“‘We killed three Russians’: the secretive Ukrainian special forces taking the fight across the border”
“If the worst happens, Taras, 23, Vladyslav, 21, and their commander, Olexiy, 39, are well aware that the Ukrainian government will deny any knowledge of them. In western capitals, there is a collective shudder at the very thought of them.
They are members of the Bratstvo battalion, a volunteer group of Ukrainian special forces, taking the fight against Vladimir Putin beyond the frontlines of the war in Ukraine, past the occupied areas of their country – and deep into Russia.
Their work ranges from the kidnapping of senior Kremlin officials, to the destruction of key military infrastructure and the downing of enemy aircraft on Russian territory.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/04/ukraine-special-forces-russia-border
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 4, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv’s Modern Tank Corps Begins To Take Shape <——
Ukrainian troops are well into training with British troops on the Challenger 2, while some of their future Leopard 2s are being shipped.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyivs-modern-tank-corps-begins-to-take-shape
Excerpt:
The British Ministry of Defense released pictures of Ukrainian troops training with Challenger 2 “Driver Training Tanks,” a unique turretless variant with a weighted superstructure and room for instructors ... The Ukrainians are less than a week into training on the Challenger 2 after the first tank crews arrived on January 29.
... the first of four Canadian Leopard 2A4 tanks donated to Ukraine is on its way after photos showed it being loaded into a Royal Canadian Air Force C-17 in Halifax, Nova Scotia.
The Ukrainian indigenous [T-84U Oplot] tanks are reportedly in service with units fighting in Kharkiv Oblast on the frontline’s northern reaches. Ukrainian crews in the video note impressive “sports car” maneuverability as opposed to older Russian tanks in Ukrainian service. Crews also claimed a 200-300 meter advantage for the Oplot’s thermal sights over their Russian adversaries’ capabilities. That size of a gap can make all the difference in armored warfare when the first shot is often a deciding factor.
—
-—> F-22 Shoots Down Chinese Spy Balloon Off Carolinas With Missile (Updated) <——
After days spent floating over the U.S., the Chinese spy balloon was shot down and a collection operation is now underway off the Carolinas.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-22-shoots-down-chinese-spy-balloon-off-carolinas-with-missile
Excerpt:
C-135 Stratotanker refueling aircraft, as well as F-22 Raptors were observed loitering in the area, along with a U.S. Navy P-8a Poseidon patrol aircraft. A U.S. Coast Guard HC-130 search-and-rescue plane also flew off Wilmington.
The F-22s flew with the call signs “FRANK01” and “FRANK02”, a possible homage to World War One flying ace and U.S. Army Air Service Medal of Honor recipient First Lieutenant Frank Luke Jr, better known as the “Arizona Balloon Buster.”
Based on the video we have examined, although this is not definitive at this point, it appears an AIM-9 Sidewinder was used at close range. The F-22 primarily uses the AIM-9X now, but can also carry the AIM-9L/M as it had for years. The missiles can be cued by the F-22’s AN/APG-77 radar and AIM-9X Block II can use its datalink to be locked on and prosecute its target with the help of the F-22’s powerful radar after launch.
It isn’t clear if the missile had a warhead or not. There was time to ‘weaponeer’ the target well in advance using intelligence gathered over the past days, especially by other F-22s. If fusing would be an issue, or they hoped to decrease its descent, fitting the live missile with an inert warhead is a possibility.
If it did have a warhead, the AIM-9, with its laser fuse, which rings the midpoint of the missile, would have been a far better choice than the AIM-120, which features a radar fuse. The balloon’s envelope would be largely transparent to radar energy. Regardless, this is the first F-22 kill.
It may be the highest altitude air-to-air kill ever, as well, but that is not confirmed at this time.
An F-22 Raptor from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base fired a single AIM-9X Sidewinder missile that downed the balloon from an altitude of 58,000 feet. The balloon was as high as 65,000 feet.
The U.S. took steps to stop and mitigate the balloon’s collection, neutralizing its intelligence value and preventing it from sending data back to China as it passed over sensitive sites.
There were three previously undisclosed intrusions by Chinese surveillance into U.S. airspace, but never of this duration. Two of these incursions came during the President Donald Trump administration, with the third early in the Biden administration. The Chinese explanation for this balloon’s flight lacked credibility.
This is not the only surveillance balloon operating in the western hemisphere, with another operating over south and Central America as part of a fleet at the People’s Liberation Army’s direction across five continents.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Day 346.
In the Luhansk region, Russian authorities shut down mobile internet and started relocating their equipment in preparation for a decisive action.
