Posted on 03/20/2023 8:20:24 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
“However, the part of the drone wing that flew into Dzhankoy, published by the RF, looks 1 in 1 like our beloved Phoenix Ghost codenamed Mikola-1
Even the handwriting in which the number is written matches.
this suggests that the blow was delivered by several drones at once”
https://twitter.com/Feher_Junior/status/1637939975441518593
“Speculation on some Ukrainian channels, these drones that hit Dzhankoy might have been Phoenix drones or Mugin-5”
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1637938380074778629
Below is a pic of the Mugin-5. Your drone pic sure looks like one of the vertical tails from a Mugin-5.
“De Drone, De Drone”
You got the reference. You win the prize.
“Since the Kerch railway bridge is out order I believe that the only way to transport the missiles to Sevastopol is by railway through occupied territory. And Dzhankoy is a large railway hub.”
https://twitter.com/Nowhere1110/status/1637944091064299522
Undoubtedly a huge win for UKR intel.
My guess is that Partisans have been monitoring the train traffic through Dzhankoy railway hub for many months. Perhaps they noticed that certain trains would have armed guards stationed nearby whenever they stopped at Dzhankoy.
BeauBo...I hope our friend Chuck will have something to say about this.
Excellent idea how many does Ukraine still have left, would make a big difference
The reason the west is not so big on artillery is we use aircraft and precision bombs. Imagine-52 dropping a full load on Wagner position each targeted
I have no idea what russias ammunition status is, how much they have, what condition it is in or what their production level is
What I do believe is that the Russian ability to launch a sustained successful mechanized breakout is slim to none
What they have is lots of men and lots of artillery
That is a combination to make slow grinding progress
Artillery without men is just punching holes. Men without artillery is a slaughter
What I do know is that Russian logistics is not good and denying ammunition is the same as them not having any
If the Ukrainians longer range stuff take out critical rail infrastructure, bridges, rail stations… they will have to rely on trucks and that is certainly one thing they are short on and susceptible to interdiction
If the Ukrainians can do this then the slaughter magnifies and a Ukrainian offensive is possible
Bridge needs to be hit again, for logistic reasons but even more political. If Putin can’t protect his bridge that will say a lot and even thought they can’t say it the Russians will know it too
Here is a possible hit on a shipment of cruise missiles in Crimea.
“Ukraine hints it hit Russian missiles in occupied Crimea”
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Ukraine’s military intelligence agency reported what appeared to be a brazen attack late Monday on Russian cruise missiles being transported by train in the occupied and illegally annexed Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula.
The region’s Russian-appointed governor reported an incident in the area of the same Crimean town, Dzhankoi in the northern part of the peninsula, though he did not mention cruise missiles as an attack target.
None of the reports could be independently verified.
“Ukraine Celebrates Destruction of Russian Cruise Missiles”
The Ukrainian defense ministry’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) said in a release on Monday that an “explosion” took out a number of missiles being transported by rail in the “temporarily occupied” northern Crimea settlement of Dzhankoy.
Ukraine had not confirmed any additional details on the purported incident, including potential casualties or how the missiles were destroyed, at the time of publication.
https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-celebrates-destruction-russian-cruise-missiles-1789087
“Ukraine says Russia Kalibr missile cargo hit in transit to Crimea”
Ukraine says shipment of Russian Kalibr cruise missiles was destroyed in transit to the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/3/21/ukraine-says-russia-kalibr-missile-cargo-hit-in-transit-to-crimea#:~:text=Ukraine‘s%20military%20agency%20said%20late,of%20powerful%20missiles%20was%20destroyed.
Brazen? Lol the word smithing is amazing.
Phosphorus attacks on cities is okay, attacking a train with missiles that will be launched at them “brazen”
Have ww been seeing the results of hundreds of thousands of conscripts mounting the winter offensive by Russia. Stunning. I will admit offensive is much harder than defense and much more costly, but I wonder what a mechanized thunder run type offensive will do to Russian positions. Logistics seems to be an issue for Russia. A concerted attack on rail and key infrastructure towards the rear of their lines could have serious effects on an already strained and limited supply network.
As always time will tell. A long and protracted Donbas style stalemate probably favors Russia, but if LOC are cut I can see another gesture of goodwill by Russians and then they will raze everything they surrendered
“but if LOC are cut I can see another gesture of goodwill by Russians”
Cutting the supply lines should be high on every Operational planners checklist. I don’t see how a plan could get approved without addressing that. I guess it boils down to how much resources are provided to do it.
Russian lines of communication are long in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson - it is a long way to run back home.
I agree. I wish the U.S. would authorize any NATO country to provide a limited number of ATACMS missiles, which could be used to attack the bridge.
Imagine-52 dropping a full load on Wagner position each targeted...
Neither side has Air Superiority (or Air Dominance), so B-52s are out.
However, stealth aircraft (B-2s, F-22s, or F-35s) dropping JDAMs and LGBs would put a quick end to the war. Every bridge between Ukraine and Russia would be dropped in a couple of days. Russian resupply would come screeching to a halt.
Hopefully, UKR MiGs can have some success attacking RU resupply infrastructure with JDAMs.
...what appeared to be a brazen attack...
If the attack was conducted by UKR Special Forces from 100 miles behind the FEBA, then that would be brazen.
Regardless of how the attack was conducted, this was a huge success for UKR intel.
Have ww been seeing the results of hundreds of thousands of conscripts
—
Most of them right now are attacking in the Adiviika area - which is grossly under reported, if any where - there are ongoing tank and armored vehicles battles right now.
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