Posted on 02/14/2023 7:12:31 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Historically almost all Russian offensives and counteroffensives throughout history suffered large casualties in their initial stages, even those that turned out to be successful. American commanders would be sacked for such victories. However given the technical realities of modern warfare and if the Ukrainians are adequately supplied with the numbers and types of weapon systems they need, these ancient Russian tactics just might fail. Tragically tens of thousands more young men on both sides are about to die and be maimed for no good reason.
“US Salvages ‘Significant’ Amount of Alleged China Balloon Debris
“Undersea drones help US Navy crews track down balloon wreckage”
“Large sections of airship’s structure also found, Navy says”
8 days until Putin’s “Victory Concert” in Moscow…
“I’m RuZZian in spite of the entire world.”
Wow, that’s something to be proud of.
The Buildup To War In Ukraine - February 14 2022
February 14 2022 was a relative quiet day. The U.S. knew that the Ukraine would soon launch a large attack on the renegade Dontezk and Luhansk republics. To protect the Russian people living there the Russian Federation would have to invade Ukraine. The White Hose continued to warn of a upcoming 'Russian invasion' that the upcoming Ukrainian actions would provoke.
marcusmaximus posted a link on Feb 13 where the "Military" made promises to Putin to "correct the situation".
At the end of the meeting, "Putin categorically demanded the result by February 21".
Click the link for an interesting read.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4130703/posts#36
marcusmaximus...I have marked my calendar.
RuZZian tank losses 1100
RuZZian artillery losses 2000
Ukrainian tank losses 0
Ukrainian artillery losses 0
NATO US and EU tank losses 8999
NATO US and EU artillery losses 15000
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 13, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Russia’s Offensive Has Begun Says NATO Chief <——
As Russia gets closer to capturing Bakhmut, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg says its long-awaited offensive in the east is underway.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russias-offensive-has-begun-says-nato-chief
Excerpts:
... what Russia lacks in quality, they tried to compensate in quantity, meaning that the leadership, the logistics, the equipment, the training, don’t have the same level as the Ukrainian forces. But they have more forces. And the Russians are willing to send in those forces and take a higher number of casualties.
... the waiting time for large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. Orders placed today would only be delivered two and a half years later. So we need to ramp up production and invest in our production capacity.
Pakistan has increased its military aid to Ukraine, including sending some 10,000 rounds for Grad multiple launch rocket systems.
NYT says: Russia uses waves of convicts fighting for Wagner as human cannon fodder to attack Ukrainian forces.
Those troops “have become an integral component of Russia’s military strategy as it presses a new offensive in Ukraine’s east: relying on overwhelming manpower, much of it comprising inexperienced, poorly trained conscripts, regardless of the high rate of casualties,” the newspaper reported.
“There are two main uses of the conscripts in these assaults: as ‘storm troops’ who move in waves, followed by more experienced Russian fighters; and as intentional targets, to draw fire and thus identify Ukrainian positions to hit with artillery.”
... our losses were gigantic,” Sergei said. “The next group would follow after a pause of 15 or 20 minutes, then another, then another.”
Russian R-37 air-to-air missile found in a partially recoverable state.
Russian loitering munitions, like the Lancet drones, have been raining havoc on Ukrainian positions. In response, the Ukrainians claim they have developed screens that have successfully countered some of those attacks
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 355.
Today a lot of news is coming from the Luhansk region.
Here, the Russians encountered a lot of problems with developing their offensive operation, which resulted in delays in the engagement of the prepared troops.
This allowed the Ukrainian Intelligence to analyze the situation and finally understand where the Russians wanted to deliver their main blow.
The action was already taken, and the Ukrainians started building a decisive line of defense.
In the northern part of the Luhansk region, Russian sources reported that they are still struggling to establish full control over Dvorichne and Hrianykivka.
The Ukrainians here are reportedly leveraging their positions in the forest and are crossing the river to assault the Russians in Dvoriche, which does not allow them to clear the village, and they also continue holding their defense in Hrianykivka.
This poses a significant inconvenience for the Russians because, ideally for them, they should have established control over the entire forest and even Synkivka by yesterday.
The main Ukrainian stronghold in this region is obviously Kupiansk, and Kupiansk is almost the same size as Bakhmut, so storming it requires substantial resources.
But before they even start storming it, the Russians need to eliminate all small Ukrainian positions in front of this town, which they failed to do efficiently.
This gives the Ukrainians a lot of time to prepare for their next move.
In fact, because the Russians have already deployed their troops for their offensive but are forced to delay the main attack, the Ukrainians have figured out the direction of their main attack.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that based on the number of troops deployed in the Belgorod region, and given that with the intensification of the Russian offensive actions, the concentration of forces there increased, it is virtually guaranteed that the Russians will strike from the north.
Today, Russian sources reported that the Ukrainians likely figured something out because they are actively building and equipping a defense line between Kupiansk and Sieversky Donets River.
This is a very convenient place to defend against a massive attack because it gives the Ukrainians an opportunity to hold defense along the river and force the Russians down the funnel in between the rivers.
