What’s this mean for gas prices? Oil is back at $80 plus add in a gasoline shortage....does that mean $1 per gallon more at the pump? $5 more? 10 cents?
If we’re going from a $15 to a $46 dollar average, that seems significant.
The rule of thumb is: for every $10 rise in the price of oil, the price of gasoline will rise about 25 cents. I don't know the shorthand for application to diesel prices.
BUT: Prices can jump around temporarily based on localized supply chain difficulties. Also, suppliers buy oil based on expectations of future price/supply interface. When they guess wrong, temporary price fluctuations can happen in both directions. Here's the real problem I'm seeing: OPEC is pretty good at predicting future demand. They think demand is going to rise by 5.3mm barrel a day this year. The world has no way to increase production by that amount due to lack of prior investment. So higher prices are the probably the reality going forward. Something would have to really whack demand down to stop that.