Recently it became clear that the Russians changed their plans rapidly and decided not to wait for sunny weather to start their offensive operation, and today I will tell you exactly when and where it will start.
At first, it was expected that the Russians would launch their offensive operation when the rainy spring season ends, which is late April.
This would be sensible because it leaves a large window for developing an offensive operation.
However, the Russians changed their plans after Western countries started discussing their plans to supply Ukraine with tanks, artillery, and armored vehicles.
The reason they decided to launch their offensive operation right now is simple - this way, they do not run the risk of missing the timing.
And missing the timing could happen easily - for example, the weather in the south improves much faster and allows the Ukrainians to start their counteroffensive.
By the time the weather improves in the north, the Russians may need to cancel their own offensive and relocate their troops to stabilize the front. That is why the Russians decided to start it now.
It is less efficient, and it will not allow to develop it rapidly because of the inevitable rainy season, but at least they will preserve the initiative.
Today a Ukrainian intelligence official stated that the Russian President ordered the Russian military to capture Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March.
This is consistent with other news, such as that Russian authorities ordered the only mobile cell service provider in the Luhansk region to suspend mobile internet coverage starting on 11 February.
The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that internet cell service has already been blocked for two days. Implementation of such measures is meant to conceal new Russian force deployments in the region, and a Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate representative already confirmed they had observed indicators that Russian troops are regrouping in preparation for a big offensive in Donbas.
All of this indicates that the Russians plan to start their offensive operation within one week, and their place of choice is the Luhansk region.
And if we look at the weather forecast, we can see that the weather should be cold and dry for around 1 month, setting good conditions for offensive actions.
The main goal of the Russians is to reach the Oskil River before the return of the muddy weather. Some Russian analysts are calling it a rectification operation because this is where the Russians were supposed to stop after being defeated in the Kharkiv region.
The fact that the Ukrainians did not stop and continued pushing in the Luhansk region once again proved to be a smart move because now the Russians needed to dedicate a whole offensive operation just to set conditions for the next move.
Ideally for the Russians, they need to take Bakhmut and Siversk and reach the Oskil River by spring, and after the rainy period, they need to launch another offensive operation to take Izium and then crush the biggest Ukrainian defense line from two sides because taking it from just one side may cost them more than they have.
However, in order to reach the Oskil River, the Russians need to take Siversk. Siversk allows the Ukrainians to supply their assault units in the forest, which doesn’t allow the Russians even to cross the Zherebets River.
That is why the Ukrainians are continuing to push here, despite the fact that advancing here proved to be very difficult - it takes a considerable amount of time and resources to cross each natural barrier, so by just maintaining control over this small section of the Zherebets River’s eastern bank, the Ukrainians put a stick in the wheel of the whole rectification operation.
That is why the Russians are trying to breach the Ukrainian defense on the hills near Siversk. However, a lot of Russian troops are fixed around Bakhmut. The Russians cannot stop attacking it because they will lose all their progress, and they cannot advance here rapidly because it is one of the most well-fortified towns in Ukraine.
That is why the Ukrainians are not leaving Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are fixing a substantial portion of forces and delaying the Russian offensive operation.
And this is a big problem for the Russians because they keep rewriting their plans. That is why the Russians decided to assault almost all settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region.
First of all, they wanted to breach the Ukrainian defense at least somewhere, and secondly, they wanted the Ukrainian command to panic and relocate troops from the east to Zaporizhzhia.
But the Ukrainians managed to hold their defense in the south without compromising their defense in the east, which is why Bakhmut still stands, which is why Siversk still stands, which is why the Russians cannot reach the Zherebets River and set conditions for the rectification operation.
For now, the Ukrainians have two tasks. Firstly, they should ruin the Russian offensive operation by preventing them from setting the conditions for this operation, such as taking Bakhmut.
And secondly, they should exhaust Russian forces as much as possible because the longer it takes them to capture Bakhmut, the more troops they throw into the battle to try to meet the deadline, and the higher losses they incur and burn their reserves that are necessary for the main offensive operation.
If the Ukrainians are successful, the Ukrainians will receive heavy western equipment before the Russians reach the Kramatorsk line.
Such a premature culmination of the Russian offensive could then generate favorable conditions for Ukrainian forces to exploit in their own late spring or summer counteroffensive after incorporating Western tank deliveries.
