Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 29, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
Excerpts:
Ukraine needs long-range air defense systems and fighter aircraft to deal with the guided bombs Russian aircraft are launching more frequently, Air Forces spokesperson Col. Yurii Ignat said Tuesday on Ukrainian national television, according to The New Voice of Ukraine media outlet.
“We can see a recent increase in the activity of their tactical aircraft that launch not only long-range missiles, but also guided bombs on the areas close to the frontline,” Ignat said.
The best way to counter this threat is to keep Russian aircraft, which launch missiles and guided bombs, away from the border and the frontline, he added.
Russia said Ignat, is using FAB-500 Soviet-designed air-dropped bombs that have been modernized to guided ones.
”It’s guided bombs of the Soviet times with ‘wing-kits’ attached to them that are capable of targeting by GPS coordinates. A Russian fighter jet can stay beyond the reach of our air defense and drop bombs from a distance of about 40-50 km [about 25 to 31 miles] away from the border or the frontline,” Ignat said.
[This is where the Patriot batteries with their 150 mile range could be used in any counterattack this Spring.]
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently visited munitions plants as his nation tries to boost its production of ammo that it is running through [using] at the incredible pace of more than 400,000 shells per month, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said earlier this month, according to FT.
The U.S., meanwhile, will double monthly production of 155mm artillery shells to 24,000 by year’s end and increase it sixfold within five years, Army Undersecretary Gabe Camarillo said Tuesday, according to Defense One.
All told, the Pentagon will spend $1.45 billion to upgrade production facilities in an effort to replenish U.S. stocks and to provide more rounds to Ukraine, Camarillo told reporters at the Association of the U.S. Army’s Global Force Symposium here. In addition, the Army is also boosting production of Javelin anti-tank missiles and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems, or GMLRS, he said.
Production of Javelin missiles will more than double to 330 a month, and production of launchers will double to 41 a month, Camarillo said, according to Defense One. It will cost $349 million to add factory lines, purchase equipment, and hire second shifts, he said. The Army is also upping monthly GMLRS production from 566 missiles to 1,110 by 2026, Camarillo said.
[Ukrainians Unleash Elite Snipers in Bakhmut | Death Zones | They Kill Everyone in 2km Radius]
••Day 399.
Today there is a lot of news from the east.
Here, despite the tough urban fighting, Russian forces have started making notable progress inside the city.
They have recently secured new positions in the AZOM factory, they also have advanced towards the city center, however, this is where the biggest residential apartment complexes start, so Ukrainians deployed their most elite sniper units and turned many areas into uninhabitable
death zones.
Last time I told you that Ukrainians doubled down on their efforts to push Russians away from the Khromove highway and conducted extensive artillery preparations, which were followed by aggressive assaults.
I also told you that Ukrainians conducted a counterattack on the Sloviansk highway and successfully captured Russian positions on the local heights.
The freshest reports suggest that Wagner forces are giving into the pressure and gradually retreating from their positions in the fields because some Ukrainian troops said that Russians no longer control the Khromove highway with their Anti-Tank Guided Missiles. Even though these systems have a range of up to 6 km, it only took to push them by around 700 meters because if we look at the topographic map, we can see that they were pushed behind the hill.
Recent footage confirms that Ukrainians are delivering small batches of ammunition, although they are still driving as fast as possible to avoid mortar and artillery fire.
When it comes to the Sloviansk highway, it looks like Ukrainians decided to develop their success further and push Russians out of the Zaliznianske area. The assault was rapid and relatively heavy. If previously, Ukrainians here used only one tank and a squad of infantry to capture the Russian strongpoint, then in this attack, Ukrainians used at least two tanks, two armored fighting vehicles, and at least one platoon of infantry.
It looks like the attack went wrong: Ukrainian armored vehicles got immobilized too far from Russian positions, which is why the attack was immediately aborted, and Ukrainian infantry in the background started slowly walking away while the tank still fired several rounds at Russian positions and retreated as well.
It looks like the intensity of fights will continue slowly increasing because Ukrainians are devoting bigger and bigger assault units in this direction, although for now, they are not rushing and seem to be very cautious with their commitment of significant resources.
