Any word on if the overseas vote has been counted yet and if it has, who got the support?
The latest data I have seen suggested the expat Turks living in Germany were the bulk of exterior votes. And they would go for the opposition. But their numbers, as best I have seen, are nowhere near as large as the anti Erdogen text claimed.
An Erdogan election likely has pro Russia consequences in an overall sense, particularly in Syria, but in a very general way Erdogan is pro Turkey and doesn’t give a damn what the US govt wants.
In this context, the great threat remaining for the second round is US bribes to the 3rd party guy to endorse the opposition. That would likely reduce the Erdogan margin of victory to less than 1% — if that endorsement evolved to mean anything to those voters.
Useful to note that that 3rd party guy is ultranationalist and absolutely not the kind of candidate the US would be aligning with, but an Erdogan re-election probably is the end of Ukraine’s government and victory for Russia. Erdogan, with no election pending, would himself become much more nationalist and Turkey’s money comes from Russia’s gas flowing in the pipelines to Europe.
In the end, oil and gas determine everything.