Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 7, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
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-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
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-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
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-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
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-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
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-—> Laser Rocket Firing Humvees Spotted In Service With Ukraine <——
Armored Humvees with four-shot laser-guided rocket pods offer Ukraine a quick moving precision attack capability against a wide variety of targets.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/laser-rocket-firing-humvees-spotted-in-service-with-ukraine
[ Biggest HIMARS Raid | HIMARS Raid Made Russians Convinced The Counter Offensive Starts Already Tomorrow at Midnight ]
••Day 439: May 08
Today the hottest part of the front line was the Bakhmut direction. Yesterday, the Russian Presidential Office announced that they received the message of the Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, who threatened to withdraw from Bakhmut in the coming days.
As a result, Putin forced the Ministry of Defense to give unlimited supplies to the Wagner Group and full autonomy over the entire direction. The same day Ukrainian Intelligence noted a significant movement of Russian forces towards Bakhmut - it was reported that during the day, Russians relocated thousands of troops to the second line in preparation for a massive storming operation.
Today Ukrainians unleashed their HIMARS and conducted the most extensive HIMARS raid of the war. A fighter from the 24th Assault Brigade reported that the strikes continued the whole day and were also supported by aviation and other long-range artillery, such as M777. Another fighter reported that HIMARS strikes were distinctly concentrated in at least 3 areas and also provided support on demand.
One such area became the Khromove region. Two days ago, Ukrainians launched an extensive operation in this region that culminated today at night. As you remember, previously, the Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade was conducting an operation to clear the trenches in between the two roads.
Two days ago, this became the area of responsibility of the special forces detachment Terror. The main goal of this detachment was to breach Russian positions in a fortified shelter, destroy the enemy troops and create conditions for further advancement.
Geolocated combat footage shows that the fighters prepared specific equipment in order to achieve their objective. Apart from the abundance of grenades, the fighters had powerful explosives that they detonated from a distance. As a result, the task was completed, and they started preparing for the next move.
Today the commander of this detachment reported that they were conducting offensive actions from 4 am till midnight. He said that in the aftermath of this extensive operation, Ukrainians have advanced by 1 km forward, which means that at the moment, both heavily entrenched fields are under total Ukrainian control, and Russians have once again lost control over the Khromove road.
Other fighters commented that such progress was achieved thanks to the coordination with HIMARS crews that have been hitting the shelters occupied by Russians, which the infantry struggled to breach themselves.
Ukrainian artillery also intensely shelled and targeted Russians inside Bakhmut itself. Ukrainians fighters reported that after several days of using incendiary munitions, Russian forces assumed that the Ukrainian position in the citadel worsened and conducted several waves of attacks.
Russian sources claimed that Wagner units launched a large-scale operation and started attacking along the whole contact line, while Ukrainian fighters wrote that even though there were indeed a lot of ground attacks during the day, they did not happen at once.
The fighters said that Russians were sending several assault units in each direction to test waters, they would be eliminated by snipers and finished by mortar crews, and then Russians would send another group, which continued the whole day.
One of the main axes of advance became the northeastern side of the citadel. Several days ago, Russians managed to get across the street and establish control over a high-rise building. Shortly, Russian sources published a description of a new Russian tactic, which is indeed quite impressive.
These standard soviet houses only have windows in front and in the back and do not have windows to the sides. In order to avoid Ukrainian fire, Wagner forces started blowing up the side walls on the first and second floors, immediately penetrating Ukrainian defenses from the most unexpected and vulnerable side.
As a result, they established control over the outer building of the citadel, but, unfortunately for the Russians, Ukrainians blew up the whole building after retreating. Ukrainians then also hit with artillery a Russian machine gun nest, which suppressed Ukrainian fire and allowed Wagners to approach the building from the side.
Another main axis of advance became Ukrainian positions on the outer edge of the city. These positions are extremely important because they do not allow Russians to take Khromove and cut off Ukrainians from the west.
In fact, this is where Ukrainian artillery and mortar crews were helping out forces on the ground the most. Ukrainian fighters from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade showed how they basically fired at Russian positions non-stop.
And their join effort paid off very quickly because, as reported by the fighters on the ground, Russians started hiding in houses and basements, and then the survivors retreated. Overall, Russian forces struggle to breach the last Ukrainian defense line in Bakhmut.