In this case, there is no need to stretch resources along a vast front line which allows being more flexible with reserves.
In the southern part of the Luhansk region, both parties advanced in their main directions.
The Russians continue to push from Ploschanka and Novovodiane on Makiivka, and according to some sources, the fights shifted closer to Makiivka and are now taking place near the lakes and ravine.
Simultaneously, the Ukrainians pushed the Russians in Ploschanka from the Zhuravka ravine, and now the fights are taking place only 700 meters away from the settlement.
The Ukrainians are also maintaining their bridgehead around Chervonopopivka, and even though they are not trying to penetrate Russian positions anymore, staying here causes significant problems for the Russians because it restricts their movement.
The Ukrainians here control not only the local heights but also most of the tree belts and forests.
When it comes to the Kreminna area, the Russians are assaulting Ukrainian positions in front of Yampolivka and Torske in an attempt to finally reach the Zherebetst river and then expand outwards.
This is a necessary condition for the next logical step, which in the case of the Russians, is launching a bigger offensive here.
So far, the Russians have not been very successful, and it looks like the weather is going to get worse before they can achieve any reasonable success here.
In any case, the Ukrainians are not wasting time and erecting new defenses in this region as well.
Many sources indicated that the Ukrainians are heavily fortifying Lyman and establishing additional positions in the forest around it.
As you can see, the fights here are very intense, in fact, most of the war footage right now is coming from the southern part of the Luhansk region, so the changes can happen rapidly, and contingencies must be in place.
So far, the Ukrainians are doing an incredibly good job of preventing the Russians from setting the conditions for the offensive: the Russians still have not reached the Oskil River in the north, and they still have not reached the Zherebets River in the south, which is buying the Ukrainians a lot of valuable time.
The Russians have about 5 weeks around Kupiansk and 4 weeks around Kreminna.
On top of that, today, Polish President Andrzej Duda stated that Ukrainian soldiers are already training to operate Leopard tanks.
Other sources specified that 105 Ukrainian soldiers had arrived at the training camp. The training should take between 6 and 8 weeks, which implies that by the end of April, they will be ready to use them in Ukraine.
And some Ukrainians are already getting ready for the long run because today, footage appeared showing Ukrainian tank crews who are trained to use Abrams tanks.
==
Ukraine forms 7 new Mechanized divisions (23rd, 31st, 32nd, 48th, 116th, 117th, 118th) & one new Artillery Brigade (48th)
==
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPpYQuLW8T0
Denys says:
British Intel: around Bakhmut, the Russians lost 6,400 troops last week.
What happened to the 155th & 40th Naval Infantry Brigades:
Pavilivka: Russians took the town losing 300 troops, they then retreated into friendly fire from the troops behind them, losing 500 more troops. 800 total.
Vuhledar: loss 700 troops, mostly in mine fields. After that they send de-mining equipment, accompanied by tanks which were also destroyed.
Belarus is getting ready to join in the war. But this will cause riots. If this happens, Putin will put his own people in charge of Belarus and they will attack.
Tanks cannot cross the Belarus-Ukrainian border for all the dense forests and swamps, they must use roads and bridges which are now blown or destroyed. If Russia cannot cross easy terrain like Vuhledar, they will have no success on the northern border.
Ramstein Conference today (2/14/23) will focus on aviation. Bradleys are in Germany. Ukraine troops are now training on Leopard 2s and Abrams. Iran delivered 18 heavy drones to Russians.
Major Russian assaults from Belarus, and East Kharkiv Oblast will likely start on Feb 24th, exactly as the first invasion did.
==
Links reposted from UMCRevMom threads:
1. Our list of Ukrainian Ground Forces has been updated to reflect the changes above.
https://militaryland.net/news/new-brigades-are-being-formed/
2. Russian tank is blown up by a landmine
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11744255/Russian-tank-blown-landmine-suffers-exact-fate.html?ito=push-notification&ci=VxffK9PSpP&cri=Jc6MFeneaW&si=qUE_cMbMuf0Y&xi=90d65f60-88f8-4565-8362-1a61ff1c99fe&ai=11744255
3. Dramatic video appears to show heavy losses among Russian armored formations
CNN
Feb 13, 2023 8:48 a.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-07fklxrJiI
4. Advancing Russians threw away their equipment and fled from battlefield en masse
Kanal13
Feb 13, 2023 1:50 p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QL_HAGVeJo
5. AFTER THE DESTROYED ARMOR - THE RUSSIANS ARE NOW LAUNCHING INFANTRY-ONLY, “MEAT WAVE” AT VUHLEDAR
Warthog Defense
Feb 13, 2023 9:50 a.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2eDtFwhGV5I
