“Analysis: Moscow’s parade, intended to flaunt strength, instead reveals weakness”
“One tank. Some very young soldiers. And a distinctly warped message.
The display on Red Square for May 9, for decades a moment when Russia’s staggering sacrifice in the Great Patriotic War was sombrely honored, rang hollow. In 2023, it became a backdrop for the Kremlin head’s poor decision-making.
Putin’s speech was littered with references to Russia being sinned against — to his wider narrative that the invasion and war he started in Ukraine was foisted upon him by NATO. It is odd to hear as Russia gathers to honor the millions of Soviet citizens who died fighting the Nazis. The key question will be how many in the crowd felt that dissonance too.
The substance of the parade itself was also telling. There was only one tank: a T-34, a model made 89 years ago, before Putin was even born, raising the question of why they decided to include any tanks at all.
The level of hardware on display seemed thin: understandable perhaps for a military being mauled on a wide and relentless frontline. But again, it raises the enduring bind for the Kremlin.
They keep having to prove their strength, their might, yet have little actual might left to do it with. The exercise ends up being one of revealing weakness.
No jets flew by. The Kremlin itself had — according to its own press release — come under drone attack just days earlier. All incompatible with Putin’s unique sales point — that under him Russia is impregnable and respected again.
In the background too lurks the real war’s progress. The constant side drama with Russia’s most prominent military figure — the Wagner mercenary head Yevgeny Prigozhin — continued to play out. He threatened to leave the key city of Bakhmut unless he got more artillery shells, then said he was definitely leaving tomorrow, then said he would stay. He chose the moment of the parade to release a statement saying in fact Russian MoD troops had abandoned positions around Bakhmut and he had been threatened with treason charges if he left. This is not a message of unity.
And secondly, Russia’s wrath appears neutered. For yet another night, a wave of drone and missile attacks was thwarted by Ukraine’s air defenses. Over the past week, lives have been lost and civilians injured by debris from destroyed drones or missiles that have got through.
But above all, Ukraine’s air defense has proven potent — and Moscow less so.
It raises again the long-term question of this war: Is a weak Russia dangerous or just weak?”
Reminds me of the old Soviet saying: “They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work!”
“1/ Russia’s defence industry has deep weaknesses that mean it’s unlikely to be able to meet government targets for boosting production, according to independent journalists who have interviewed employees working for weapons manufacturers.
2/ The Russian government has pledged to greatly increase weapons production to replace war losses, with Dmitry Medvedev setting a target of 1,500 new tanks per year. But that target seems unlikely to be met, according to independent Russian news outlet Verstka.
3/ Verstka’s reporters have spoken to workers at Uralvagonzavod (UVZ) in Nizhny Tagil, Russia’s largest armoured vehicle manufacturer. It expanded to a three shift operation and is advertising for many skilled metalworking roles at salaries “from 100,000 rubles” ($1,287).
4/ However, workers there and at other arms manufacturers say that poor wages, difficult working conditions, staff shortages, unfilled vacancies and so-called “voluntary-compulsory donations” for the war effort are seriously undermining production.
5/ A UVZ worker explains why positions go unfilled despite the new orders: “The wages that are announced are for 300-plus hours a month at a rate of 174,000. And these salaries are for the locals, who have worked for many years with high grades, who make the most expensive parts.
6/ “But the newcomers run away in a month when they see the real wages.”
7/ The real wages, the workers say, are as low as 40,000 rubles ($516) per month for a normal working schedule. To make the higher salary, someone would have to work around the clock, stopping only to sleep. This clearly isn’t a realistic scenario.
8/ Despite the increase in work, bosses have often not increased wages. At Strela Production Association JSC in Orenburg, a manufacturer of drones and missiles, engineers are paid 42,000 ($546) while locksmiths and millers get only 30,000 ($390) a month.
9/ “People think that we are paid fabulous money here in the defence industry, saying that because this special military operation is going on, our salaries are big. There is no such thing, for the last three years I have been getting pennies, and I still do,” says one worker.
10/ Defence workers are also unhappy at their companies’ habit of making them pay ‘voluntary-compulsory contributions’. This is a common practice in Russian state-owned organisations, including in the army where junior officers are made to pay for barracks maintenance.
11/ “As early as last year,” a UVZ worker says, “we were forced to sign applications to donate our daily salaries to some kind of support fund for the special military operation. It was impossible not to sign. They received about 1,500 or 2,000 from each of us.”
12/ Verstka estimates that UVZ employees have ‘donated’ as much as 60 million rubles ($772,000), on the basis of previous press reports. It’s not clear what the money was used for.
13/ Even where salaries have been increased, this has been more than offset by price rises due to inflation and sanctions, and by the burden of ‘voluntary-compulsory contributions’, as a worker at the UEC-Ufa Bridge-Building Production Association notes.
14/ “I think that salaries have become higher relatively over the last year, but in real terms they have become lower due to price increases.
15/ “And now the salary cap has been reached - it is now being held back by taking away some bonuses, changes not in favour of employees in pay regulations and other things.”
16/ Likely due to the relatively low pay on offer, plants are reported to be suffering from a shortage of workers. “There is a large shortage of personnel, because in principle there were not enough of them, and when the war began, many quit,” says a Strela worker.
17/ The worker shortage is affecting plants’ ability to increase production. At the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant (U-UAZ), a worker says that “we are simply not able to take on any additional volume, there are not enough people, engineers, testers.”
18/ Another bottleneck is the supply of electronic components, which is now heavily restricted by sanctions. Strela is unable to increase production of missiles due to Russia’s heavy dependence on Western chips.
19/ “In missile guidance systems, 90% of the components are Western. And these components are still in use, if Russia stops getting these components, it will not be able to make missiles quickly,” a Strela employee notes.
20/ The military analyst @ian_matveev comments that Russia’s defence industry is unable to switch to a wartime mode of operations because of systemic difficulties which have been worsened by the corrupt and self-serving nature of Putin’s regime.
21/ “In order to increase production you need to build new facilities, new plants, but it is much more difficult and not a quick thing to do. Mishustin said eight months ago that two tank repair plants would be built. And since then nothing much is heard about them.
22/ “Even if the salaries of workers are increased, there is no place to take them. There are not many specialists in this field, or they are already working elsewhere and do not particularly want to leave.
23/ “The military industry as a whole, like all budgetary sectors, is very problematic and the problems are systemic, they cannot be solved quickly”. Mobilisation of industry, he says, is impossible due to the nature of the regime.
24/ “For that you need the state to work and the leaders to be able to lead. But in fact, in Putin’s system, everyone in the field is just sitting there for the sake of high salaries and corruption.” /end”
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