Western Aid to Ukraine

Perun Defence Economics ^ | Feb 5, 2023 | Perun

[rmlew]

393,942 views Feb 5, 2023
Last week I talked about the enduring strengths of the Russian armed forces and their ability to launch offensives and apply pressure in Ukraine. Faced with that pressure, Ukraine's ability to carry on the fight will be driven not just by its own determination, but by the flow of weapons and assistance from its allies abroad.

Aid to Ukraine has evolved dramatically since February 2022, and there are few topics that have attracted more constant press coverage away from the battlefield itself. So today I try and set out how aid has evolved, who the major contributors are, and the impact aid has had - and may have in 2023.

Caveats & Corrections: In this episode I refer to the White House announcing periodic age packages for Ukraine - I meant to refer to the DoD. I also refer to percentages of Russian artillery in storage being towed/122mm - this is a reference to 'reserve' Russian artillery systems per MB2021 as stated on the slide.

I also wish to emphasise again that I deliberately included extreme examples of Western escalation options to illustrate a point, not as advocacy.

Sources \u0026 Further Reading:

German military support for Ukraine
https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992

CSIS - US Security Assistance to Ukraine
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12040

Ukraine supplemental FY2023
https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Ukraine%20Supplemental%20Summary%20FY23.pdf

Kiel Institute for World Economy figures on Ukraine support:
https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

Oryx: Answering the call - heavy weapons to Ukraine
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-supplied.html

EU Training Mission Targets
https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/eu-ramps-up-military-support-doubles-training-mission-targets-for-ukraine/

Ukraine FOREX reserves
https://www.reuters.com/markets/ukraines-foreign-reserves-hit-2795-bln-topping-pre-invasion-level-2022-12-06/

US plans combined arms training
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3248075/us-plans-combined-arms-training-for-ukrainian-soldiers/

Poland repairing Ukraine equipment
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/poland-launched-large-scale-repairs-of-the-equipment-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine/#:~:text=Poland%20launched%20a%20large%2Dscale,AHS%20Krab%20self%2Dpropelled%20guns.

Estonia handing over all its 155mm howitzers
https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/estonia-to-give-ukraine-all-its-155-mm-howitzers-in-largest-aid-package-so-far

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/879537.html\nReznikov: Ukraine needs 300 tanks, 600-700 IFVs, 500 howitzers for specific operation

TASS on Escalation Risk
https://tass.com/politics/1570233

CSIS on Ukraine Aid:
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Olaf Scholz steers clear of commitment to supply of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/18/olaf-scholz-steers-clear-of-pledging-leopard-2-tanks-to-ukraine

U.S. funds not misused in Ukraine, U.S. Treasury says amid corruption crackdown
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-treasury-says-no-indication-that-us-funds-were-misused-ukraine-2023-01-31/

UK Tanks to Ukraine
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-64274755

M113s to Iraq
https://www.army.mil/article/106646/excess_armored_personnel_carriers_benefit_u_s_foreign_partners

Paper system counts for elements like Russian and US reserve artillery are per Military Balance 2021

Timestamps:
00:00:00 — Opening Words
00:01:43 — What Am I Talking About?
00:03:21 — From Korea to Afghanistan
00:04:47 — AID PRE-2022
00:05:00 — The Ukrainian Military of 2014
00:08:27 — Made in Ukraine (with some help)
00:09:41 — THE AID ESCALATION
00:10:05 — Phase 1: Stop the Tanks
00:11:08 — Phase 2: Light \u0026 Heavy
00:12:10 — Phase 3: Keeping the Lights On
00:12:45 — Phase 4: Enabling Manoeuvre
00:14:31 — Phase 5: Reach
00:15:18 — HOW MUCH AID HAS GONE?
00:20:25 — What is a Thing Worth?
00:21:54 — Personal View - Focus on Type \u0026 Qty.
00:22:55 — NATIONAL AID PROGRAMS
00:23:07 — The VANGUARDS
00:23:12 — Leading the Charge
00:23:35 — Leading on Heavy Weapons
00:25:02 — Accepting Risk
00:26:42 — Pushing the Boundaries
00:27:58 — THE CAUTIOUS GIANT: US AID
00:32:11 — The Source of Deterrence
00:33:13 — LET'S TALK ABOUT GERMANY
00:36:04 — German Military Aid
00:37:08 — Messaging \u0026 Authorisation
00:39:58 — IMPACT \u0026 SCALE
00:40:06 — Finances
00:41:06 — Humanitarian \u0026 Refugee Costs
00:42:02 — Military Aid by the Numbers
00:46:36 — OTHER AID TYPES
00:50:40 — CAN IT BE ENOUGH?
00:57:07 — The Numbers are the Numbers
01:00:28 — The Trend So Far
01:01:29 — WHAT IS NEEDED?
01:01:44 — The Ukrainian Requests
01:02:49 — Solution 1: New maneuver
01:04:18 — Solution 2: Fight Like Ukrainians
01:08:35 — THE WEST IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT
01:10:25 — CONCLUSIONS
01:11:40 — CHANNEL UPDATE