Ukrainian forces have also started releasing a lot of combat footage with snipers. One of the videos shows how a Ukrainian sniper is hunting on Russian reconnaissance groups in the fields around the Khromove highway, where he revealed a group consisting of 5 troops, waited until they got together, and eliminated the whole squad. But most snipers are currently located inside Bakhmut.
In a recent interview, one of the Ukrainian snipers in Bakhmut said they usually work with targets at very close distances of around 300 meters, although in some areas it is still possible to work with targets more than 1 km away. Being shot from such small distances means that the enemy has basically no chance of surviving.
Right now, Ukrainians are mostly located on the territories of huge residential areas with high-rise buildings, while Russians are predominantly located on the outskirts where there are only 1-story houses. This setting greatly favors Ukrainian snipers and allows them to have significant control over the approaches and support the units that are engaging in close-combat fighting.
With an abundance of potential firing positions, many Russian forces get trapped inside the houses with no chance of running away. The only thing they can and usually resort to, unless communication is blocked, is shelling the whole house if they can identify it. That is why the Russian pace of advancement is usually equal to the pace at which the artillery can reduce one residential area after another.
Despite the heavy artillery fire, the Commander of Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut once again visited Ukrainian positions inside the city and told everyone to use the fortified infrastructure of the city for defense as intelligently as possible and aim to inflict disproportionate losses to the enemy.
The Ukrainian President has also recently paid a visit in the Bakhmut direction. At that time, the roads were still under fire control of Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, so for safety reasons, he visited Ukrainian positions in Chasiv Yar and gave medals to the best soldiers.
Overall, the control over the substantial portion of the high-rise building inside the city creates favorable conditions for holding defense and inflicting high losses even to the most capable Russian assault units.
The increasing intensity of attacks and the engagement of a lot of heavy equipment on the Sloviansk highway suggests that Ukrainians are preparing for something big. And the involvement of the High Command in the toughest fights in Ukraine gives Ukrainian troops confidence and the necessary moral boost for continuing to perform at the highest level.
Explosion at the Gvardeyskoye [Hvardiyske] Naval Air Base, Crimea [home of the the 37th Composite Aviation Regiment, which flies Su-24M Fencer swing-wing combat jets and Su-25SM Frogfoot ground attack aircraft]. Russian claims, despite huge smoke clouds, it was just a Russian fighter breaking the sound barrier. Local reports say it was a drone attack. No official details released.
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Big gas pipeline explosion in Russia.
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Russian Eurals oil price slightly >$30 barrel. Russia still has enough resources to last a few more years before it will collapse like after the Afghan war where it took 10 years to lose and 3 to collapse.
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Ukraine got Patriot systems but are no deployed. Denys thinks they are waiting for the Spring counterattack to begin, before deploying them closer to the front lines to cover UA forces against Russian air. UA still does not have enough air for a full scale attack, so he thinks the Patriots could compensate for the lack of sufficient air.
This is especially needed since Russia has deployed their best air: the 4th generation SU-35 with better radar and long range missiles.
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Bakhmut:
UK intelligence: lack of troops has hurt PMC attack frequency [heavy combat losses and release of 5,000 convicts]. PMC troops are exhausted which was the goal of the UA operation. PMC head says their destiny is to die in Bakhmut taking UA troops with them. He got many likes from the Russian public on that statement. Question is just what does the public like: them dead, or dedication to taking the city?
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Germany to invest 12 billion Euros into their economy to build more weapons for Ukraine.
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UK MoD, Ben Wallace says the Russian has around 220,000 casualties so far. This is more than the number of troops they started the war with in Feb 2022.
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Ukraine MoD, Resnick, says the counterattack should start late April-beginning of May. We know that the UA has from public information concentrated a large force in the Zaporizhzhia region. Now we know, and so do the Russians, where and when the offensive will begin. But he also muddied the waters, saying, ‘we are also planning on many other directions and are just waiting for the proper time and conditions, but mainly on the weather’.
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Zelensky said that if Russia takes Bakhmut, then all their sacrificed lives would be for nothing, and would be time to begin peace negotiations. [This went over with the public like a lead ballon.]
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T-55 modernization: armored skirts and contact plates on the turret. May have a thermal camera, but no modern sights. Gun has no stabilization and no compensation for gasses when fired [gasses remain in tank. Tank has to stop before firing.] Best thing it is light at 40 tons and has a powerful engine [designed in the early 20th century, pushing the unit to 32mph max], with good maneuverability.