The only progress Russians managed to achieve over the last 10 days is establishing control over a small block of houses in the northwest and a line of high-rise buildings east of the citadel.
The Institute for the Study of War evaluated the Prigozhin drama and essentially concluded that his blackmail was not a show but rather an attempt to secure a seat in the Ministry of Defense to get more intelligence about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and secure unlimited supplies to meet the counteroffensive.
He understood that Putin simply could not allow an effective defeat to happen on the biggest Russian holiday, and, as a result, he got everything he wanted. Today Prigozhin basically confirmed this analysis by saying that he needed a lot of ammunition to conduct the biggest storming operation, clear Bakhmut, and regroup to meet the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Fortunately, Ukrainian Intelligence timely noted a huge inflow of troops and equipment and responded with yet unseen ferocity.
Russians have already failed to take Bakhmut before 9 May, and many Russian sources reported that all Ukrainian forces are already on the positions to launch a counteroffensive operation and that there is a high chance that they will launch it on the 9 of May close to midnight.
Tomorrow we will see whether this information was real intelligence or just rapidly spreading paranoia.
••Russians announced evacuation of Skadovsk, on the very south part of the Kherson region, for Administration and later locals. Relocation was, like the previous ones, to Crimea or to Berdyansk.
Panicked Russian messages say the Ukrainian army is ready and located in the Zaporizhia region and also in the Kherson region. Many battalions ready. Russians expect the main attack will be towards Melitopol and from the Kherson region across the Dnipro River.
Kherson region will be the Special and Marine forces. They expect the attacks in a few days, but Denys expects midnight on the 8th because the 9th is the Russian Victory day.
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Yesterday’s attack on Odessa was confirmed to have been a big hub for humanitarian aid.
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All 35 drones launched at Kiev shot down. One drone crashed into an apartment building after being shot down, no one was injured.
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Denys found a Russian video of a long train of military equipment which he believes was released to show the Russians they are ready and to create panic. Train has video has many tanks including Leopard 2s, engineer and de-mining equipment, plus lots of other vehicles.
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Russia launched Iskander rockets to cut UA supplies. There are only a few of them left and are not very accurate. Meanwhile, Russia has begun naming GPS near and behind the front also it’s becoming harder and harder to aim HIMARS. Russia needs to unblocks the signal to use its drones and then HIMARS can to accurately targeted.
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US confirms that the all-Ukrainian Patriot crew did indeed shoot down the ‘hypersonic’ Kinzal missile. This proves that US training was fantastic.
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More Russian public messages said that Ukraine is in position to start the attack. Ukraine cannot keep troops on those positions long, lest the Russians attack them. Denys said this information is not reliable, since it is Russian in origin only.
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Confirmed that there T-54 and T-55 Stalin-era tanks are now one the front line.
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Russia has moved out all the supplies from the evacuated areas! There is no more fuel for vehicles in this regions.
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Transnistria wants more Russian ‘peace keepers’ in their army.
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Prigozhin made another video from a Wagner cemetery far from the front. Denys said, since he did not keep his word to leave Bakhmut, anything Prigozhin says now is worthless.
Prigozhin released another video today, complaining he was "deceived" by Valery Gerasimov, and was only given 10% of the ammo he demanded "or we will pull out". He also claims he has been threatened with treason charges.
"We received a combat order, where it was said that withdrawal from the positions would be considered high treason. This, first of all, was aimed at us ..."He said the Wagnerites were allocated 10% of what they demanded: "We were deceived". Prigozhin said that Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation, personally reduced the number of weapons they wanted to allocate to the Wagner Group.
At the same time, Prigozhin said that his mercenaries would remain on the Bakhmut front: "We will fight, and then we will figure it out".
Then he blasted Russia's 72nd brigade for surrendering land that he (claims he) lost 500 men capturing.
Instead of fighting, we [Russian forces – ed.] are constantly having intrigues. We have a Ministry of Intrigue instead of the Ministry of Defence, so our army is running away. It’s running because the 72nd brigade today [on 9 May – ed.] lost 3 square kilometres, on which I lost about 500 people because it was a strategic foothold. They just ran away...".
Prigozhin uses these video for political gain, and tends to be dramatic and exaggerate, so take his claims with a grain of salt. The 72nd brigade did get pushed back significantly today, but it's actually a crime for Prigozhin to say so, at least in the way he did.