Swedish politician, Former Member of the Riksdag Caroline Nordengrip in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. She serves in the International Legion.
Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4148227/posts
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 25, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
Excerpt:
... that doesn’t include an unspecified number of 120mm and 105mm tank rounds and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) rounds for the 38 U.S.-donated M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.
This includes more than 1.5 million standard 155mm howitzer rounds as well as 7,000 M982 Excalibur guided rounds and 14,000 Remote Anti-Armor Mine System (RAAMS) projectiles and over 450,000 105mm artillery rounds.
Along with howitzers donated by allies, like the French and Danish 155mm CAESAR wheeled self-propelled howitzers, German PzH 2000 155mm guns, Polish AHS Krab 155mm self-propelled howitzers and British AS-90 155mm self-propelled howitzers, the 160 155mm and 72 105mm howitzers donated by the U.S. have proven critical on the battlefield for Ukraine.
They made a huge difference last fall during the Kharkiv and Kherson counteroffensives as well as the ongoing bloody slugfest in the Donbas.
Given Ukraine’s need to feed its Soviet-era artillery tubes and tanks, the U.S. has also committed over 50,000 152mm artillery rounds; about 40,000 130mm artillery rounds, 40,000 122mm artillery rounds and 100,000 rounds of 125mm tank ammunition.
Ukraine also continues to use Soviet-era GRAD rocket launchers so the U.S. has committed 60,000 122mm GRAD rockets.
The U.S. has also provided Ukraine with 120mm, 81mm, 80mm and 60mm mortars and committed more than 345,000 rounds to go with them.
And with the promise of 31 M1 Abrams tanks and the delivery of the first tranche of 113 Bradley Fighting Vehicles the U.S. has committed an undisclosed amount of 120mm ammunition for the Abrams main gun plus over 3,000 Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles and over 1,800,000 rounds of 25mm ammunition to feed the Bradleys’ main weapons systems.
In addition to the shells provided by the U.S., the European Union (EU) has a $1.1 billion plan to provide one million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine. And Ukraine has sought ammunition from Pakistan as well
[ Secession of The Russian Army | Russians Fight Each Other | Wagners Betrayed | Friendly Forces Abandoned Flanks ]
••Day 426: April 25
Today the biggest news comes from the East.
Here, Russian forces have been devoting considerable resources to the flanks in order to take control of the trenches in front of the Khromove highway. However, some formations refused to cooperate with Wagner forces, leading to an immediate successful counterattack by Ukrainians, which caused a massive feud inside the Russian Army.
Last time I told you that Ukrainian and Russian forces had prolonged and brutal clashes in the trenches in front of the Khromove highway. I also told you that in the aftermath of the last counterattack, Ukrainians managed to reestablish control over the trenches between the highway and the field road.
The freshest reports indicate that Russians did not give up on their attempts to establish physical control over the road. Recent geolocated footage showed that Russians started using tanks to support their infantry in field attacks. Unfortunately for Russians, Ukrainian artillery delivered a direct hit from the second attempt and instantly destroyed it.
Ukrainian drone operators also recently released a video showing how they were targeting Russian units northeast of Bohdanivka. They detected a small reconnaissance group and destroyed it with a kamikaze drone.
In the meantime, the Ukrainian fighters from the elite 3rd Assault Brigade continued storming Russian positions in the trenches. The combat footage revealed that Ukrainians were heavily relying on drone operators. The operation started with a sudden drone attack on the Russians.
During the first stage of the operation, Ukrainians just used grenade-dropping drones and very quickly inflicted huge losses on unsuspecting Russians who were either sleeping or digging in. After that, several armored vehicles delivered the infantry, which immediately jumped into the trenches and initiated close combat fighting.
In order to reduce the risk, Ukrainians heavily relied on drone operators who communicated the situation behind the corners. This also allowed Ukrainians to throw grenades very effectively, as they would immediately receive a correction or a confirmation from the drone operator. During the most challenging parts of the mission, Ukrainians also used kamikaze drones. Such a guided explosive helped to hit a dynamic target quickly and precisely.
The assault was extremely swift, and it looked like Russians simply did not have enough time to receive artillery support. As a result, Ukrainians left behind dozens of Russian corpses in the trenches.
