Another dividend from the relatively small amount of dollars being spent on Ukraine. Thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American lives will be saved if there is no war over Taiwan.
“CIA Chief Says China Has Doubts About Its Ability to Invade Taiwan”
“Russia’s struggles in Ukraine may be causing Beijing to have more trepidation“
“Russia’s struggles to seize and keep territory in Ukraine over the past year has likely fueled doubts by Chinese leader Xi Jinping that China’s military could successfully invade Taiwan later this decade, Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns said.
“I think our judgment at least is that (Chinese) President Xi and his military leadership have doubts today about whether they could accomplish that invasion,” Mr. Burns said Sunday on CBS. “As they’ve looked at Putin’s experience in Ukraine, that’s probably reinforced some of those doubts.”
Mr. Burns said that the U.S. continued to take the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seriously, adding that the risks of a conflict would likely grow further into the decade and beyond. U.S. intelligence and defense officials believe Mr. Xi wants to be ready to do so by 2027, if not sooner, but Mr. Burns said that goal isn’t set in stone.
“President Xi has instructed the PLA, the Chinese military leadership, to be ready by 2027 to invade Taiwan, but that doesn’t mean that he’s decided to invade in 2027 or any other year as well,” he said.”
Peak China
“The Chinese Century Is Already Over”
“China’s decline will be gradual. It will remain the world’s second- or third-largest economy for decades to come. But the huge gap between its waning demographic and economic strength and its expanding political ambitions may make it highly vulnerable to strategic misjudgments. Memories of past glory or fear of lost status could lead it down the same dangerous path that Russia has taken in Ukraine.”