Posted on 02/09/2023 8:06:05 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
A simple, short video, but my fav of the day.
“The ‘Seneca’ aerial reconnaissance unit of the Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade uses a Switchblade 300 kamikaze drone on enemy units in their trenches. I suspect the contract of these guys ended.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1623668497367564288
“What Russia Got Wrong”
“Can Moscow Learn From Its Failures in Ukraine?”
“Three months before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, CIA Director William Burns and U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan met in Moscow with Nikolai Patrushev, an ultra-hawkish adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Burns and Sullivan informed Patrushev that they knew of Russia’s invasion plans and that the West would respond with severe consequences if Russia proceeded. According to Burns, Patrushev said nothing about the invasion. Instead, he looked them in the eye, conveying what Burns took as a message: the Russian military could achieve what it wanted.
Once home, the two Americans informed U.S. President Joe Biden that Moscow had made up its mind. Not long after, Washington began publicly warning the world that Russia would attack Ukraine. Three months ahead of the invasion, the Kremlin knew that the United States had discovered its war plans and that the world would be primed for an assault—yet Putin decided to deny his intentions to Russia’s own troops and most of its senior leaders. They did not learn of the invasion until several days or even hours before it began. The secrecy was a mistake. By orchestrating the attack with just a small group of advisers, Putin undercut many of the advantages his country should have had.
These strengths were substantial. Before the invasion, Russia’s military was larger and better equipped than Ukraine’s. Its forces had more combat experience than did Kyiv’s, even though both had fought in Ukraine’s eastern territories. Most Western analysts therefore assumed that if Russian forces used their advantages wisely, the Ukrainians could not withstand the attack for long.
Why Russia did not prevail—why it was instead stopped in its tracks, routed outside major cities, and put on the defensive—has become one of the most important questions in both U.S. foreign policy and international security more broadly. The answer has many components. The excessive internal secrecy gave troops and commanders little time to prepare, leading to heavy losses. Russia created an invasion plan that was riddled with faulty assumptions, arbitrary political guidance, and planning errors that departed from key Russian military principles. The initial invasion called for multiple lines of attack with no follow-on force, tethering the military to operational objectives that were overly ambitious for the size of its forces. And the Kremlin erroneously believed that its war plans were sound, that Ukraine would not put up much resistance, and that the West’s support would not be strong enough to make a difference. As a result, Russia was shocked when its troops ran into a determined Ukraine backed by Western intelligence and weapons. Russian forces were then repeatedly beaten.”
“Russia Throws Soldiers into Ukraine Firing Line to Gain Inches“
“Ukrainian artillery fire mangled the platoon of Russian soldiers advancing on this besieged city. Guided by a live video feed from an aerial drone, the guns cut down the first group of 20, a reconnaissance officer recalled. Then a further group of 20 were knocked out, followed by 10 more.
Later that same day in January, another 20 Russian soldiers trudged forward along the same path and managed to dig in at a new position in a wood a little closer to Bakhmut.
“I just don’t know when they’ll run out,” said the 33-year-old officer, Maj. Yuriy Harkaviy, who goes by the nom de guerre Skala, or the Rock. “Everywhere is already strewn with corpses.””
I’d say between 50% and 66%.
“Russia may have lost up to half of its operational tank fleet in Ukraine, monitoring group says”
The Terminator is Terminated.
“What appears to be the first visually confirmed loss of a Russian BMPT Terminator in #Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/Arslon_Xudosi/status/1623651172732096513
Vuhledar, the gift that keeps on giving.
“At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. 13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned.”
https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623649601717772288
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1623679573069111296
Cut out the middle man. Prigozhin on the way out.
“Interesting: Yevgeny Prigozhin says this morning that his Wagner Group is no longer recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine. No information at all given as to why.”
“Interesting news. There have been reports that the Russian MoD is now recruiting prisoners. If the MoD takes over that source of manpower, Wagner’s size and capabilities will be reduced. One way for the MoD to reassert itself and minimize Wagner’s role.”
