Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Feb 3, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
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Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Officially Getting Long-Range Rocket-Boosted Bomb <——
The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb will enable Ukraine to hit targets at twice the distance of any weapon currently provided.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-kyiv-officially-getting-long-range-rocket-boosted-bomb
Excerpts:
The bombs won’t likely reach Ukraine for several months, Marine Lt. Col. Garron Garn, a Pentagon spokesman, told The War Zone Friday evening ...
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence directorate (GUR) on Friday reiterated its assertion that the ongoing Russian push in the Donbas is a reaction to Vladimir Putin’s order to recapture the entire territory by March ...
Ukrainian forces apparently captured a Russian MT-LB amphibious tracked armored vehicle variant near Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast, according to the Ukraine Weapons Tracker OSINT group. Of particular interest was that it was up-gunned with a 2M-7 naval turret with two KPV 14.5mm heavy machine guns, normally used on Russian military vessels.
Russia’s rare 9A331MDT Tor-M2DT air defense systems are having bad luck in Ukraine. The Ukraine Weapons Tracker OSINT group posted that for the second time in as many days, Ukrainian forces destroyed one. The first was destroyed yesterday. The systems were brought from Arctic regions.
-—> Germany Now Wants To Send Cold War-Era Leopard 1 Tanks To Ukraine <——
The Leopard 1s are the latest tanks to be offered to Ukraine, but Germany first needs to secure sufficient ammunition for them.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/germany-now-wants-to-send-cold-war-era-leopard-1-tanks-to-ukraine
Excerpts:
The Cold War-era Leopard 1 is no longer used by the German Army but significant numbers are available from storage depots. However, the issue of securing ammunition for the older tank’s 105mm rifled main gun could be difficult to resolve. 29 is the planned number ... The tanks, which have not been used by the German Army for years, would require refurbishment before being delivered, which would be completed by a specialist in this field ... Rheinmetall: the company could deliver as many as 88 Leopard 1s, as well as 22 Leopard 2s from its own stocks. While Rheinmetall has said that these Leopard 2s could be provided within a year, it’s not said how long it would take to prepare and supply the Leopard 1s.
-—> Former Russian soldier reveals he saw Ukrainian prisoners of war tortured <——
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/feb/02/former-russian-soldier-reveals-witnessed-torture-ukrainian-prisoners-war
Excerpt:
“I have personally seen our troops torture Ukrainian soldiers,” Yefremov, who is the most senior soldier to speak out against the war, told the Guardian in a phone call from Mexico, where he currently is. “I feel relieved that I can finally speak out about the things I have seen.”
Yefremov told the Guardian he personally witnessed how his superiors tortured three Ukrainian soldiers captured in the town of Bilmak, to the north-east of Melitopol, in April. “During interrogations, they were beaten for a whole week, every day, sometimes even at night,” he said.
According to Yefremov, his commanders took particular interest in one of the three soldiers who identified himself as a sniper in the Ukrainian army. “When they found out he was a sniper, they flipped. They would beat him with a wooden bat, eventually shooting him in his arm and leg.”
He said that they also pulled the sniper’s trousers down and threatened to rape him with a mop as well as bring in another Russian soldier who would rape him. “They said that they would film everything and send the video to the sniper’s girlfriend,” Yefremov said.
-—> Chinese Spy Balloon Reaches Missouri <——
Questions and concerns are growing around the presence of the balloon and when the Pentagon actually disclosed it to the public.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-spy-balloon-reaches-missouri
[What every one needs to know: Chinese concept of Military-Civil Fusion - everything learned by civilian entities is immediately applied to military entries; everything learned by military entities is immediately applied to civilian entities.]
Excerpts:
Pentagon yada-yada. [shooting the ballon down over a largely unpopulated are some how risks civilian harm - you buying that?] ... while the exact sensor package the balloon might be carrying is unknown, a terrestrial aerial platform capable of operating in close proximity to a desired target and doing so persistently for long periods can provide very different capabilities than what one gets with orbiting satellites. Sensors can also be deployed faster and far cheaper and missions can be launched far more flexibly. Perhaps the biggest unanswered question is still why this was not disclosed and attributed to China earlier and such activity in the past has gone undisclosed until now
Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning described it as a “civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes” that has “limited self-steering capability” and that “deviated far from its planned course.” [However, apparently this is completely different from what was said in China in Chinese.]
