“Kyiv and Moscow Are Fighting Two Different Wars”
“Over the course of the war in Ukraine, the strategies of Russia and Ukraine have increasingly diverged. At first, Russia sought to catch Ukraine by surprise using a modern army engaged in some fast-moving maneuvers that would yield a rapid and decisive victory. But over time, its army has been seriously degraded, and it has increasingly been relying on artillery barrages and mass infantry assaults to achieve battlefield breakthroughs while stepping up its attacks on Ukrainian cities. In the areas its forces are occupying, it is seeking to impose “Russification” and has dealt harshly with those suspected of spying and sabotage, or simple dissent.
Ukraine has been more innovative in its tactics and more disciplined in their execution. Aided by a growing supply of Western weapons and an agile command, it has managed to recover some of the areas occupied by Russian forces. But it has also been fighting on its own territory and unable to reach far into Russia. So while Ukraine has limited itself to targeting Russia’s military, Russia is targeting Ukraine as a whole: its armed forces, its infrastructure, and its people.
These contrasting approaches—the “classic warfare” pursued by Ukraine and the “total warfare” adopted by Russia—have deep roots in the wars of the twentieth century. As the war in Ukraine reaches its one-year mark, it has begun to offer significant insights into how these two forms of warfare can cope in contemporary conflicts—and how they are likely to shape the contest between Kyiv and Moscow in the coming months.”
Sounds like someone is having a bad day.
“Bombshell audio recording indicates Prigozhin is unable to solve any issues with ammunition for Wagner. This morning, Prigozhin’s mouthpiece channel posted a 7-minute recording of him saying that he is forced to “apologise and obey” to get ammunition.”
“Resorting to near-yelling, Prigozhin declares he is aware the Russian MoD has enough ammunition produced but doesn’t understand where the limits are coming from. It appears that no recent attempts to raise ammo have worked and Wagner is cut off from supply completely.”
“Prigozhin blames the people “upstairs” for sending their children on holidays in Dubai, meanwhile Russian soldiers are “dying in trenches for their motherland”.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1627623132528779264
The Russian Winter offensive looks like a flop.
Institute for the Study of War, RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 19, 2023:
“The major phase of Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast is underway, and Russia likely lacks sufficient uncommitted reserves to dramatically increase the scale or intensity of the offensive this winter.
Russian conventional ground forces are generally deploying and fighting in normal doctrinal formations and units rather than in battalion tactical groups or other ad hoc structures. The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations.
Russian forces almost certainly still have some reconstituted mechanized units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to the Luhansk Oblast frontline is unlikely to change the course of the ongoing offensive dramatically.
The Russian offensive will very likely continue for some time and may temporarily gain momentum as the final reserves are committed—if they are—but will very likely culminate well short of its objectives and likely short of achieving operationally significant gains.”