6. Ukraine War: Why has Russia’s spring offensive started early?
Sky News
Feb 13, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Thh3mV_wrkY
7. Leaked Calls: Russian Conscripts Can’t Flee Soon Enough!
Combat Veteran Reacts
Feb 13, 2023 7:00 P.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Epk9V8QR3Pk
8. Russians abandon wartime Russia in historic exodus
https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-02-13/russians-wartime-exodus-9127629.html
9. THE PAYBACK - AZERBAIJANI FIGHTERS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL LEGION CAPTURED RUSSIAN SOLDIERS || 2023
Warthog Defense
Feb 13, 2023
2-13-2023 5:13 p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8Ldy0mVifM
10. Ukraine’s Counter Attack is Small, but VERY Significant! 13 FEB 23 Ukraine Daily Update
Combat Veteran Reacts
2-13-2023 12:05 p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Epk9V8QR3Pk
11. Leaked Calls: Russian Conscripts Can’t Flee Soon Enough!
Combat Veteran Reacts
2-13-2023 7:45 p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Epk9V8QR3Pk&t=662s
12. “We are going to drive out invaders” - Ukrainian army preparing to attack with large force
Kanal13
2-13-2023 7:oo p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNIniaKoLfo
13. Over 50 Explosions In Sumy, 560 Russian Soldiers Killed, Kurdish Mercenaries Fighting For Putin?
CRUX
Feb 13, 2023 4:00 a.m.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=91zau3n8v_I
14. Russian oil exports continue to fall - Bloomberg
News Censor.NET World
14.02.23
https://censor.net/en/n3399645
15. Russia Loses 5,000 Soldiers as Elite Brigade Suffers High Deaths: Ukraine
By Anna Skinner
2/13/23 at 12:11 PM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-loses-5000-soldiers-elite-brigade-suffers-high-deaths-ukraine-1780878
16. Why Are So Many Russian Soldiers Dying?
By Brendan Cole
2/13/23 10:50 AM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-soldiers-dying-1780816?spot_im_redirect_source=pitc
17. Ukraine is Approaching the Crimea! The Russian Army is Insufficient to Prevent Attacks in the Crimea
Tiger Claw
Feb 13, 2023 8:00 p.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t07ufiyJaq8
18. Russian Politician Says It’s Time to ‘Admit’ Real Reason for Ukraine War
Andrew Stanton
2/13/23 2:27 PM EST
https://www.newsweek.com/russian-politician-says-time-admit-real-reason-ukraine-war-1780903
19. MOBILIZED RUSSIANS BEG AUTHORITIES TO SAVE THEM FROM THE FATE OF “CANNON FODDER” || 2023
Warthog Defense
2-13-2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WERWjoRhwhU
20. 130 pieces of Russian armoured vehicles destroyed in just one week
Kanal13
2-14-2023 1:00 a.m. EST
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOSEg4ImXkk
Today’s propaganda dump. Just because this stuff is associated with internet links does not necessarily make it the truth.
Propaganda comes from both sides. It would be nice to know what the actual facts are. The winner will write the history. If the Uke’s win, the articles in this thread will become the gospel. If the Ruskies win, a much different story will be told.
I just wish we’d stay out of a European non-NATO war.
‘The White Hose...’
...in your mouth.
I don’t think anyone has a clue as to what equipment is lost by either side. Someone would have to go around and count the stuff. Otherwise it is estimation and speculation.
One of many cluttering up FR. I call this one “The Maksym and Boryslav Show.” Daily clown threads with the OP posting repeatedly to himself and his sidekick.
This is the RuZZian (Wagner) plane I recently posted about.
“A Russian Su-24M strike aircraft (RF-93799) operated by the Wagner PMC was severely damaged by a Ukrainian MANPADS strike over Bakhmut, #Donetsk Oblast.
It managed to get back to base but is very unlikely to fly again any time soon.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1625582475924627462
“The U.S. military is considering sending Ukraine thousands of seized weapons and more than a million rounds of ammunition once bound for Iran-backed fighters in Yemen, an unprecedented step that would help Kyiv battle Russian forces”
https://twitter.com/AOstovar/status/1625550192681578497
Wagner Plane.
“Some additional footage of the engine fire after the aircraft had landed. It appears that it was extinguished on the ground.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1625586161660878875
“Kyiv could conduct offensives right now, but they would be unlikely to achieve serious successes while sustaining losses. It makes more sense to wait for new equipment, trained units, better ground conditions, etc. for their big push, which will be more likely to achieve success.”
“Ukraine is clearly holding back reserves for its offensives later this year, which may give the perception that it is losing, but committing those reserves to the front now to defend would make them less effective for future offensives. It is a calculated risk. 2/”
“It is natural to go on defense after successful offensives. Slow grinding offensives are not in Ukraine’s interests, so they need to give themselves the best chance for achieving a deep penetration of Russian lines that can be exploited. That requires greater forces/planning. 3/”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1625583014225801217
Vuhledar, the gift that keeps on giving.
“Said to be destroyed Russian TOS-1, by 72nd brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Vuhledar front. “
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1625564986616545280
“The forces of the 8th OGSHB destroyed two units of enemy armored vehicles with the help of anti-tank weapons and mines”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1625588161505026070
“Greece transfered 20 BMP-1s to Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1625573803270045697
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