“Girkin believes that with Wagner terminating recruitment, its days are basically numbered. But given the state of the Russian armed forces, there will be no one to replace the death battalions who were the only ones to achieve any success in recent months.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1623570467045924864
“A Russian 2S3 Akatsiya 152mm self-propelled howitzer was destroyed by a Ukrainian M982 Excalibur strike in #Donetsk Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623702986722537472
“One of the first photos of Ukrainian soldiers using recently delivered American M119A3 105mm lightweight howitzers - 72 in total will be transferred from the US.”
“Though Ukraine received the most modern variant - it was preliminarily impaired, as previously happened with the M777A2: digital fire control assemblies, inertial navigation units and ballistic computers were stripped off the howitzers.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1623426861068845056
“Here lies an orc, dying. And next to them are the same. I wonder if they liked being in Ukraine, given that they don’t even have proper weapons and bulletproof vests? “Cheer up, boys...””
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1623407809365700611
POWs
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1623626411750694916
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1623577750471684097
“Meanwhile, central Kyiv sees the monument to Soviet General Vatutin being dismantled.”
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1623640733000269826
What total “documented” horse shit. Keep on shoveling.
RuZZians are dying by the thousands every month.
Celebrate. Sing and Dance.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 8, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: No New Ground Assault On Kyiv Expected <——
Ukraine’s parliament says a Russian offensive will likely come from the east or south while one expert says it is likely to come very soon.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-no-new-ground-assault-on-kyiv-expected
Excerpts:
“At the moment, no signs of the formation of offensive, shock groups have been detected either in the territory of the Republic of Belarus, or in all other territories, except for the eastern - Luhansk, Donetsk region, Bakhmut, Avdiyivka, Kupyansk, and partly in the southern Zaporizhzhia-Mykolaiv region,” Fedir Venislavskyi, People’s Deputy, member of the Verkhovna Rada’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence of Ukraine, told reporters Wednesday at the Ukrainian Media Center.
Venislavskyi’s comments also synch up with an analysis provided to The War Zone Monday by a Ukrainian advisor who asked to be referred to by his nom de guerre Vlad Dut to discuss security matters.
[Dut: Ron Dut is a feared villain in Doctor Who, 4th Doctor episode, 16th season, The Power of Kroll.]
Dut’s analysis suggests that Ukraine is bracing for an attack on or around Feb. 15, depending on the weather, and that the western Donbas and/or Zaporizhzhia Oblast are the most likely locations.
The Russians, he added, are amassing troops and supplies in Donbas beyond the range of the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provided to Ukraine, which can reach targets about 43 miles away.
“The enemy will try to occupy the administrative borders of Luhansk and Donetsk regions and move towards Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, that is, towards the western administrative boundaries of the Donbas,” Dut wrote in his analysis, which is not an official government document, but a personal assessment he shared with us. “To these areas of the front, the aggressor is now moving combat-ready units in quantitative and qualitative correlation, concentrating them for decisive battles outside the HIMARS firing range.”
Dut said that seeing the potential for a future Russian offensive spurred the U.S. and allies to promise tanks and other weapons, like the GLSDBs to Ukraine. But Dut cautions that those weapons, particularly the tanks, may take too long to arrive.
Ukraine’s allies “urgently” promised “321 modern tanks that will play a significant role in defense of Ukraine and later in the counter-offensive,” he wrote. That includes 31 M1A2 Abrams main battle tanks promised by the U.S.
“Only awareness of the likely consequences of inaction helped Kyiv to obtain heavy weapons from the donor territories,” he wrote. “But the delivery of most weapons is scheduled from April to August this year, which is too late, given the realities.”
==
Germany delivered two more Gepard (German for cheetah) 1A2 self-propelled anti-aircraft gun systems to Ukraine along with an additional 6,000 rounds of ammunition in Berlin’s latest aid package.