Used for its intended purpose, the T-55 becomes a death trap, as most any modern weapon can penetrate it. The gun cannot penetrate any other tank on the battlefield. The UA’s T-64 would demolish it. Can only be used to protect infantry and artillery [as well as guarding check points behind the lines.] Jurassic era tank!
Excerpts:
You know, how’s this all guessing, when’s this gonna happen? Or whatever. And you know, if you step back, and don’t get caught up in the terrible fighting that’s happening every day in trenches and in these destroyed cities. But step back from it and think, look at the map after nine years, Russia controls barely 15% of Ukraine.
The only part that really matters for them is Crimea and the land bridge that connects Crimea back to Russia, plus this famous Kersh bridge. That’s all they really care about. And the Ukrainian Journal staff sees this, and so I think they’re going to be able to penetrate.
I mean, when I hear, oh my God, there’s miles and miles and miles of trenches, great. They’re filled with unlucky conscripts. And most of ‘em are going, are not gonna be attacked because they’re out somewhere that doesn’t need to be attacked.
The most unlucky ones are the ones that are on this, what probably ends up being a, I don’t know, 50 or 60 kilometer wide area where the main effort’s gonna happen.
It’s gonna be comprehensive, combined arms, tanks, mechanized infantry, self-propelled artillery, armored engineers.
I think you’re gonna see extensive effort by partisans, as well as special forces throughout the depth of this penetration. And I think we’re gonna see a lot of Russian prisoners, and you’re gonna see people leaving, and it’s the kind of thing that can really be decisive.
Of course, you know, I have Air Force friends that watch closely Ukrainian Air Force, and they say the sortie generation is probably about 10% of capability, and they’re not doing what you would do normally as much.
And I think that the Russian Air Force, and, and I say this as the infantry soldier, that the Ukrainian Air Force is probably husbanding aircraft as well, to be a part of this here ver this strike is going to take place. So I am, I remain very optimistic, and I think that Crimea could be liberated by the end of this summer, or by September.
So if you, when you look at the map, of course, if the Russians retain control of Crimea, they block access in and out of the Azov sea.
So even if all of Donbas were liberated and Mariupol and Berdansk were re returned to Ukrainian sovereign control, they would never be able to rebuild as major seaports because Russia still controls access in and out of as of sea. So that, that’s a major problem for rebuilding Ukraine’s economy. Odessa is exactly 300 kilometers straight line distance from Sevastopol ...
So the Russian Black Sea fleet is able to disrupt anything coming in and out of Odessa. I mean, this grain deal. Why in the hell does Russia get to say whether or not Ukraine can export grain? And it’s only because of the Black Sea fleet sitting right there. So that this is why I think Crimea is such a decisive bit of terrain for the long haul.
And of course, it’s also the launching pad when Black Sea fleets right there, they sail out, they launch missiles against apartment buildings, and they go back in the port because they’re terrified of getting anywhere too close to the Ukrainian shoreline, air bases, multiple places from which the Russians are launching, drone strikes, missile strikes, air strikes, and there’s this huge logistics hub at Dzhankoi on the northern part of the Crimea Peninsula.
So this is the, the foundation the jumping off point, if you will, for the next war. This is why it has to be eliminated. And you’re right this would, the loss of Crimea would create serious, serious problems. It’s hard to imagine that Putin remains in power, after that.
I don’t seek regime change, but I think I do seek, hope that Ukraine is successful in regaining, in winning and regaining sovereignty, and that the Russians are held accountable war crimes that these thousands of children are brought back home to Ukraine and that Ukraine is able to rebuild itself and defend itself in the future. That that won’t happen if the Russians retains Crimea.
We should not be scared of Russia losing. I can’t imagine that there’s somebody worse than Putin waiting to take over. There may be some somebody more evil, but in terms of ability to do terrible things, it is not gonna be any worse. And, and I think that the Russian people will have to decide what comes next for them.
“I can’t imagine that there’s somebody worse than Putin waiting to take over. There may be some somebody more evil, but in terms of ability to do terrible things, it is not gonna be any worse”.
You ain’t too bright. And you certainly don’t know history.
So much at stake.
Godspeed, Ukraine!