Maybe RuZZia’s spring offensive has already peaked?
“Russia’s newly declared offensive is “very pathetic,” according to a top US State Department official, who questioned whether the Russian people would continue to support the war in Ukraine.
“You see the war grinding in the east, in Bakhmut,” said US Under Secretary for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland.
“Russia has declared that it is launching a new offensive. Well, if this is it, it is very pathetic, I would say.”
She said Ukraine is planning its own counteroffensive “for later on.”
Nuland said that “more than 200,000 Russians” have been killed or wounded in the war so far, and that Russia has “in some categories lost more than half of their military equipment in this war.”
Nuland also said that Russian President Vladimir Putin “is arrogant enough to believe that he can defeat Ukraine.””
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 16, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Clandestine U.K. Program Developed 3D-Printed ‘Suicide’ Drone For Ukraine <——
The delta-wing drone was just one result of a rapid U.K. development program intended to prove systems for potential use by Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/clandestine-u-k-program-developed-3d-printed-suicide-drone-for-ukraine
Excerpt:
Ben Hodges, a retired Army lieutenant general who commanded U.S. Army Europe, told The War Zone on Thursday [about] taking pressure off Donbas and liberating Crimea. “Crimea is the key,” he said. “it is the decisive terrain.”
Ukraine should “focus on Crimea now as the main effort while using ‘economy of force’ in the east to slow/stop Russian ground attacks.”
With its Black Sea Fleet and several other Russian military installations on Crimea, “Ukraine knows they’ll never be safe or secure so long as Russia occupies” the peninsula.
“Any ‘peace settlement’ which results in Russia holding on to Crimea only means that Russia will wait two or three years until we, the West, will lose interest and in the meanwhile they’ll rebuild their military, address their mistakes, and restart their war against Ukraine. That’s been the pattern since 2008.”
In addition, “Kyiv also knows that they’ll never be able to rebuild their economy so long as Russia occupies Crimea. No access to the Azov Sea means that Mariupol and Berdans’k can never function again as seaports, even after they’re liberated.
The Black Sea Fleet would continue to disrupt/interdict commerce in and out of Odesa. And Russian claims to territorial waters, if not challenged, would deprive Ukraine access to potential gas deposits under the Black Sea. So Ukraine has to liberate Crimea. It is the key. Do that first, this year. Donbas will come later. It’s important but not decisive.”
The peninsula, he added, “is about the size of Massachusetts. There’s no place to hide. All Russian facility locations are well known and obvious - and vulnerable.”
“Precision strikes on Sevastopol will force the Black Sea Fleet to reposition to Novorossisk which is far less capable as a base, and further away from Ukrainian cities. The airbase Saki, on the west coast of Crimea, should become completely unusable. And the logistics hub at Dzankoy in the north of Crimea should become a huge bonfire.”
The Ukrainian “Angry Birds” drone unit attacks Russian troops. Simple off the shelf parts - anyone can make it. Suicide drones that use a commercial Radiomaster RC M-II TA16S (Mode 2) controller and goggles to fly into the target.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 358.
Today a lot of news is coming from the south.
Here, the Ukrainians launched a series of precision strikes that successfully exploited the movement of Russian forces away from the close proximity to the front.
The Ukrainians took out several Russian air defense systems and then hit three Russian bases in this unprotected area, and also a huge column with dozens of pieces of equipment and soldiers.
Last time we talked about this region, I told you that the Ukrainians had concentrated their fire on the bases that are closer to the front line.
In this first phase of heavy fire, the Ukrainians destroyed Russian equipment and concentrations of manpower in the vicinity of Kahovka, Nova Kahovka, Oleshky, Radensk, and Skadovsk.
I also told you that as a result of this fire, the Russians started moving and relocating their forces closer to Crimea and Melitopol and that this would be the next logical target for the Ukrainians. And this is exactly what happened today.
The first target of the Ukrainian precision strike became Kalanchak.
Here the Ukrainians have reportedly struck a number of Russian air defense systems - either S-300 or S-400.