That brings the total number of Gepards received by Ukraine to 32.
==
SpaceX has taken steps to limit Ukraine’s use of the company’s satellite-internet connections for military purposes, a top executive at the Elon Musk-founded company said Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said SpaceX had worked to restrict the country from using Starlink, as the company’s satellite-internet business is called, for military purposes.
“There are things that we can do and have done,” she told reporters after an appearance at a space-industry event. She declined to discuss details.
Crowdsourcing remains an important source of supplies for Ukraine, with a number of drones being donated that way as a result.
==
From Hungary:
7 drones
From Ukrainian Come Back Alive charity organization:
10 DJI Mavic 3 Enterprise quadcopters;
18 charging stations of different capacities;
10 tablets for working with maps and adjusting fire, as well as additional memory and protection for them;
4 laptops for data processing;
2 radio scanners;
2 antennas.
==
Attn Pootie Trolls!! You can now play with the Big Boys:
HIMARS mania has reached a new level, with the much-lauded system now turned into a toy.
You can purchase one, made by Brickmania Toys out of LEGO building bricks, for $185. For an extra $70, you can get the Ukrainian upgrade pack, which includes 10 custom printed tiles and one “exclusive operator minifig,” with the funds going to benefit Ukraine’s UNITED24 charity organization.
https://www.brickmania.com/m142-himars-high-mobility-artillery-rocket-system/
—
-—> This Is How Long It Would Really Take Ukraine’s Pilots To Convert To F-16s <——
Just learning to fly an F-16 is a small aspect of what it would take for a Ukrainian fighter pilot to be combat ready in the type.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-how-long-it-would-really-take-ukraines-pilots-to-convert-to-f-16s
Excerpts:
But just how feasible is it to get pilots trained not just to fly, but also to fight in the F-16?
With a mountain of inaccurate claims and bold but hollow statements dominating this hot topic, we break down the harsh reality.
So, if the U.S. government does eventually sanction the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine, what would that entail?
“To learn the first stage of takeoff and landing and flying from point A to point B, it will take a few weeks, but to learn how to fight on it, to learn how to use missiles, we will take around six months,” Ignat said.
The F-16 is relatively easy to operate safely, so it’s not too high a barrier to cross for the Ukrainian Air Force. An F-16 pilot told The War Zone: “In a matter of months it’s possible for a non-familiar aviator to be reasonably safe in a jet like the F-16. The systems are easy to operate, the jet is easy to fly, and it’s very intuitive to learn. The Viper is an easy transition for an experienced fighter pilot from a pure flying perspective, no matter what type they are coming from.”
“You turn it on, you push the throttle up, you go and fly. The flight control system neutralizes any big mistakes, you really can’t over-stress the jet unless you’re really trying to. You can’t take it out of controlled flight easily - there’s a lot of instances where it takes care of you with a layer of safety to where even a non-proficient operator can fly safely - some including enhanced ground proximity warning systems (EGPWS) - so that’s the first bridge they have to cross.”
The full F-16 Basic Course, also known as the B-Course, is typically a nine-month process for pilots fresh out of pilot training.
“For a pilot with around 500 hours experience in a Western fighter, but that has never previously flown the F-16 - someone transitioning from the Hornet for example - without any breaks, working weekends, etc, they need 69 days to learn everything to safely employ the Viper in air-to-air and air-to-ground roles,” commented an experienced F-16 instructor.
“That’s assuming they speak good English because that’s the language we teach in. Those 69 days include six flights learning to fly the jet and land it. About 15 flights of air-to-air, but if they’ve done a lot of this before you might get that down to 10.
The between six and nine air-to-surface missions, which would include a basic ability to employ laser-guided bombs [LGBs] and GPS-guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions [JDAMs].
That would give them a basic, wingman-level understanding, and that’s assuming they are already familiar with the complex weapons such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM [Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile].”