Other footage indicates that Russians are trying to expand the area of operation and overwhelm Ukrainians forces by attacking them simultaneously along the whole Khromove line, and even started attacking Khromove itself. Considering the current setting, the Ukrainian Command decided to blow up the pontoon bridge between Khromove and Bakhmut in order to limit Russian possibilities in the case of similar rapid front-line shifts in this region.
In the meantime, the Wagner Group started being augmented not only by conventional Russian troops but also by other private military companies, in particular, PMC Redut. This PMC has reportedly taken over responsibility for the newly captured by Wagner forces positions, highly likely somewhere near Khromove.
Unfortunately for Wagners, PMC Redut did not follow Wagner’s orders and allowed Ukrainian forces to recapture the area. What is interesting is that PMC Redut was created by Gazprom but is subordinate to the Russian Ministry of Defense, which is why it may not have followed the order on purpose.
This caused an instant and harsh backlash from Prigozhin, who said that completely inept micro-PMCs are undermining the whole Wagner operation. As Russian forces get more and more confident about securing Bakhmut, the question of who is going to take the credit started rapidly arising and brought back intense competition and internal politics.
If different elements of the Russian army continue competing for who is going to participate in the decisive mission, and reluctant units keep abandoning their positions on the flanks, expecting someone else to step up, then Ukrainians can exploit the weakening of the Russian grip on Bakhmut, prolong the battle and drain Russian resources for longer, and possibly even find a weak spot in the less protected flanks, and undo months of Russian efforts by penetrating Russian defenses.
••Russians started using gliding bombs (FAB 500) on UA forces that had crossed the Dnieper River in the delta islands. UA has about 15 “landing boats,” given by the West, they could use to cross the river towards Zabaryne. UA’s MiG-29 radars are not effective, the air force is very small, and it does not have long range missiles to hit the Russian Air Force.
The Russians have not targeted the UA positions near Kherson or Antonivski. UA artillery hit Russian site at Pidisne.
==
Patriot systems are deployed some where in Ukraine.
==
Great Britain delivered to Ukraine thousands of shells for Challenger 2 tanks, including those with depleted uranium, - Deputy Minister of Defense of Great Britain James Heapy
==
US sends experts to Ukraine to help fight Russian cyberattacks - Reuters
“The US Cyber National Mission Force (CNMF) has deployed 43 specialists to Ukraine to fight Russian cyber attacks during the war. These are protection groups and they hunt for common opponents, ”said US Army Major General William Hartman.
==
NABU (anti-corruption Unit) searched one of the main Ukrainian officials. (A small independent organization, however it is not big enough or powerful enough to handle the big government and Parliamentary corruption.)
Incredible events took place last week: NABU conducted searches in the offices and residences of Yury Shchigol, Chairman of the State Special Communications Service.
The media claim that we are talking about the theft of international funds for cyber defense. There is also plenty of information on the theft of the national state budget.
NABU is the only independent Anti-Corruption force in Ukraine. Every government tries to get it under control, but the only influence it may has is from our USA partners. Probably because of the corruption case US officials deployed their own cyber security forces in Ukraine.
==
More rain in forecast for Ukraine. Very unusual weather - usually is stable.
==
Russia has started evacuation of collaborators near Kam’yanka-Dniprovs’ka, close to nuclear power station.
==
Denys’ greatest fear is his country might not change after the war, so entrenched as it is in the Soviet/Russian system. He’s not sure if they will win the war against corruption, and doubts the refugees will return, unless the problem is fixed.
==
Denys does not like Abrams tanks. The Abrams delivered are only for training, not for combat. UA’s MBTs will come in September or October.
==
Ukraine was able to evacuate its citizens, along with some from Georgia and Peru, from Sudan.
==
UK Defense Intelligence says Russian casualties fell from an average of 776 a day in March to 568 in April. This is attributed to their failed winter offensive and current preparation to combat the UA offensive.
Back to Politico which draws the bigger picture. If Ukraine proves incapable of doing what the Pentagon had planned for it it will be pushed into a 'ceasefire' which is hoped to become a permanent solution. The Biden administration will then leave the Ukraine issue behind and fixate on its next big target - China:
Biden and his top aides have publicly stressed that Zelenskyy should only begin peace talks when he is ready. But Washington has also communicated to Kyiv some political realities: at some point, especially with Republicans in control of the House of Representatives, the pace of U.S. aid will likely slow. Officials in Washington, though not pressing Kyiv, have begun preparing for what those conversations could look like and understand it may be a tough political sell at home for Zelenskyy.
