Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 8, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
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-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
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-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
Excerpts:
Artillery units on both sides of the line, despite the continued duels, are reportedly dialing back fire missions to save up ammunition for the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russian milblogger Alexander Khodakovsky claims that those Russian units not involved in ongoing offensives have had ammunition supplies seriously curtailed. Khodakovsky attributed the rationing to concerns about the potential offensive.
At the same time, a frontline account from the Washington Post highlighted Ukrainian artillery crews similarly conserving shells ... Ukraine’s 56th Motorized Brigade ... 52mm howitzers used to fire more than 20-30 shells a day. That number has dwindled to fewer than three.
The nearby units equipped with NATO 155mm caliber guns are reportedly facing less of a shortage than the Warsaw Pact-era guns. Citing an anonymous Ukrainian military official, the report claimed Ukraine is still firing 7,700 shells a day.
Russian shelling reportedly dwarfs even that figure. Ukraine’s incredible artillery consumption remains a concern for NATO as Western production lines struggle to keep supplies moving.
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Saturday’s intelligence update from the British Ministry of Defense has assessed Russia’s winter campaign against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as having “highly likely failed.” Waves of strikes using missiles and Iranian-made kamikaze drones began targeting the power grid in October. But those large-scale raids have been rare since early March.
Ukraine continues sourcing replacement components for damaged infrastructure, creating a significant logistical headache in moving 100-ton transformers across the country.
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The Ukrainian supply route connecting the besieged city [Bakhmut] to nearby Chasiv Yar is increasingly threatened, as evidenced by the charred remnants of trucks, Humvees, and an M113. See Denys’ report below.
On the other side, Russian ZALA Lancet loitering munitions remain a threat even to some of the most modern and mobile Ukrainian artillery systems. Video shows a Lancet strike on a Ukrainian M109 self-propelled howitzer followed by a fire and subsequent cookoff.
Lancet strikes on Ukrainian vehicles are included in this compilation of attacks from Russian SSO (Special Operations Forces), as well as a purported diver team sabotaging a Ukrainian ship.
[Surgical Strike | We Hit Them With HIMARS Missiles]
••Day 409: April 08
Today there are a lot of updates from the east. As Russians concentrated their efforts on taking the city block by block, almost all of Wagner forces elite personnel were deployed to Bakhmut. With the increased number of targets, Ukrainians started accumulating more artillery systems, and as Russians started moving in their equipment inside the city, Ukrainians started using HIMARS to target buildings that they use as warehouses.
Last time I told you that the speculations about Ukrainians conducting a tactical withdrawal toward the railways was correct. I also told you that over the course of 2 days, Ukrainians were stepping back by back by 1 or 2 streets per day, maintaining a straight front line.
The freshest reports suggest that the rate of withdrawal remained the same as in previous days because today, the front line also shifted approximately by 1 street. In the upper center, Ukrainians reportedly left the eastern part completely because staying there for a long would cost Ukrainians a lot of losses.
This area is almost entirely comprised of 1- or 2-story houses, which are surrounded by the industrial zone and high-rise buildings. So, these positions were pretty weak, and Ukrainians left them in one go.
In the bottom center, the situation is more complex. Here, Ukrainians are relying on 2 lines of high-rise buildings, which allows for a slower-paced withdrawal. After Wagner forces established control over the stadium Metalurg, the line of contact moved towards the Church of all Saints. The latest reports indicate that Russians entered the high-rise building at the intersection, which allowed them to secure control over the church and half of the park.
When it comes to the territory south of this park, it is still under Ukrainians control. For now, the clashes are reportedly taking place in front of school #7. The buildings nearby help to create a powerful block, which gives a relative advantage and allows to exert significant control over the southern outskirts.
Such a setting explains a slower rate of Russian advancement. Nonetheless, when it comes to the stadium Avangard, after several days of intense clashes, Ukrainians were reportedly pushed out of this area and are now holding the line along Kovalska Street.
