture/inside-putins-palace-the-1-4-billion-dollar-compound/
==
USAF published a document on the assessment of UA pilots training for F-16s. One of the two flew a SU-27 and another flew a MiG-29. The 3 US instructors had between 1500 and 2200 flying hours. Which were a lot of hours for the instructors - lots of landings and take offs.
Both UA pilots performed above average progression on the tasks given to them. One instructor rated them above a B-course level
Conclusion was that it will take 4 months of training, with an additional 3 week English course for those not proficient in English, before they are certified.
Full document available his Telegram channel below.
••UAF has shot down at least one Russian fighter jet in combat flight with Patriot air defense systems in recent weeks - CNN The publication emphasizes that the Russian aircraft targeted by the Patriot was about to launch missiles at Ukrainian targets.
==
A big armored group of the enemy including T-90 tanks was destroyed in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk by a strike by GMLRS systems | HIMARS These tanks, most likely, were to take part in the assault on Maryinka.
==
President Zelenskyi went to Saudi Arabia. He will also go to Japan for G7 meeting. I guess we should not expect the huge movement of Ukrainian army without Zelenskyi in his office.
US Military Colonel Says Government Lied About Ukraine War - Colonel Douglas Macgregor
Patriot Radar Station and Five Missile Batteries Destroyed in Russian Hypersonic Strike on Kiev
Following a major strike on the Ukrainian capital Kiev in May 16, which involved use of multiple missile classes including deployment of Kinzhal ballistic missiles against Ukraine’s Patriot air defence systems, new information regarding the strike has continued to emerge. With Western sources having confirmed that a Patriot system was taken out of action, the Russian Defence Ministry on May 18 reported: "According to verified information, as a result of a strike by the Kinzhal hypersonic missile system in the city of Kiev a multifunctional radar station, as well as five launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system manufactured by the United States were hit and completely destroyed on May 16, 2023.” It was previously only confirmed that the radar station, which provides command and control for each Patriot unit, was destroyed. Ukraine received two units of Patriots from mid April, with the first delivered less than a month before the recent strike. The United States repeatedly proved reluctant to provide the assets or to allow its European allies to do so, not only because this would deplete the relatively limited arsenals available to the U.S. Military and its allies, but also because of their extreme cost and the significant reputational damage which their destruction in combat could cause. The system’s failure was widely predicted in light of its highly modest combat record against much simpler missiles than those in Russia’s arsenal.
Three primary factors thought to have influenced Washington to eventually approve transfers of Patriots to Ukraine included sustained pressure from European allies, the danger of Ukrainian population centres becoming unliveable due to Russian strikes on critical infrastructure, and the very serious depletion of Ukraine’s existing air defence network built around Soviet S-300 and BuK systems which the country inherited in considerable quantities in 1991. Patriots are by far the most costly military assets Ukraine has in service, and their delivered has absorbed a high portion of the funds allocated to aiding the Ukrainian war effort - an investment which it was long argued by multiple analysts would be far from cost effectively. The Patriots were assigned to protect the capital following major Russian strikes on critical infrastructure, with their much lower mobility and more limited arcs of fire than even Soviet era variants of the S-300 system limiting their suitability for use near the frontlines in Eastern Ukraine. The Patriot system targeted reportedly fired 32 interceptors at the Kinzhal ballistic missiles that targeted it, all of which failed, with this salvo alone having cost approximately $96 million.
U.S. and its allies plan to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, official says
"In the coming months, the U.S. and its allies “will decide when to actually provide jets, how many we will provide, and who will provide them,” the official said. The news comes as President Joe Biden on Friday informed leaders of leading industrialized nations that the U.S. will support efforts to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s."
@NOELreports 5h
(Ukrainian President) Zelenskyi at the summit of the League of Arab States called for support for the Ukrainian peace formula, which requires the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine and the return of the borders of 1991.
Scorched earth:
@visegrad24 42m
The Russian Army is attacking Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut with incendiary munitions tonight
@DarthPutinKGB 8h
Gas yesterday was less than $30, not the $2000 predicted.
Quote Tweet Dmitry Medvedev @MedvedevRussiaE Feb 22, 2022
“German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has ordered a halt to the certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Well. Welcome to a new world where Europeans will soon be paying 2000 euros per cubic metre of gas!”