Even if this particular balloon is ostensibly a civilian research platform, the sensors that it carries could still be able to collect data that could be exploited for intelligence value.
[For a fuller perspective see this youtube video, SerpentZA and LaoWhy86 break down all the latest news on the Chinese Spy Balloon]
-—> EMERGENCY - Chinese Spy Balloon Explained - Currently Over USA <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uIvMHy1LGc
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••Day 345.
A lot of new developments happened in the Luhansk region.
Here the situation here is very complicated - both parties are conducting offensive actions because both are trying to impose their own rules of the game.
The main vector of Ukrainian advance is from the forest toward Kreminna.
Russian Secretary of the General Council claimed that for them, Kreminna is the most challenging segment of the frontline because here, the Ukrainians continuously attempt to break through Russian defensive lines.
For these reasons, the Russians deployed a lot of their elite airborne units to this region, and over the last two weeks, a lot of geolocated combat videos emerged showing Ukrainian forces engaging Russian Airborne Forces east of Dibrova.
Other footage showed BARS personnel performing a combat mission in the Kreminna area, where they said that they could not advance because of constant Ukrainian sniper fire.
Nonetheless, despite the high intensity of attacks, the Ukrainians still have not reached Kreminna, and when the Ukrainian Spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces was put to question, he admitted that the Ukrainian pace of advancement has slowed down below their expectations.
In order to make sure that they reach Kreminna, the Ukrainians also have a second attack vector from Nevske to Chervonopopivka.
When the fights finally reached the main Russian defense line, the situation became critical, and the Russians doubled down on their attacks.
The main Russian vector of advance is from Ploschanka to Makiivka. Makiivka is extremely important because it allows the Ukrainians to control this segment of the river, where the Ukrainians can cross it very easily.
The river here is extremely narrow and shallow; in many places, it is less than 10 meters wide.
And because there are so many places where they can cross it, keeping it under fire control is impossible, and the Ukrainians can immediately attack Russian positions in the vicinity of Chervonopopivka.
But if the Russians take Makiivka, this segment will shrink tremendously and significantly undermine the Ukrainian offensive operation.
However, so far, the Russians have failed to achieve any progress here.
This forced the Russians to double down on their second vector of attack, which is from Kreminna towards Yampolivka and Terny.
The goal here is basically the same because by establishing control over these two villages, the Russians will close the hole from the south.
However, this is exactly what the Russians have done three or four times in autumn and completely failed.
Even when the Russians successfully captured these villages, they failed to hold them and expand control because they put themselves in a very vulnerable position, as they were exposed from two sides.
The Ukrainians leveraged it, opened fire from another bank of the river to fix Russian troops, and then crushed them from the flanks.
Some Russian analysts claim that this time the outcome should be different because after Soledar fell, the Russians are now applying a lot of pressure to the Siversk defense line.
And this can indeed play a role because Siversk is the main logistics hub that supplies the Kreminna offensive operation.
So, if the Russians collapse the front line around Siversk, the Ukrainians will not be able to maintain the intensity of their attacks as described earlier, where the Russians cannot even move in the forest. But, so far, Siversk holds.
Russian sources recently claimed that they breached the Ukrainian defense line here by establishing control over the village of Sakko and Vantsetti, but this is just the area with 5 houses and bushes in the lowlands, while the Ukrainians are still controlling all the hills.
If the Russians continue overestimating their advance and miss the timing, their assault units may be destroyed before they advance from the south.
But the Ukrainians are not passively waiting. They have reportedly doubled down on their attacks in the forest and developed a new tactic using HIMARS.
The most difficult job is establishing control over entrenched positions and fortification. Regular artillery is not precise, and there is not enough of it to compensate for the inaccuracy. That is why the Ukrainians started striking these fortifications with HIMARS rockets.
Their precision allows the Ukrainians to destroy the main fortification with one shot and then assault and take control of the position.
If this tactic reinvigorates Ukrainian advances, then the Russian assault units will likely be withdrawn to help defend Kreminna instead of assaulting Yampolivka.
But at this point, it looks like the Russians are preparing to once again try to reach the Zherebets River because the LPR authorities are planning to shut down mobile internet in the region.
The reason why they are doing it is likely because they will be relocating their tanks from Rubizhne, and they want to minimize the risk of leaks because it can lead to the destruction of the whole convoy.
