Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 6, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
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Extras:
-—> Winged JDAM Smart Bombs Are Now Operational In Ukraine <——
The U.S. Air Force’s top officer in Europe says JDAM-ERs are now in Ukrainian hands, putting whole new Russian target sets at risk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/winged-jdam-smart-bombs-are-now-operational-in-ukraine
Excerpts:
The Ukrainian Air Force can now employ Joint Direct Attack Munition-Extended Range precision-guided bombs, or JDAM-ERs, against Russian forces, says the U.S. Air Force’s top officer in Europe. Ukraine’s stockpile of these bombs, which can hit targets up to 45 miles away thanks to their pop-out wing kits, is currently relatively small. However, they could already present real problems for Russia’s military
The exact configuration of the JDAM-ERs that Ukraine has received so far is unclear. Gen. Hecker also referred to them using the designation GBU-62. However, the only previously known variant of the GBU-62 appears to be the GBU-62(V)1/B, also known as the Quickstrike-ER, which combines the JDAM-ER kit with the 2,000-pound class Mk 64 Quickstrike naval mine.
There is the possibility that the ‘warheads’ could be Quickstrike mines converted back into standard bombs.
It’s also not clear what platforms Ukrainian forces are using to deliver these weapons. Gen. Hecker did bring up the JDAM-ER immediately after highlighting the integration of U.S.-made AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM) onto Ukrainian Air Force MiG-29 Fulcrum and Su-27 Flanker fighters.
Given the existing work that would have had to have been done to allow those Soviet-era jets to fire AGM-88s it is possible, if not probable that they are the ones now dropping JDAM-ERs.
MiG-29s and Su-27s also simply represent the bulk of Ukraine’s tactical aviation fleets. A limited number of Su-24 Fencers could also be hosts and even Su-25 Frogfoots, to a lesser degree.
Hecker also stressed that the total number of JDAM-ERs that Ukraine currently has is limited. “They have enough to do a couple of strikes,” he said.
Ukrainian forces now have the means to put entire new sets of targets - including bridges, large structures, dispersed air defense emplacements, and hardened fortifications - at risk with JDAM-ERs and may be doing just that already.
==
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Bakhmut On The Brink <——
As Russian forces close in on Bakhmut, there is increasing evidence that a Russian victory here would likely be a pyrrhic one.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-bakhmut-on-the-brink
Excerpts:
[Bakhmut: see video transcripts below.]
According to the ISW:
“Russian forces currently do not have the manpower and equipment necessary to sustain offensive operations at scale for a renewed offensive toward Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, let alone for a years-long campaign to capture all of Donetsk Oblast. Meaningful Russian offensives around Vuhledar or elsewhere in western Donetsk Oblast are also highly doubtful.”
“Russia will have to mobilize considerably more personnel and fundamentally transform its military industry to be able to support such operations. The Russian military‘s likely continued failure to achieve a decisive victory in Donetsk Oblast will likely draw increasing ire from Russia’s ultranationalist pro-war community.”
According to the ISW again, “the Russian military will likely struggle to maintain any subsequent offensive operations for some months” and “Russian forces likely lack the capability to further reinforce the Bakhmut area significantly without pulling forces from another area of the front due to the lack of untapped reserves.”
So far, there has been no evidence that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from Iran, as had long been expected. Now, we may have some indication of why that hasn’t happened, namely that Moscow is concerned that turning to Tehran to replenish its ballistic missile stocks could, in turn, prompt the United States to finally approve the transfer of Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles to Ukraine.
Russian air defenses are also apparently being strengthened at certain strategic locations within the country. Last week, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck a Rosneft oil depot in the town of Tuapse in the Krasnodar region on the Black Sea coast. Now, it seems the harbor there is being defended by a Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound) combined gun/missile point-defense system, to reduce the chances of any similar attacks in the future.