The F-16 Fighter Jet: True Cost of Owning and Operating
https://executiveflyers.com/how-much-does-a-f-16-cost/
The F-16 costs anywhere between $12.7 to $80 million, depending on the variant and the country purchasing the fighter jet. (F-35s run $100-$400 Million each)
The F-16C Viper costs (about) $22,514 to operate per hour.
F-16 maintenance costs are not publicly disclosed, but defense analysts speculate it costs $10 million to maintain an F-16 every year.
Over 4,600 F-16s have been manufactured since 1976.
United States Air Force
The United States Air Force has 2,231 F-16s in its fleet.
Belgium
Belgium was the largest initial buyer of F-16s among NATO’s four original partners.
Belgium purchased 116 of the F-16A/B variants and 44 of the F-16A/B-15OCU variant.
So, they have 160 F-16s
Denmark
The Danish military has a fleet of 62 F-16A/Bs.
Netherlands
The Netherlands purchased 213 F-16A/B variants.
Norway
Norway retired all their F-16s in 2022 and placed a new order of 72 F-16A/Bs.
Greece
Greece has 154 F-16s of different variants.
Poland
Poland has 48 F-16C/D variants.
Portugal
The Portuguese Air Force has a fleet of 27 F-16 A/Bs.
Romania
Romania only has 4 F-16s, which they purchased from Portugal.
Turkey
Turkey has 246 F-16s. Turkey is also one of five countries that produce their own F-16s.
Bahrain
Bahrain owns 16 F-16Cs.
Egypt
Egypt has 22 F-16s.
Israel
Israel has 175 F-16C/I variants.
Iraq
Iraq has 26 F-16C/IQI variants.
Jordan
Jordan has 44 F-16As.
Oman
Oman has 12 F-16s.
United Arab Emirates
The UAE has 78 E Block 60 variants
Morocco
Morocco has 23 F-16C/Ds.
Indonesia
Indonesia has 33 F-16s.
Pakistan
Pakistan has 75 F-16s.
South Korea
South Korea has 180 F-16C/Ds.
Taiwan
Taiwan has 140 F-16s.
Thailand
Thailand has 51 F-16s.
Chile
Chile has 44 F-16s.
Venezuela
Venezuela has 21 F-16s.
ISW 19 May 2023:
“Key Takeaways
A Ukrainian official stated that Russian forces have concentrated most of their available reserves to the Bakhmut area and slowed Ukrainian counterattacks in the past 24 hours.
Ukrainian counterattacks near Bakhmut have notably likely eliminated the threat of a Russian encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut and forced Russian troops to allocate scarce military resources to defend against a limited and localized offensive effort, as Ukrainian command likely intended.
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes across Ukraine on the night of May 18 to 19.
President Joe Biden reportedly informed G7 leaders on May 19 that Washington will support a joint effort to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s and other fourth generation aircraft.
The Kremlin reportedly spent 3.1 trillion rubles (approximately $38.7 billion) in an undisclosed section of the Russian budget in 2023, likely to on fund the war and maintain occupied territories in Ukraine.
Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced that he will run for reelection as a member of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia Party for the first time, prompting criticism from select Russian ultranationalists.
A Ukrainian source reported that elements of two brigades of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU) have deployed to border areas of Kursk Oblast in order to conduct counter-sabotage activities and provocations.
Russian sources claimed that Russian troops continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks in the Bakhmut area and slightly increased their tempo of ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces are preparing defenses by flooding fields in Russian occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev claimed that the Russian military has recruited 117,400 contract personnel in volunteer formations since January 1, 2023.
The Russian State Duma adopted the final reading of a draft law authorizing regional elections under martial law.”
Politico: Biden to announce $375 million in military aid to Ukraine at G7 summit in Japan
https://kyivindependent.com/politico-biden-set-to-announce-375/
“U.S. President Joe Biden is planning to announce $375 million in military aid to Ukraine after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Japan this weekend, three U.S. and Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter told Politico.
The package is set to include more artillery shells, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons, the officials said, speaking on condition of anonymity.”
“more artillery shells”
Bravo!