Things will have to worse for Russia on the battlefield, and at the kitchen table level of the economy, for Russian society to really sour on the war, and the Putin regime.
That seems to be what is on track to happen. They are on track for for some serious Military losses when the Ukrainians launch their Spring/Summer counter-attack, with all the new Western gear.
Economically, the Russian Government had a big surge in revenue from the oil and gas price surges last year, to help paper over the effects of sanctions, so people felt less of a contraction than occurred. This year however, the situation is sharply reversed, with oil and gas prices back down to normal, and Europe having successfully replaced Russian for gas and oil supplies. This January’s rate of deficits would wipe out the Russian Government’s once huge (in percentage terms) financial and gold reserves completely by Christmas, if it continues. They will of course drag that out by taxing more and spending less outside of the Military, but the people will see and feel the economic costs significantly more this year than last.
This January’s rate of deficits would wipe out the Russian Government’s once huge (in percentage terms) financial and gold reserves completely by Christmas, if it continues.
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Hummm. Maybe China won’t have to invade to get Siberia - they can just buy it.