Attack On Europe: Documenting Russian Equipment Losses During The 2022 Russian Invasion Of Ukraine

ORYX ^ | Since February 24, 2022 and daily | ORYX

[SpeedyInTexas]

This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.

[FtrPilot]

Kreminna/Kreminnaya should be in easy range for artillery or HIMARS.

It depends on how far behind the FEBA the russians deploy the Krasukha-2.

When launched in standoff mode, the HARM has a range of 80nm.

[SpeedyInTexas]

“The US Embassy in Moldova called on its citizens to avoid places where mass protests are expected tomorrow”

[SpeedyInTexas]

[SpeedyInTexas]

“Moldovan authorities are preparing new measures to keep order in the country ahead of a pro-Russian anti-government rally due in Chisinau on Sunday.

Pro-Russian parties, led by the fugitive oligarchs Ilan Shor and Vlad Plahotniuc, plan protests in the centre of Chisinau against the pro-Western government and low living standards, as Moldova grapples with several overlapping crises, including a war in its vicinity in Ukraine.

Authorities believe Russian destabilisation plans include the mass protests planned by the pro-Russian parties, allegedly paid for by a fugitive oligarch.”

https://balkaninsight.com/2023/02/17/moldova-braces-ahead-of-pro-russian-protest-in-capital/

[blitz128]

That is one hell of a war strategy but in the face of facts does not hold up well
If the strategy is to have your enemy turn your tanks into scrap well then I guess it is.
Personally I believe Russia held back its T-90s because they didn’t want their export market to see how vulnerable they are.

If I remember correctly they don’t have huge numbers of them anyway and have lost some 30 a models 6 or so s models which are export models and 10 m models

They don’t have enough tanks, equipment or manpower to take Ukraine let alone China
Putin has stripped his outer regions of troops ie the 155 th and if China wishes I am sure they can waltz in and I imagine that will be the case when the Russian federation resolved like the Soviet union did

The Russian economy is in free fall revenue crashing expenditures skyrocketing and at this pace they will be out of reserves in months.
VAT tax revenues which is a good indicator of civilian market activity plunged 45% in January. Oil revenue plunged33% but that does not tell the whole story because taxes and other revenue from oil industry actually makes up almost 60% of federal revenue. Add to that the damage being done and will be done to pipelines refineries due to inability to move and process crude will be severe to petro industry and Russia does not have the technological ability to fix this
Additionally the Russian budget is slashing spending on healthcare education and infrastructure while heavily increasing spending on military and internal security
Not a good position to be in

[SpeedyInTexas]

Nice post. Good facts.

[Paul R.]

Something else, too:

Russia could try selling off some gold, but, much of a dump will depress prices unless there is severe economic trouble globally. Estimates vary, but seem to center around $500-$600 million in sales per month as a maximum practical figure.

[Paul R.]

That drop in VAT revenues, for Jan. 2023 compared to Jan. 2022, is really remarkable.

I’d sure like to see a graph for the last few years, but have not seen such.

[BeauBo]

It is true that Russia is mow hemorrhaging red ink at an historic rate, but there are still some policy options left to them, that they can, and likely will do, to delay running out of reserves.

They can raise taxes, cut non-Military spending, sell off State assets (like mineral rights to China), nationalize industries (like oil), and just print more rubles like they were Zimbabwe. All of their options will have some negative marginal effect in the medium to long term, but will kick the can down the road in the near term. They have already done quite a bit of that already, as well as cashing out reserves.

There are a lot of moving parts, that can be unpredictable (the price of oil is the biggest variable), so forecasting the date that they go bust is hard. It could be this year, it could be 2025 - but they will not be able to mask the economic effects this year, anything like how they could last year. The pressures will be increasingly seen and felt by the population.

As long as the war goes on, the G-7 is likely to keep rolling out new packages of sanctions on Russia every month or so, making things progressively worse. I will admit that the price caps on oil and refined products have worked a lot better than I expected, and they have smart folks planning the best ways to hurt the Russian economy more.