—
Denys reports that the fire in the bridge factory in Belogord which was making the steel parts to repair the Kersh bridge is the same as hitting the bridge itself again. Also, Ukraine is using the Ukrainian Delta Services System which just became operational.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta_(situational_awareness_system)
It allows Commanders to see both sides of the front in real time. It uses surveillances planes, satellites, & drones to form a live image of the front. Russians cannot hide, and they do not have this system. Commanders can now direct individual units in real time. This might just be a bigger weapon than all of the Western tanks combined
A Dutch businessman bought a lot of Leopard 1 tanks from the Dutch government for 10-15,000 Euros each and now will sell them back for 500,000 Euros each.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jcJWHijUVU
What's the media hiding?
@narrative_hole
🇺🇦💀 The medical service of the 77th Airmobile Brigade in Bakhmut reports a very difficult situation and asks for 9 medical vehicles and 500 body bags.
6:59 AM · Feb 5, 2023
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qtsUxdyWxk&t=15s
As Russia Encircles Bakhmut Zelensky No Surrender; US Mulls China Conflict, Rumours of Concessions to Moscow End War
The daily propaganda thread continues.
"THEY'LL BE WATCHING: Part of the latest Ukraine aid package includes RQ-20 Puma reconnaissance UAVs. Surveillance cameras, Electronic Warfare (EW) and communication relay capability and nearly silent flight make the Puma a formidable hunter of RU forces."
@front_ukrainian 9h
Nexter (French) has managed to increase Caesar (155mm howitzer) production to the point they can send 6 vehicles per month to Ukraine if desired.
Mick Ryan, AM @WarintheFuture Feb 3
“Putin raises the Nazi ghost as a way not just to discredit his enemies with a false charge, but to immunize himself from having a far more plausible charge flung at him.” Putin’s Big Lie - at @TheAtlantic
Institute for the Study of War 4 Feb
“ISW continues to assess that Russia is concentrating troops and military equipment to stage a decisive offensive on the western Luhansk Oblast and Bakhmut areas.”
Ministry of Defence (UK) @DefenceHQ Feb 4
United Kingdom government organization
Tank crews from the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been quick to master the controls of the mighty Challenger 2 this week.
@nexta_tv 3 Feb
“”Gazprom” has classified statistics on gas production and exports, following a record collapse in the history of the Russian gas industry.
“Gazprom” last reported on December 15: it showed that in the last two weeks of 2022 gas production fell by 24% and export fell by 60%.
Last year, Gazprom sold 101 billion cubic meters of gas to the non-CIS countries - half as much as a year earlier, company head Alexei Miller reported in January.
Thus, Gazprom lost its largest sales market, which took more than 50 years to build.”
Although it sold half as much in total in 2022 as it did in 2021, the first half of 2022 saw almost no decline. The annual average masks how deep the decline was in the second half, where it will likely remain long term. I think more than 80% of its former gas exports have been lost, over the last 6-8 months, and the Nordstream pipelines are rusting heaps of metal on the sea floor.
Putin did that.
@EuromaidanPress Feb 2
Mainstream Swiss politicians are now calling for the 96 mothballed Swiss Leopard 2 tanks to be sold for as little as one symbolic franc to Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, replacing the tanks that their governments plan to send to Ukraine - Bloomberg
@visegrad24 8h
"BREAKING: Washington has sent Tokyo an official request to station hypersonic LRHW missiles on the Japanese Islands in order to counter the regional missile gap in relation to China
LRHW is scheduled to become the first hypersonic missiles to enter service in the U.S. in 2023"
Putin’s energy weapon misfired in both the EU, and the Ukraine.
@visegrad24 11h
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, brought 35 million LED light bulbs with her to Ukraine.
People will be able to get them at post offices.
She writes:
“Every kW of energy saved is precious to counter Russia’s energy war”
@visegrad24 Feb 4
BREAKING:
The European Parliament has voted in favour of sending modern fighter jets and long-range missile systems to Ukraine.
Today (5 Feb) a new EU import ban on refined petroleum products (like diesel fuel) from Russia goes into effect, along with a price cap mechanism for countries outside of the EU.
The price cap mechanism on crude oil (imposed in December) has seemed to work so far, in reducing Russian revenues. It will be even harder to sell refined products to China or India than it was for crude oil, because they are exporters of refined products, rather than importers – it is cheaper for them to buy crude and refine it themselves. They might buy more crude from Russia and let their refined products smuggle their way back to Europe, but that would still be significantly less profitable for Russia. The net result is estimated to be about another $50 Million or more per day of lost revenue to Russia.
The 10th round of sanctions is being prepared for the anniversary of the invasion, on 24 February.
Brent crude dipped below $80 today.
