Posted on 02/23/2023 4:06:44 PM PST by george76
Orderbook ‘sword of Damocles’ will soon hit container market..
Here it comes. An unprecedented flood of new container ships is about to enter service. The pace of deliveries will pick up in earnest next month, surge much higher in the second quarter, go higher still in the second half, even higher throughout 2024, and stay strong in 2025.
“The colossal orderbook is like a sword of Damocles hanging over the market, with a raft of new ship deliveries in the next months inevitably triggering a return of overcapacity,”
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Maritime Strategies International (MSI) estimates that deliveries will total 717,900 twenty-foot equivalent units in Q2 2023, up 62% sequentially from the current quarter, with deliveries rising to 764,800 TEUs in Q3 2023.
Mainline vessel deliveries per carrier The overall orderbook stood at 7.69 million TEUs as of Feb. 1, just under 30% of the on-the-water fleet capacity, according to Alphaliner.
Of the total, 2.48 million TEUs (32%) was set for delivery this year, 2.95 million TEUs (38%) next year, and 2.26 million TEUs (30%) thereafter.
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The stats show 89 new mainline vessels for delivery in the remainder of 2023, followed by 130 next year and 96 in 2025, for a total of 315 over the next three years. (Including newbuildings for non-mainline trades — i.e., smaller ships, intra-Asia ships, feeder vessels
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Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC), the world’s largest ocean carrier, is taking delivery of by far the most mainline capacity through 2025. It has 92 such vessels in the pipeline, including 33 in the remainder of this year.
CMA CGM has the second-most mainline vessel orders, at 38, most for delivery next year. Cosco (including OOCL) has the third-highest tally at 32. OOCL held a naming ceremony for its newest ship, the 24,188-TEU OOCL Spain, at China’s NACKS shipyard on Feb. 16.
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Mainline vessel deliveries by size Alphaliner also looked at the size categories of these newbuildings, dividing them into three categories: “Megamaxes,” with capacity of 23,000-24,000 TEUs, vessels that will be deployed in the Asia-Europe trade; “Neopanamaxes,” ships with capacity of 13,000-15,000 TEUs that can transit the Panama Canal; and other mainline vessels, with capacity of 7,000 TEUs-plus. Deliveries of Neopanamaxes and other mainline vessels will impact the U.S. ocean freight market.
Neopanamaxes are by far the largest category, representing 60% of the total mainline newbuildings to be delivered through 2025. Megamaxes account for 23% and other mainline newbuildings 17%.
MSC is heavily focused on more flexible Neopanamaxes. They represent 62% of its mainline vessel deliveries through 2025,
A reduction in transportation costs perhaps.
To put this capacity in context, Wal-Mart and Home Depot use between 500,000 and 750,000 containers a year.
As long as they get filled and not sit in port for two months, they’ll be fine.
Meanwhile, the current orderbook continues to grow. New orders favor dual-fuel tonnage that can burn both traditional marine bunker fuel as well as liquefied natural gas or methanol. Alphaliner data shows that 29% of capacity on order is dual-fuel.
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One way to offset this is for carriers to scrap older vessels. Virtually no container ships were scrapped in 2021-22 because freight rates were so high. Carriers “will look to offload as many older, more polluting ships from the market as quickly as they can,” predicted Drewry. “Our base forecast includes provision for a near-record level of demolitions in 2023.”
Bringing in more CommunistChina crap
and sending billions to CommunistChina to steal technology, challenge us worldwide and if need be to fight us.
Thanks treasonous US Chamber of Commerce and corrupt deep state bought off US politicians.
-fJRoberts-
I would be willing to bet that not a single one of those ships was built in the United States.
Maritime Strategies International (MSI) estimates that deliveries will total 717,900 twenty-foot equivalent units in Q2 2023, up 62% sequentially from the current quarter, with deliveries rising to 764,800 TEUs in Q3 2023.
There are I think six haulers like the Ever Given (the one that got stuck in the Suez Canal a couple years ago), each with a capacity of over 20,000 TEUs. Oh wait, 11 of them, sez here. Gross tonnage of each of those (which also indicates carrying capacity) is over 217,000 tons. To put that in perspective, the Titanic dry weight was something a little north of 52,000 tons. Those big-assed Japanese battleships of WWII had something like 73,000 GT (carrying capacity for crew, ammo, fuel, etc, only about 10,000 tons), or about one-third of each of those Ever ships.
Quick, Joe! Take credit for it, and then blame the supply chain jams on Trump again.
:^)
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