==
-—> Ukraine’s Defense Chief Pleas For Western Jets, Just Not A-10s <——
Ukraine’s latest plea for aircraft like the F-16 follows reports that it has sent pilots to the U.S. to have their skills assessed.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraines-defense-chief-pleas-for-western-jets-just-not-a-10s
Excerpts:
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov has reiterated a plea for the country’s international partners to provide it with more modern Western fighter jets, such as the U.S.-made F-16 Viper.
••He has also rejected calls from inside the Ukrainian government to push American authorities to send A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft.••
“This plane [the A-10] can’t see far and is very slow. There are a lot of them in the USA, but they don’t fight. They are old, they have no spare parts, and it is impossible to maintain them,” Reznikov continued in his interview with Liga. “I discussed these planes [with U.S. officials] back in March of last year.”
Reznikov first publicly discussed the A-10 issue, which has said he directly asked U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about, in an interview with The Washington Post last year.
He said he had dropped the matter quickly after Austin expressed concerns about the vulnerability of the Warthogs to Russian air defenses and told him about the general state of the examples currently in storage at the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona.
[The current training of UA pilots is more about ‘allowing the USAF to better help Ukrainian pilots become more effective pilots and better advise them on how to develop their own capabilities’, then training them to fly F-16s.]
The officials stressed that this exchange, which will reportedly include getting the Ukrainian pilots into “a [flight] simulator that can mimic flying various types of aircraft,” is not a formal flight training program.
[Training and transfer of airframes would take about 18 months altogether, so no advantage in early training.]
[Assessment: Ukraine will get planes when they get Abrams tanks - not for years, if ever.]
==
-—> AC-130J Gunship Unleashes Hell On South Korean Island <——
The AC-130J’s deployment to South Korea, part of exercise Teak Knife, is the first time a Ghostrider model of the gunship has operated there.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ac-130-ghostrider-gunship-unleashes-hell-on-south-korean-island
Excerpts:
AC-130J Ghostrider gunship gunnery in South Korea | Exercise Teak Knife 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DDcIyfSwnA
Using GBU-39B/B Laser Small Diameter Bombs (LSDB); AGM-176 Griffin precision-guided missiles; AGM-114 Hellfire missile; 30mm autocannon and 105mm howitzer
[Too bad Ukraine cannot have these or even older models - would make short work of Orc troops.]
USAF expected to eventually acquire a fleet of 37 Ghostriders in total. The last AC-130J delivery is scheduled for fiscal year 2024.
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Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 376.
Today the biggest news is coming from the east.
Here, Russian forces have deployed their most elite Wagner units to cut off Ukrainians from two sides.
However, Ukrainians took extraordinary measures that made flank attacks too costly, and given that Ukrainians started leaving their positions inside the city, Russians tried to quickly fill the void and capitalize on the momentum, only to find themselves entangled in the high losses urban fights.
Last time I told you that Ukrainians managed to stop Russian advances after reinforcing their flanks significantly.
I also told you that Ukrainians have finally started withdrawing from the town and that they have already left the eastern bank of the river and the southern part of the town.
Right now, the most intense fights are taking place on the outskirts of the city.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainians had substituted their tired forces with fresh ones from Chasiv Yar and Sloviansk for conducting limited counteroffensive operations, and so far, it looks like they are successful.
If previously, Russians reported huge difficulties associated with further advancement, then today, some Russian sources started to report about the unsustainability of the same intensity of attacks and that Russians left some positions.
It is highly unlikely that Ukrainians are trying to recapture vast swaths of land, given the current weather conditions.
It looks like Ukrainians just improved their fire control over the fields and made certain Russian positions simply untenable.
With increased fire, Russian forces pulled back to more reliable positions.
And this is where Russians started having the biggest problems - by stepping back, the concentration of their forces increased, which means that Russians became significantly more vulnerable to artillery and airstrikes.
In fact, many Russian sources confirmed today that Ukrainians concentrated their artillery fire on the flanks and also continuously engaged at least 6 assault helicopters to bomb Russian strong points.