[rmlew]

There is considerable misunderstanding of aid to Ukraine. Much of this has to do with the accounting methods and spin by donor nations. I am not saying that there is no corruption in Ukraine. Far from it.But there is far less being given than commonly believed, because of accounting tricks.

[Tom Tetroxide]

World Is Walking Into WW3 With “Eyes Wide Open” - UN Chief Tells General Assembly
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/world-walking-ww3-eyes-wide-open-un-chief-tells-general-assembly

[Tom Tetroxide]

Victor Davis Hanson: Ukrainian Paradoxes
Are the borders of country 5,000 miles away more sacrosanct and more worth taking existential risks than our own airspace and southern border?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/victor-davis-hanson-ukrainian-paradoxes

[Widget Jr]

Thanks for posting. Too many are trying to justify their own positions, instead of analyzing what is actually happening. Perun is one of the few trying to analyze and explain the big picture of Ukraine to a wider audience.

[rmlew]

Through out the Cold War, the US and USSR gave aid to countries fighting the other or their proxies. Soviet pilots flew out of China to attack us in the Korean War. We aren't stumbling into anything. We are applying Cold War rules. KGB Russia knows them well.

[rmlew]

This isn’t about our borders. It’s about containing Russia, China, and Iran. It’s about living up to our agreements and keeping NATO intact. Aiding Ukraine in no way precludes protecting out borders. Instead of using this claim to betray Ukraine, use it to force Democrats to secure our borders. Rational thought is more important that grievance politics.

[Tom Tetroxide]

Is the Ukraine a member of NATO?

[Tom Tetroxide]

In order to justify NATO and all that money being spent requires us to have an enemy, whether real or imagined.

[rmlew]

Ukraine isn't part of NATO or Russia. It could not join NATO.
In order to justify NATO and all that money being spent requires us to have an enemy, whether real or imagined.
We have real enemies. Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are all working together.

[Tom Tetroxide]

The Ukraine has been a part of Russia since the Kievan Rus back in the late 9th century.

You are aware that the Ukraine did apply for NATO membership in 2008, right?

Do you have any suggestions on how to destroy Russia, China, and Norklandia so there won’t be ANY opposition to what the socialist globalists in the US and Europe do?

[Tom Tetroxide]

Are you looking forward to a nuclear WW3? Are you ready for it? Is your family? How about your friends?

How do you plan to survive a post-apocalyptic America?

[rmlew]

The Ukraine has been a part of Russia since the Kievan Rus back in the late 9th century.
Russia is not the entirety of the Rus. Muscovy is Muscovy, and Moscow didn't exist 1000 years ago. The Mongols destroyed the Rus and there were many successor states. Your argument is like saying that France belongs to Italy.

You are aware that the Ukraine did apply for NATO membership in 2008, right?
And didn't get in. Today, they can't.

Do you have any suggestions on how to destroy Russia, China, and Norklandia so there won’t be ANY opposition to what the socialist globalists in the US and Europe do?
So you support communist tyrannies because you hate Western Globalists. That is the source of your treason.
I believe in containment. They will fall by themselves.

[rmlew]

No one wants World War 3. Ukrainian victory is the best way to prevent it.

[Tom Tetroxide]

Who told you that?

[rmlew]

Who told you that?
Some of us are smart enough to figure things out by ourselves. Putin wishes to restore the Soviet empire, which includes NATO members. Even in this invasion, the mas showed the Russians marching onto Moldova, which risks a war between Russia and Romania, a member of NATO. Thus pushing Russia back to the 2021 borders restores peace to Europe and prevents a war between the US and NATO. It also sends a strong message to China not to invade Taiwan. Alternatively, a Russian victory and collapse of Western resolve invites Chinese invasion and a war between the US and China.

[Tom Tetroxide]

The West’s obsession to destroy the East will end up in a state of MAD.