[BeauBo]

“Russia could try selling off some gold”

Russia is a major gold producer, and the Government had over $100 Billion worth stockpiled before the invasion last year. At January’s rate of deficits, Russia could burn through both their financial and gold reserves by Christmas. They will likely move some of the levers they have available to effect that equation (like raising taxes), but other factors (and other players) will likely work against them as well.

[blitz128]

Good post, my understanding is Russia has some 148 billion in gold reserves. If anything close to januarys revenue and expense continue through the yer they will exhaust their rainy days fund and have to dip more into gold reserves and there they run into a double edged sword. How to sell the gold, will they have sell at discount, and if they sell too much does it discount the price even more. All those lead to a value for their gold at less than projected value

[blitz128]

Good points though I will add many of those measures were done in 2022 to bring rubble value back up. I would argue that the middle to long term prospects are far worse than marginal and near term don’t look good. Revenue has tanked, expenses are soaring with not an end in sight as long as war goes on and when it ends it will not go back to pre feb2022 anytime soon

The figure that strikes me the most is the almost 50% reduction in VAT collections. That is a direct measure of economic activity of the general population of Russia. Another figure not discussed much is the 11-14% inflation This along with big cuts to healthcare, education, and infrastructure can not make the average Russian too happy.

I understand Russians are very nationalistic and have shown great tolerance for this kind of pain in the past, but this is not the past and not so sure Russians are as willing these days. Will Putin be removed anytime soon because of public unrest, doubtful which is why internal security budget has soared along with military spending.

Your “moving parts….” However is spot on

[blitz128]

This guy has been covering the numbers pretty good
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zar_H_6SSUE
Look up joe blogs if I got it right this one covers what you were wanting and he uses Russian reported numbers so take that for what it might mean

[blitz128]

I will also add something not discussed much is the long term costs of rebuilding their military and what I would anticipate as a large loss in revenue from military sales export market after weapons systems perform. Weapons exports were also not only one their larger revenue streams but also big part of civilian job market

[BeauBo]

“I would argue that the middle to long term prospects are far worse than marginal and near term don’t look good.”

I totally agree. When I said marginal (as in marginally worse), I just meant that the policy options that they have to patch over near term performance all come at some cost to future economic performance - some marginally more or less (bad to worse). None actually improve their real economic performance. Cumulatively, Russia is having an historic bonfire of their economic prospects.

It could crack at any time, but so far, Russian officials have been quite competent at mitigating the near term effects of Putin’s disastrous war (dragging out the collapse). I expect them to continue to deftly defer the impacts felt around the kitchen table, but even the most genius policy will only mitigate, what would otherwise happen sooner and harder. The effects will increasingly be seen and felt by the population this year. It is a pretty epic economic disaster, but slow moving, and covered domestically with extensive information operations to lull the population.

“I would anticipate a large loss in revenue from military sales export market after weapons systems performance. Weapons exports were also not only one their larger revenue streams but also big part of civilian job market”

Weapons are about the only manufactured products, of which Russia is a significant exporter - second largest in the world, after the USA. Russian arms exports have been falling over the last few years due to competition, and a serious public whipping in the Ukraine would likely kick the bottom out of new sales (existing contracts are typically multi-year).

India (Russia’s largest weapons buyer) has already cancelled some orders since the invasion (even just this month). We seem to be seeing a gradual but significant loss of Russia’s biggest weapons market in India. India has long striven to maintain Russia as a counter-weight to China, but that may be Strategically shifting, as Russia seems on track to fall into China’s lap.

[blitz128]

Would be interesting to see if they lean towards South Korea. Not sure their political relationship with SK, but they are getting big into the arms market

I think Russia is toast as far as arms market goes, cheap does not mean much if their claim to fame is turrets in orbit, also not sure what their production capabilities are anyways
Saw a story where Russia sent some “T-90s” to India with older turrets, they weren’t happy

Also not sure China will send tanks seeing them blown up on the field of battle won’t look good either on the other hand maybe getting some combat testing to make them better is what they want

Either way they will be driven by folks who were last week driving a bus in St Petersburg

Outcome will be the same