The successful destruction of Russian air defense systems gave more flexibility in the sky, which is when the Ukrainians launched the second wave of rocket attacks.
The second target became a Russian base in Skadovsk. Here the Russians have the main headquarters for launching Iranian drones in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that these facilities are used both for training as well as participating in the massive missile and drone strikes on Ukraine. Today’s strike indicates that these facilities have been damaged.
The third target became a Russian base in Chaplynka. Chaplynka has a famous airfield that the Russians used to conduct rapid airstrikes on Ukrainian attack units during the Battle for Kherson.
Over the last several months, this airfield was used for conducting airstrikes on the Ukrainian positions along the river, in particular, hitting Zolota Balka and Dudchany.
So far, there are no details as to what exactly was targeted on this airfield, but judging by the previous reports and satellite footage, the Russians kept there a few helicopters.
The next strike targeted a Russian base in Armiansk, which is already Crimea. Armiansk is the town that basically connects Kherson and Crimea, so it is an important logistical hub where the Russians had a pretty big base, especially with ammunition.
At first, the occupation authorities reported that the explosions were caused by air defense, but when photos emerged of a huge cloud of smoke, Russian sources corrected themselves and said that Russian soldiers were undergoing training in that region. Ukrainian sources reported that it was a successful hit on an ammunition depot.
The last strike happened in the Zaporizhzhia region. Here the Ukrainians caught a huge Russian column that was moving from Vasylivka toward Melitopol.
Some sources speculate that the final destination of this column was Vuhledar because the Russians incurred extensive losses in that region over the last several weeks and were in dire need of reinforcement.
Unfortunately for the Russians, their old practices of using columns continue costing them manpower and equipment, as this column never reached its destination.
Overall, the Ukrainian Air Force had a very productive day and, according to the yet unconfirmed reports, destroyed drone facilities in Skadovsk, air defense systems in Kalanchak, helicopters in Chaplynka, an ammunition depot in Armiansk, and a column near Vasylivka, which resulted in losses of armor as well as manpower.
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
Bakhmut: Southern pincer unable to move because of all he problems in the Wagner PMC; the northern pincer moved a little bit. No change in center. Bakhmut will hold as long as Chasiv Yar is controlled by UA.
Wagner PMC complains today that they have no artillery shells in Bakhmut. Are sourcing ammoa and weapons form other private armies like the Chechens, but supplies “nothing like what they got from the Red Army”. And their situation continues to deteriorate.
UK talking about sending ~100 Eurofighter Typhoons with the Challenger 2 tanks. Spain, Italy, Germany and France also have these planes.
Zaporizhzhia Region: Many miles long convoy coming from Rostov-on-Don to Mariupol, then to Berdans’k. Road is terrible - gravel and mud. Trucks bumper to bumper. From Berdans’k on to Melitopol.
Russian dedicated de-mining vehicles and tanks with mine plows destroyed by artillery. Huge loss.
International Institute of War Researchers said that Russia has lost 50% of its modern tanks like: T-72b3, T-72b3m, T-90M. Russia had around 1,800 of them - now are 900 lost.
Putin’s energy weapon backfired catastrophically on Russia.
From OilPrice.com today (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/European-Natural-Gas-Prices-Sink-To-18-Month-Low.html ):
“Europe’s benchmark natural gas price fell on Friday to the lowest level in 18 months as concerns about a gas crisis this winter continue to recede amid mild weather and above-average inventories across the continent.
On Friday morning in Amsterdam, the front-month futures at the TTF hub were down by 6% and fell below the threshold of 50 euros ($53) per megawatt-hour (MWh) for the first time since August 2021.
Prices are now more than 85% down from the record high of 300 euros ($318) per MWh from August 2022, and down by around 35% so far this year alone.
“EU gas trades below €50/MWh for the first time in 17 months, and equally important, the winter 23/24 and 24/25 continues to soften as well, both trading below €60,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Friday”
https://meduza.io/en/news/2023/02/13/mediazona-and-bbc-news-russian-publish-further-figures-on-russia-s-losses-in-ukraine
Mediazona and BBC News Russian, together with a group of volunteers, have confirmed the deaths of 14,093 Russian servicemen killed in the Ukraine war before February 12. They arrived at this total using only public records and other open sources.