“If Ukraine can’t gain dramatically on the battlefield, the question inevitably arises as to whether it is time for a negotiated stop to the fighting,” said Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. “It’s expensive, we’re running low on munitions, we’ve got other contingencies around the world to prepare for.”
“It’s legitimate to ask all these questions without compromising Ukraine’s goals. It’s simply a question of means,” Haass said.
Neither Ukraine nor the supporting NATO countries have the means to extend the war. The original, archived Politico piece read:
The fighting has taken a toll on the Ukrainians as well. Fourteen months into the conflict, the Ukrainians have suffered staggering losses — around 100,000 dead — with many of their top soldiers either sidelined or exhausted. The troops have also gone through historic amounts of ammunition and weaponry, with even the West’s prodigious output unable to match Zelenskyy’s urgent requests.
@KyivIndependent 28m
“Russia has initiated large-scale resettlement of its population to Ukraine’s occupied territories while continuing to forcibly deport local populations, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reported on April 26.”
This ethnic cleansing strategy to consolidate long term control over occupied territories, kind of puts a time limit on liberation by Ukrainian forces.
Yes, of course it too is a war crime.
26 April 2023 Of Russia And Ukraine Situation.
This video provides a brief Front Line Update of areas like Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Zaporizhzhia, Maryinka, Kherson, etc.. We discuss changes made to the front line and analyse the current situation with a neutral approach. We also discuss many events and provide brief report and give brief military summary for that event. We try our very best to give you information as accurately as possible. We get our information from multiple sources from both sides.
NATO and the EU...
Putin did that.
@visegrad24 1m
Italian PM Giorgia Meloni stated today that the EU should speed up Ukraine’s accession process as a reward for its contribution to Europe’s security in fighting off Russia’s invasion.
Swedish politician, Former Member of the Riksdag Caroline Nordengrip in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. She serves in the International Legion.
Brent dropped below $80, for the first time since OPEC+’s production cut.
Oil Prices Slip As Banking Fears Return (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Slip-As-Banking-Fears-Return.html)
“Oil continued the slide from Tuesday when prices fell by 2% to the lowest level so far this month. Prices were dragged down by renewed concerns about the U.S. banking sector after California-based lender First Republic spooked the financial markets on Tuesday, saying it had lost 40% of its deposits in the first quarter...
...A stronger U.S. dollar also weighed on oil prices on Tuesday.”
Why did the Russian ruble fall again?
Jo Harper
04/21/2023April 21, 2023
https://p.dw.com/p/4QKcX
“Since the beginning of the year, Russia’s currency, the ruble, has lost 16% of its value against the dollar and 13% against the euro. This week, it was trading at around 83 rubles to the former and 91 against the latter. This makes it the third-worst performing global currency so far this year, behind the Egyptian pound and the Argentine peso.”
...”The ruble’s downturn in recent weeks has been due by higher imports and heightened foreign capital outflows, Russian officials say.”
...”But Albrecht Rothacher, an author who worked for 30 years in the European Commission, says the crucial factor is that Urals crude only fetched $49 (€46) per barrel in January.”
...”Several foreign companies have pulled out of Russia since Moscow invaded Ukraine last year. Bloomberg Economics estimates that foreign companies leaving Russia last year sold assets worth between $15 billion and $20 billion.”
...”Another factor is liquidity in dollar-ruble trades... The daily trade between the currencies is only about $1 billion per day, down from more than $3 billion a day before the war.”
...”Then there is the growing import costs of Western high tech via third countries like Turkey, Kazakhstan, China and Serbia”
...”The sanctions are having a stronger effect... That includes its growing dependency on China... There has been a substantial move towards use of yuan, which now accounts for over 30% of transactions on the (Russian) local FX market (from less than 1% before the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022), but the yuan is not a fully convertible currency and its instruments are not as liquid as the dollar and euro”
...”many believe the Russian government favors a gradual weakening of the ruble, as it would increase budget revenues without causing inflation. “The ruble is being managed weaker by the Russian authorities in response to the oil price cap and its impact in reducing both export and fiscal receipts. Weakening the ruble helps buoy the ruble value of oil receipts in the budget, so moderating the growth in the deficit,” analyst Tim Ash told DW.”
