Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 1, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
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-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
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-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
[Counter Offensive Canceled | Everything Changed in One Day | Unexpected: Ukrainians Forced to Cancel Bakhmut Counter
••Today the biggest news is coming from the east.
Here, Ukrainians had been preparing to exploit the fact that Wagner forces overstretched the front line under their control and conduct a massive counterattack by hitting their vulnerable flanks.
Ukrainians have accumulated up to 80,000 troops in Donbas, pulled in a lot of equipment, however, all the plans were changed in 1 day because Bakhmut faced the biggest snowfall of the decade and rendered the ground unusable. [Waist deep snow]
Last time I told you that despite the continuous high intensity of fights, Ukrainians did not run out of supplies and continued holding defense in Bakhmut. I also told you that it was recently revealed that Ukrainians deliver supplies via tunnels, which explains why the Ukrainian defense is so resilient.
Since Russian mass media published information about tunnels two days ago, it means that the Wagner forces extracted it from Ukrainian prisoners of war around a week ago. And this was exactly the time when Wagner forces started noticeably shifting their focus to the city, and the number of assaults on the flanks started to decrease.
In fact, the United Kingdom Ministry of Defense assessed on 25 March that the Russian offensive efforts around Bakhmut are stalling.
1. Stalling due to extreme attrition. UA faces suffered heavy losses.
2. Rising tensions between PMC an RGF commands;
3. Russian shift of operations focus to Avdiviika sector in the south and to their Kremina-Svatove sector in the North. Overall, a return to a defense posture.
On the same day, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces noted that Russian forces conducted 18 ground attacks near Bakhmut even though usually they conducted up to 50. The next day, he noted that Russian forces seemed to be maneuvering with reserves.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that unspecified conventional Russian forces are reinforcing the Wagner Group around Bakhmut. At the same time, Russian bloggers launched a crowdfunding campaign, automatically disclosing that Russians have relocated airborne units to Soledar to reinforce Wagner’s northern flank. Later it was also revealed that certain motorized elements augmented Wagner forces in the area.
The Institute for the Study of War assessed the situation and stated that due to the ongoing process of substitution of different elements of Russian forces, the pace of operations slowed along critical sectors of the front, giving Ukrainian forces an increased opportunity to regain the initiative.
And this is exactly what started to happen. Ukrainians conducted a tank assault on the Sloviansk highway and pushed Russians from one of the highest positions in the region. Ukrainians pushed Russians from the tree lines on the hills in front of the Khromove highway, which means that Russians no longer can use Anti-Tank Guided Missiles to hit Ukrainian vehicles on the highway. And recently released 3-day-old footage also shows that Ukrainians conducted a successful counterattack south of Ivanivske, pushing Russians away from the tree line in front of the village.
The Head of the Wagner forces, Prigozhin, started to worry about the security of his flanks. Unfamiliarity with the local landscape as well as poor equipment, started playing a role. The poor quality of equipment is obvious since they had to launch a crowdfunding campaign.
Prigozhin called for conventional Russian forces around Bakhmut to hold the flanks and even made a video with a map showing how catastrophic would be a failure to do so.
It seemed like the conditions for the Ukrainian counteroffensive had been becoming better until the weather gave everyone a huge surprise. Two days ago, the temperatures dropped, and it started raining with snow.
The temperatures continued to drop, and already yesterday, everything was covered with snow. Snowfall in April is an anomaly in and of itself, but on top of that, this snowfall turned out to be the biggest of the decade. The snow completely covered the ground and trenches and made infantry fights impossible. In some places, the snow is so deep that it reaches the waist.
Needless to say that when so much snow thaws, all trenches will turn into swimming pools and the ground to mud. And the situation could improve rapidly if these days were immediately followed by a week or two of really hot and sunny weather, but the current forecast indicates that there will be 9 rainy days in the next 2 weeks. With the conditions that Ukrainians are facing right now, the counteroffensive operation in April will likely be canceled.
Overall, despite favorable changes on the ground, such as the substitution of forces that are protecting Russians flanks, and the fact that their forces are less capable of protecting them, Ukrainians still will not be able to leverage their recent tactical gains to launch a counteroffensive due to the heavy snowfall. But there is a positive side as well.
First of all, Russians also cannot attack, giving Ukrainians more time to import Western equipment and train 8 newly formed assault brigades, as reported by the Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs. And secondly, Ukrainians managed to improve the security of the highways right on time and will be able to use them when the ground turns to mud.
••On more crack in the Russian Federation. Girkin, aka: Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin | Trilkov Rudinov | other names, just created The Angry Patriots of Russia Club. They support the current regime, but if it collapses, they say they will take power; no one, not even Putin was ready for this long term war, and the Russian economy lacks the resources to handle it. They want to mobilize all of Russia to fight in Ukraine.
They are more radical than the current regime. But they are one of many voices that believe the current regime cannot solve the problem Putin created. And this new group does not like the PMC or private militaries - they want the Russian military to be a single force. Denys says they are likely supported by some oligarch, and the members look like a meeting of Russians alcoholics.
Crimea:
Russian have decided to dig their beach trenches in a zig-zag instead of straight lines. But why? Ukraine has no marines, no landing craft, no one trained in amphibious warfare.
However, some inland trenches are still built in straight lines. Others, built by the book, protect the two main access roads. However, trenches will not every effective as in that region: the land is absolutely flat with no hills, no trees. Only Russian aviation can protect these lines, but they are suseptable to all manner of anti-air defensives.
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Denys shows a cell phone signal map overlaid on a troop map with most signals concentrated in the north and east, with the most signals in Donbas. Easier to attack in south then in Donbas.
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Denys thinks that if Putin starts to lose power or a collapse begins, China would dare to take parts of Russia. [Russia would have to be really weak so as not to show up the inexperienced PLA and with minimal losses so was not to start an internal uprising.]
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Mentions armor - the T-90M, based on Soviet T-72, designed around a tractor motor built in 1920s. They can only build 20 of these ‘modern’ tanks a year.
All of the aiming/sighting equipment was made in France by failed companies; other electronics come from Japan; ball bearings come from Sweden; manufacturing equipment parts comes from the West; Russia cannot produce machine tools without Western parts; factory labor is unskilled.
China could make some of these parts, but that would take years, not months, plus precise equipment requires Western parts.
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News about the Antonov 225, destroyed in the first hours of the invasion. Undamaged port side engines have been removed, the cockpit area separated from main fuselage and the cockpit area cut into two parts, at the tails section removed. There is a spare fuselage in Kiev. Cover over hanger has also been removed as it was failing.
The 4 unique ending struts have been lifted off the ground and have suffered some damage. There are no others. But Denys thinks the 225 will be rebuilt.
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The 100 Polish Rosa IFVs Ukraine will buy look like Strikers, but are amphibious. [Kinburn Spit crossing?]
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Ukraine used a Tochka U on the Bakhmut factor after the Russian took it, crushing the factory.
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Kiev Lavra pro-Russian church to be put out of their building. The ‘manager’ arrested and placed on 60 days home arrest for spreading Russian propaganda.
It comments to itself.