The new setting also gives more work for Ukrainians snipers. After assuming control over new streets, Wagner forces are yet unfamiliar with which areas are under total sniper control, which leads to a higher toll when trying to cross the streets. One of the Ukrainian sniper units released a video showing how he hunts a Wagner soldier in the gardens in the suburbs.
Ukrainian Commander of the Forces in Bakhmut also released a video today and showed how 4 HIMARS are sending 24 rockets to hit Russian targets in Bakhmut. Some sources say that the targets are located on the territory of the AZOM industrial complex. As you remember, previously, Ukrainians already hit one of the workshops with a ballistic missile Tochka-U, so the use of HIMARS would indicate of continuation of this campaign.
Today a Ukrainian fighter from Aidar Battalion published a video showing Ukrainian positions, and said that they are no longer under Ukrainian control. This a very unfavorable development because it suggests that Russians finally managed to cross Korsunskogo Street and establish control over at least one block of houses.
The latest updates indicate that the second block is in the grey zone, while the third one is held by Ukrainians. It is highly likely that Ukrainians are going to conduct a limited counterattack here because allowing Russians to stay means that they would have fire control over a vast area.
Overall, the most important fights are taking place in the central part of the city, where Ukrainians are trying to conduct a careful withdrawal, while Russians are trying to take advantage of the fluid setting, push Ukrainians as hard as they can and force them to retreat earlier than they are ready in order to collapse the front line. So far, Ukrainians have managed to maintain a relatively straight front line, so no Russian breakthrough is expected.
••Bakhmut:
The railway line that runs through the city was built on a hill and forms the UA’s main defense line. Now Wagners are aided by airborne and regular troops: the 217th Guards Parachute Landing Regiment from the 98th Guards Airborne Division, The 51st & 137th Parachute Regiments from the 106th Guards Airborne Division, the 57th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade & the 10th Artillery Brigade of the LPR. In reserve: 7th Airborne Assault Division
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Shows image of ambushed Ukrainian supply column near Khromove of ~14 vehicles with vans, cars, 1 T-64, 3 Humvees, 1 Western IFV.
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Water in the trenches is still ankle to waist deep.
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Ukraine uses limited forces to defend Bakhmut, while Russians use all of their forces to take the city.
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Spring Offensive:
Russian mil-bloggers imbedded with Russian forces say with all the problems the Russian army is facing now - from morale to ammo - the Ukrainian offensive will devastated the Russian area. They are scared. Russian mil-bloggers tried to get in touch with Russian Command, but the Russian Command does not care.
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Russian defense lines in the South are useless; they are not made according to any military standard.
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Zelenski signed order for 200 Rosomak IFVs and hundreds more later.
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There are thousands of Western provided vehicles that have not been used so far.
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Denys things there will be two vectors: one to Melitopol and the other to Mariupol, and then take Berdyansk from which UAVs can be launched to take out the Kerch bridge. [This plan involves taking 3 major cities, has 3 front lines: on the east, west, south, does not seem workable as a rapid offensive. Going through Kherson does not involve any major cities until Crimea, has only 2 front lines: south and east. Which raises the question: is Crimea the objective or not?]
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**Volunteers were able to build around 50,000 FPV [First Person View] drones for the offensive.**
FVP drone has stronger signal than DJI drones & is less susceptible to interference. Some fly at 200 kph. Russian Army is the Soviet Army and, as such, is less flexible to introduce something new like masses of drones. UA even has ranks for Drone Operator, Drone Pilot, FPV Drone Operator.
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October 19, 2022, Zaporizhzhia:
600 elite Ukrainian troops positioned themselves on the right riverbank of the Dnipro River at night. This was across from Enerhodar nuclear plant. The boarded 30 armored patrol boats and launched an assault on the Russian positions, over 6 miles away across the water. A small team made it to shore and got caught in a 4 hour long firefight. They retreated under heavy fire. Offensive failed and the UA retreated back to the north bank.
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Russia built a 70 km long tank trench from Melitopol to Marynlvka towards Berdyansk, mostly in a straight line, with some curvature over a length that it becomes straight. Mostly useless.
What? You didn’t go to brunch with your girlfriend?