(Expectations are generally for the ruble to weaken a bit in coming weeks, and then hover around 80 to the dollar. Joe Blogs recently made the observation that the ruble has weakened even more against the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupee this year (33-40%), than it has against the US Dollar or Euro).
During a (26 April 2023) conversation with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Chinese President Xi Jinping outlined his vision of the steps that should be taken to end the war in Ukraine.
Source: Chinese state-owned agency Хіnhua
Quote: “Xi noted his proposals of four points about what must be done [for a peaceful settlement – ed.], four things the international community must do together and three observations [regarding the course of the war – ed.], saying that on this basis, China released its Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis.”
“China will send a special representative of the Chinese government on Eurasian affairs to visit Ukraine and other countries to conduct in-depth communication with all parties on the political settlement of the crisis.
@visegrad24 18m
BREAKING: “Explosions heard near an airport in St Petersburg, Russia.
Local news report that a large number of rescue service vehicles are heading toward the airport.
The Ukrainians have been getting better and better on operations deep in Russia.”
ISW 26 April 2023:
“Key Takeaways
Russia appears to be continuing a deliberate depopulation campaign in occupied areas of Ukraine in order to facilitate the repopulation of Ukrainian territories with Russians.
Competition among Russian private military companies (PMCs) is likely increasing in Bakhmut.
The Kremlin continues measures to codify conditions for domestic repression.
Comments made by Russian officials and prominent voices in the Russian information space continue to highlight a pervasive anxiety over potential Ukrainian counteroffensive actions.
Chinese President Xi Jinping explicitly recognized Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, stating that mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity are foundational to Ukrainian-Chinese relations in a conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Kremlin is likely attempting to reassure Armenia that it is a reliable partner despite the fact that the war in Ukraine is limiting Russia’s ability to play a larger role in mediating the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Kremlin may attempt to use conscripts to maintain peacekeeping operations in Nagorno Karabakh and preserve relations with Armenia and other Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states.
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and north of Avdiivka.
Russian milbloggers continue to argue amongst themselves about Ukrainian activity along the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.
Russian authorities have started sending military registration summonses that include threats of “restrictive measures.”
Russian sources claimed that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) prevented an attempted attack in Crimea.”
@wartranslated 6h
Russian milcor (military correspondent) Zhivov says Ukraine is using FPV drones en-masse; recently, one flew into the window of a KAMAZ truck killing both men inside. He says Ukraine has a 3-6 month advantage in this new technology, and the worst is yet to come.
@nexta_tv 22 hours ago
The U.S. House of Representatives is going to consider a resolution demanding the return of #Ukraine to the borders of 1991.
This was announced by one of the authors of the initiative, a member of the Republican Party, Joe Wilson.
In addition, the document calls for Ukraine’s accession to #NATO, and also requires Russia to pay reparations.
Voice of America reports:
“Ukraine’s military forces have all the equipment, weapons and ammunition they need to launch their long-awaited spring offensive, according to a top U.S. military commander.”...
“”We sat down with the Ukrainians, with our Ukrainian colleagues, and we calculated the amount of materiel they would need,” (Supreme Commander Allied Forces Europe, GEN) Cavoli, who also serves as NATO’s top military commander, told lawmakers when asked about Ukraine’s preparations.
“I am very confident that we have delivered the materiel that they need and will continue a pipeline to sustain their operations.””...
“Assistant U.S. Defense Secretary Celeste Wallander insisted to lawmakers Wednesday that Kyiv’s most critical needs were being met.
“While on the list, Western, modern aircraft, is about eighth on the list,” she said, saying air defense systems, artillery and armored capabilities remain the priorities...
Cavoli and Wallander also warned lawmakers against overconfidence, cautioning that despite the heavy losses in Ukraine, key parts of the Russian military machine remained unscathed.
“Although Russia’s conventional military capabilities are diminished, Russia continues to present serious risk as it retains capabilities in nuclear, cyber, information operations, counterspace and undersea warfare,” Wallander said.
“Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict,” Cavoli added, pointing to Russia’s fleet of submarines.
“Their patrols into the Atlantic and throughout the Atlantic are at a high level,” he warned. “More active than we’ve seen them in years.”