If Ukrainian pilots were literally taught how to fly the jet, with a quick look at some basic air-to-ground applications - probably using unguided weapons initially - and a basic grounding in the Sidewinder for air-to-air, they could probably be deemed proficient in a couple of months.
But this would not give Ukraine what they are asking for. That would take longer and would be part of a greater fighter transition that would occur over many months if not years, not a handful of weeks.
—
-—> U.K. Commits To Training Ukrainian Fighter Pilots, Many Questions Remain <——
The U.K. has offered to train Ukrainian fighter pilots but its training pipeline is already under incredible stress.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/u-k-commits-to-training-ukrainian-fighter-pilots-many-questions-remain
Excerpts:
The statement from the U.K. government adds that this training, starting this spring, “will ensure pilots are able to fly sophisticated NATO-standard fighter jets in the future. This indicates that the training will be to help transition Ukrainian Air Force fighter pilots onto new aircraft types, although the exact model is not specified.
For now, no firm decision has been taken on providing combat jets to Ukraine. If it were to do so, the most likely candidate would be the 30 early-model Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 1 jets, which are already planned to be retired by 2025.
There is a big question over whether Ukraine would be able to support the costly Typhoon, while the Tranche 1 version may well be less attractive due to its extremely limited air-to-ground capability. On the other hand, the lack of offensive capacity might actually make the Tranche 1 jets more politically acceptable ...
... the British say they plan to offer Ukraine “longer-range capabilities,” leading to speculation that the Storm Shadow cruise missile could be headed to Ukraine. The weapons in question are not specified, but it’s said they “will disrupt Russia’s ability to continually target Ukraine’s civilian and critical national infrastructure and help relieve pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines.”
As far as fast-jet training is concerned, today’s announcement comes as the United Kingdom’s ability to train its own fighter pilots is increasingly questioned.
For some years now, there have been significant problems in the country’s aircrew training system, in terms of both aircraft availability and throughput, with the fast-jet pipeline being especially badly affected.
—
-—> China Now Has More ICBM Launchers Than The United States <——
The milestone was announced in a letter from the U.S. military to Congress and speaks to China’s accelerated nuclear arsenal expansion.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-now-has-more-icbm-launchers-than-the-united-states
Excerpts:
China has surpassed the United States in the number of land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launchers it possesses. The assessment comes amid growing concerns over China’s efforts to rapidly expand its nuclear arsenal. On top of that, relations between the U.S. and China are at a particularly low point after a surveillance balloon belonging to Beijing was discovered in American airspace last week.
The data about Chinese ICBM launchers came in a brief letter to the House and Senate Armed Services Committees authored by U.S. Air Force Gen. Anthony J. Cotton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM), dated Jan. 26, 2023. Notifications like Cotton’s are now required under legislation passed last year that necessitates STRATCOM alert Congress if China is to surpass the U.S. in ICBM silo, missile, or warhead inventory in an effort to better keep tabs on the nation’s strategic expansion.
However, Cotton also noted in the letter that the U.S. military still does surmount China in the number of actual ICBMs and nuclear warheads to equip said missiles that it possesses.
[Follows details about type, number, range of China’s ICBMs. Accompanying chart shows that the US had near parity with Russia when Biden came into office and has since suffered a steep decline in number, while Russia has steadily increased.]
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 350.
Today there is a lot of news from the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian, British, and American Intelligence all agree that the Russians planned to launch their great offensive operation by the end of this week.
By that time, the Russians expected to create chaos on the front line by collapsing the Ukrainian defense in Bakhmut or somewhere else.
However, the Russians got stuck in front of several key Ukrainian positions that threaten to undermine and completely ruin all Russian plans.
In an attempt to meet the deadline, the Russian command ordered to assault absolutely all Ukrainian positions in Donbas non-stop, but here is how it translated to the fronts.
