Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 4, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
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-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
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-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
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-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
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-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
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Ukrainian TB2 Shot Down Over Kyiv By Friendly Forces <——
Dramatic imagery of a familiar-looking drone downed by a surface-to-air missile over the Ukrainian capital left many wondering what happened.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-tb2-shot-down-over-kyiv-by-friendly-forces
[ Counter Offensive, 2nd Front | We Found a Weak Spot | Russians Panic | Ukrainians Attack in The Forgotten Direction ]
••Day 435: May 04
It is not a secret that the main direction of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is planned to be southern Ukraine.
Nonetheless, it is also clear that this is not where the first, second, and maybe even third diverting attack will be conducted. If we look at the map of fights, we can see that almost all engagements are currently taking place around Bakhmut.
But as the Battle for Bakhmut is near the end, Ukrainians will likely try to fix this enormous amount of Russian troops in the east and prevent them from relocating their forces to the south. The analysts on both sides are speculating that the next big battle will likely take place a bit north of Bakhmut.
Siversk turned out to be the last stronghold on the line that Russian failed to approach. The key to Ukrainian success here once again lies in clever leveraging of the local geography: as you can see, Ukrainians are controlling the hills, and, on top of that, they are hiding their artillery behind the hills.
Conveniently, such positions are not only good for defensive but also offensive efforts. In fact, the tide had already shifted in April as Russians started digging trenches and raising the alarm about the suspiciously high number of Ukrainian tanks in this direction.
The heaviest clashes area taking place between Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka. Bilohorivka has been one of the biggest Russian graveyards already for a year. Last year in May, Russians tried to cross the Siverskyi Donets River and assault this village multiple times. Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russian assault units every single time, and after a month of effort, this direction was abandoned.
Today Russians are attacking not from the north but from the south, but so far, these efforts have been unsuccessful as well. Recently, Russian forces relocated thermobaric artillery systems to this direction and managed to capture an isolated water pumping facility, but this is the furthest they advanced because the main Ukrainian positions are located on the hills.
While Russians are trying to undercut Bilohorivka from the south, Ukrainians are trying to undermine Russian offensive efforts by assaulting their positions near Zolotarivka. For these purposes, Ukrainians relocated their tanks in this direction and started breaching one Russian position after another.
The main objective of these attacks was to eliminate the bulge between Vekhnokamianske and Bilohorivka and, ideally, create the same bridgehead between Bilohorivka and Zolotarivka.
Shortly, the Ukrainian 54th Mechanized released a video of how they assaulted Russian positions in the tree lines 2.6 km west of Zolotarivka while being under the fire of anti-tank missiles.
After successfully establishing control over all tree lines, the front moved toward the most challenging terrain and the most fortified Russian position - the so-called Cyclops. Ukrainians took time to prepare and conducted storming in several stages. During the first stage, Ukrainians imitated a big attack to force Russians to send their reinforcements.
When the drone operator spotted moving Russian forces, Ukrainians disengaged and changed their focus on eliminating this group. During the second stage of the operation, Ukrainians switched from mortars and grenade throwers to artillery and drone strikes. During the third stage of the operation, Ukrainians entered the trenches with no hurdles and started storming the bunker.
In the face of such devastating attacks, Russians started hastily building new strong points in front of Lysychansk. Some analysts estimate the probability of a breakthrough here as very high because Ukrainians are holding the high ground.
From here, Ukrainians can open at least 3 lines of attack: toward Lysychansk, the oil refinery, and Berestove. If this series of attacks is successful, Ukrainians open the gate to move down on Soledar and in the rear of the Bakhmut group, which would likely be accompanied by an attack from the south.
This would put Russians in an incredibly inconvenient position, as they would either need to leave Bakhmut or relocate even more forces to the east to stabilize the situation. Stabilization of this front would necessarily come at the expense of other fronts, drain the reserves and fix the troops - setting perfect conditions for delivering the main blow.
[ 78th Regiment Herts is an elite unit, originally formed on February 24, 2022, as a separate special purpose company of Ukrainian National Guard, and later reassigned to Main Intelligence Directorate and expanded to a consolidated detachment. In April, it was decided to expand the unit into a regiment under the command of Ukrainian Air Assault Forces. ]
https://militaryland.net/news/ukrainian-army-continues-to-expand/
••Vuhledar:
UA successful offensive. The UA has pushed Orcs back, but not the location or extent. From intercepted phone calls, we know that the Russian troops are scared about the UA major counter attack. This was likely a Phase 1 - gathering information on positions and dispositions of the Orcs.
The importance of Vuhledar is that it is close to a major railroad which, if interdicted, will stop the Orcs from sending supplies and troops in the direction of Kherson from the Rostov Oblast. Taking the city was the major objective of the Orc’s winter campaign which failed miserably.
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In Russia, a truck carrying artillery shells hit a fuel truck, unfortunately, no boom. Ammo truck’s trailer side was ripped open, spilling ammo on the ground. From there images of the scene, tills like it was old ammo - rust on boxes and rotting wood.
Near St Petersburg, a Bastion system - similar to Iskander: ground to ground missiles - hit the safety truck on the way to the Victory Parade.
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Oil storage site hit by drone few miles west of Abinsk, southwest of Krasnodar, ?Kuban? Big fire. Just the start of attacks on Russian oil storage supply sites, getting ready for the Spring Offensive.
Also a drone attack reported by locals on the airfield at Bellbeck, where Russia keeps its SU-35s & 34s. No further info.
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The Butcher of Mariupol, General Massinsef who was dismissed has joined the Wagners. Now one of the Commanders of the PMC. Another reason Shiogu wants to eliminate the PMC
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Another 500lb bomb accidentally fell off a Russian bomber in ... Belgorod again. No boom.
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Yesterday’s Bransk airfield attack: One bomber destroyed and and another damaged by shrapnel. Sources were at the airfield at that time, but no visual confirmation.
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More talk in the Netherland meeting about supplying F-16s to Ukraine. Debate is around which variant to supply.
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Some Kremlin sources wrote that it as a Russian false flag operation.
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Was another drone attack on some administration building in Moscow. Building shown in flames.
DW News { Germany } On Prigozhin’s Threat to Leave Bakhmut on May 10th (36 min ago); 16 minutes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRofbJxJgYU
15 minute special analyzing and pretty much summing up the whole of the Wagner enterprise {no mention of the whereabouts of Dmitry Utkin, founder of the PMC, and after who’s callsign the group was named.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dmitry_Utkin}.
PMC pull out from Bakhmut, on the anniversary of the May 9th celebrations, would be a huge embarrassment for Putin. [ He must be getting used to these embarrassments, there are so many ]. Nice images of Prigozhin speaking set against a background of a vast Wagner cemetery.
Very unprecedented and Prigozhin’s language about his situation and MoD Shiogu leaves little room for Putin to decide things. The whole situation which was very dangerous for Putin, just got way more dangerous.