If we take into account the fact that Wagner forces engaged their most elite formations to complete what they thought would be the final step to encircling Bakhmut, then we can see that Wagner forces are likely incurring high losses of the most capable troops.
That is why the Head of the Wagner Group, Progozhin, said today that Ukrainians are setting the conditions to block Wagner forces.
He said that in order to avoid it, Wagners need more ammunition and, most of all, secure flanks.
Prigozhin’s panic is justifiable because starting from the second half of March, the weather is expected to improve very rapidly, and given that the Wagners have overstretched their forces by widening the front line, there is plenty of weak spots in their flanks.
That is why he said that if the Russian Defense Ministry fails to ensure that they together tackle this problem, then Wagner forces are “screwed”.
But it looks like defeating Russian flank attacks is only one part of the Ukrainian plan.
As you remember, the second part of the plan is to impose more beneficial for Ukrainians rules of the game, which is urban fighting.
Widening the corridor for withdrawal, limited withdrawals themselves, and continuous urban fighting are not mutually exclusive goals.
Ukrainians are fighting inside the town while gradually stepping back; as they step back, they shorten the front line and a shorter front line requires fewer troops to protect it, so they conduct yet another limited withdrawal through the protected corridor.
Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council recently said that by leveraging their fortified positions inside Bakhmut, for every loss, Ukrainians are inflicting 7 losses to Russians.
That is why, as many of you duly noted, the Battle for Bakhmut is less about defending the city and more about bleeding Russians out.
Overall, Ukrainians are succeeding in imposing their rules of the game: they have reinforced the flanks and leveraged the bad weather to prevent the encirclement of the city; they have incentivized Russians to commit more resources to the urban fights by slowly withdrawing and creating the void that Russians try to fill, which leads to more urban fights, a higher concentration of Russian forces that suffer from artillery and airstrikes and faster depletion of the most capable Russian assault units.
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
••Bakhmut Region:
Ukraine has created new units: the 67th Brigade in Sloviansk; the 66th and 83rd Brigades in Siversk. There is a fourth group near Kostiantynivka.
Elite forces are in Chasiv Yar. PMC is afraid these new Brigades will cut its supplies and encircle them.
RGF Command does not want to share information with PMC and indicates a larger conflict between the two groups.
UA Generals told Zelenski they will hold Bakhmut - no longer a question of withdrawal. Elite units were not moved to the region casually.
[Sounds like elite PMC troops are about to be encircled by fresh UA troops in the immediate vicinity of Bakhmut, while new brigades are going to attack PMC’s exposed flanks from the north and south.]
The point of holding seems to be to win time before Western heavy weapons arrive in April and May.
PMC says if the Bakhmut operation fails, that will be the end for the Russian Federation because spring will unlock UA resources and they will go on a massive counter attack, totally collapsing the Russian front line. PMC has not moved in several days.
==
UA soldier executed by Orcs will become a symbol of the spirit of Ukraine fighters. Revenge is immanent because when Russia loses the war, it will collapse into its various small states, having drained its blood in small wars.
==
PMC in conflict with the Governor of St Petersburg, Putins friend and Parliamentary representative. Another crack in the Russian elite.
==
If Russia gets LR missiles from Iran, the US may supply ATACMS - if that happens, Russian will lose every military base in Crimea.
==
Leopard 1 tanks are more than a match for the 800 T-62 tanks Russia is deploying.
We need another term to describe the “elite” Wagners. None deserve a remotely positive adjective.
The link below is an article on JDAM-ER.
JDAM-ER in flight:
Although there are JDAM kits for 500 pound bombs, 1000 pound bombs, and 2000 pound bombs, the JDAM-ER kit only attaches to 2000 pound bombs.
“PMC says if the Bakhmut operation fails, that will be the end for the Russian Federation because spring will unlock UA resources and they will go on a massive counter attack, totally collapsing the Russian front line.”
Thanks for posting PIF.
Hope we are all still online to discuss as these events unfold. It is history in the making.