When it comes to the Avdiivka region, last time I told you that the Russians surprised the Ukrainians by launching an attack across the frozen water, which allowed them to assault the weakest point in the Ukrainian defense line and establish control over the eastern part of the Vodyane settlement.
For the next three weeks, the Russians have been trying to expand to the north and west, but as usual, incremental advancements in the Avdiivka direction are extremely slow.
Russian sources reported that their capabilities in this region were being limited by intense Ukrainian artillery fire.
On top of that, if we look at the topographic map, we can see that there are two hills in front of this Vodyane settlement.
This is exactly where the Russians tried to move in as fast as possible as part of the Avdiivka encirclement operation.
However, due to the hills, extensive trenches, closeness to the main supply hub of the Avdiivka group, the fact that the Ukrainians allocated more troops to stabilize the front line, and no element of surprise, the Russians did not manage to breach the next line of defense and got stuck.
Today the Russians developed a new plan and launched intense assaults along the whole Avdiivka front - they attacked Ukrainian positions in Pervomaiske, Kamianka, and in front of Vodyane, Opytne, and even Adviivka itself.
Judging by the direction of the attacks, it is clear they did not plan to breach Ukrainian defense somewhere else - the main goal of the Russians was to disperse Ukrainian troops that they concentrated near Sieverne.
This is a very costly tactic because attacking Avdiivka in front is simply a suicide mission, but the Russians can afford it as they have been relocating a lot of mobilized soldiers to Donbas.
One of the things that the Ukrainians can and are doing to not allow the Russians to use all their resources is creating logistical problems by conducting constant HIMARS strikes.
By continuously destroying ammunition depots that are close to the front line, they are creating short-term deficits and forcing the assault units to ration and save ammunition until the next supplies arrive from deep reserves.
Today the Ukrainians conducted yet another strike and destroyed an ammunition depot in Donetsk at the former cinema building.
Since the last coverage of this region, the Ukrainians have consistently targeted the main logistical hubs and bases in the region: Illovaisk, Khartsyzk, Makiivka, and, of course, Donetsk.
When it comes to the Vuhledar area, the Ukrainians regained the initiative.
Last time I told you that the Ukrainians had successfully pushed the Russians out of the eastern hamlet and that the Russians also unsuccessfully assaulted the coalmines.
I also told you that the Ukrainians in Vuhledar assumed more of a passive position, being in pure defense, while most attacks were conducted from the coal mines area.
Right now, the situation has improved even more, and the Ukrainians in Vuhledar have become more active.
The Russians are not giving up, and they continue to throw their forces to attack the eastern hamlet.
These attacks must be launched across the field, which is why the Russians started to use the following tactic: they send a lot of small infantry groups to get as far along the tree belts as possible, and then they send several infantry fighting vehicles under cover of smoke to establish their positions even closer.
So far, it has been a one-way trip. The Ukrainians just overwhelm them with artillery fire and then, in one thrust, eliminate the rest.
Russian sources confirm that the number of Ukrainian counterattacks has increased.
Ukrainian sources report that Russian forces lost up to 30 armored vehicles during the counterattacks and associated strikes.
Some sources recently posted footage and imagery confirming Ukrainian strikes and counterattacks.
Overall, the Russian command likely ordered to continue to assault Vuhledar, despite the fact that it looks like they ran out of viable tactics.
As the Russians relocated tens of thousands of mobilized troops to the front, they can clearly afford high losses.
Their main goal is to breach the Ukrainian defense, at least somewhere.
It is necessary for the Russians to collapse a segment front line because it will force the Ukrainians to use up their reserves in an attempt to stabilize the front line.
Once the Ukrainians have no available reserves, the Russians want to launch their main offensive operation.
But so far, Vuhledar, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, and Siversk continue to hold, while the Russians are running out of time to launch an offensive before the rainy season.
***The window closes steadily, which forces the Russians to sacrifice thousands of troops killed and wounded per day*** just to set proper conditions for their long-awaited offensive operation.
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