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“1- How Sweden’s NATO membership hangs in the balance in a Turkish election? • When Turkey goes to the polls next month, they likely will also be determining Sweden’s future with NATO

2- Two people familiar with the Turkish government’s thinking told Breaking Defense that Erdogan decided to drop his opposition to Finland’s NATO bid in order to relieve some pressure from the West ahead of the election, so he could focus on domestic politics.

3- “Turkey wanted to show that it rewards progress and it doesn’t categorically and ideologically block Nordic countries,” one person with knowledge said. “Finland was a bit of collateral, the issues with Sweden are real.”

4- If Kilicdaroglu wins, there would be a quick ratification for Sweden’s Nato bid, per his advisors. But the gov’t might be formed by mid-June and might not be enough time before Nato summit in Vilnius
@sinanulgen1 says, in that case the government may issue a political pledge

5- Kilicdaroglu is inclined to support Sweden’s bid but he might still want to see some progress on terrorism, like investigation against the terror networks after June.

6- A more complicated scenario is that a split parliament, where Kilicdaroglu is president but Erdogan retains the majority. Then Kilicdaroglu cannot ratify Sweden’s Nato bid without some sort of support from Erdogan

7- What if Erdogan wins the presidency, what happens? He would want to see movements from Sweden on counter-terorirsm efforts before releasing his hold. “they can take concrete administrative steps to satisfy Turkish concerns before tVilnius and there is still a chance”

8- The person reiterated that Turkey principally supports Sweden’s membership and “actions rather than words” on terrorism would resolve the issue.”

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1650960015694393359