###
Compare that to more than 150,000 dead on the Ukrainian side.
"BAKHMUT AXIS /0010 18 FEB/ RU units appear to have finally taken Krasna Hora, and have advanced into the adjacent town of Paraskoviivka. A RU airstrike hit Berikhivka; this failed to dislodge UKR defenders, who continue hold the M-03 HWY and the Bakhmut urban area."
Once again, Poland deserves to be glorified. They are heroes in this titanic struggle, and have earned my enduring respect.
@visegrad24 2h
BREAKING:
“Polish President Andrzej Duda says Poland is considering handing over its MiG-29s to Ukraine & joining a potential F-16 fighter jet coalition to provide Ukraine with the jets.
He said the benefit would be that the Ukrainian pilots are “ready to fly immediately on MiGs””
@visegrad24 2h
Poland will double the production rate of its AHS Krab self-propelled howitzers from 50 units to 100 per year.
PM Morawiecki revealed that Poland will recapitalize the
@PGZ_pl company Huta Stalowa Wola which produces Krabs with USD 500 mln.
Major investments to be made.
@visegrad24 3h
BREAKING: Poland and Pakistan launch cooperation on getting Pakistani weapons to Ukraine.
Pakistani media reports that DMI Associates, an agent for Pakistan Ordnance Factories based in Islamabad, has signed an MoU with the Government Strategic Reserves Agency of Poland.
Weather (God) seems to be on the side of Ukraine and the West.
The mild Winter defused Putin’s energy weapon, and the early Mud Season will hamper Russia’s window of offensive opportunity, before the new Ukrainian Counter-Attack Corps is ready to liberate territory.
@visegrad24 4h
The infamous mud is back in Eastern Ukraine.
@WarMonitor3 Feb 16
“Friendly fire (fratricide) continues to be a large problem for Russian units on the frontlines in Ukraine.
Often I see reports of separate Russian mobilised units firing at each other with small arms or mortars sometimes for days only to figure out after.”
Institute for the Study of War’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, 17 Feb 23:
Key Takeaways
-The Kremlin will likely subsume elements of Belarus’ defense industrial base (DIB) as part of Moscow’s larger effort to reequip the Russian military to support a protracted war against Ukraine.
-Lukashenko confirmed that Belarus has implemented more Union State integration programs - marking progress in the Kremlin’s decades-long pressure campaign to formalize the Russian-Belarusian Union State.
-The Kremlin’s gains in Belarus underscore that Putin’s imperialistic ambitions transcend Ukraine and that containing the Russian threat requires the West’s sustained attention.
-The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) confirmed the names of the four military district commanders, finalizing a complete turnover of the Russian military’s initial command since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.
-Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to be mounting an informational counteroffensive against the conventional Russian military establishment.
-Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
-Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, in the Donetsk City-Avdiivka area, and in western Donetsk Oblast.
-Russian and Ukrainian military activity near Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast indicates that Russian forces are likely deployed to positions close bank of the Dnipro River.
-The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that Russian forces have likely suffered up to 200,000 casualties since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a variety of laws on February 17 to integrate occupied territories into Russian legal, economic, and administrative structures.
France sent 5th generation Akeron MP ATGM's. This shit has a firing range of up to 5 km and is cooler than Javelin (4th generation ATGM, 2.5 km range).
You can read about 5th generation ATGM's here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-tank_guided_missile#Fifth_generation_ATGMs
@SmartUACat 17h
There’s no deficit in the energy system of Ukraine. No power cuts are planned today.
"The first group of 630 Ukrainian soldiers completed their training using the M2 Bradley IFV in Grafenwöhr, Germany."
Washington Times Reports: Another Ukrainian battalion began training on the M2 Bradley before the first group graduated, military officials said. American troops are also training Ukrainian artillery soldiers on the M109 Paladin howitzer. Next week, an infantry battalion will receive instructions on the M1126 Stryker, officials said.
