Posted on 01/19/2023 7:32:25 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
Will they or won’t they?
“US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will be “pressing the Germans” to allow their Leopard tanks to be transferred to Ukraine to provide the “capability in a crucial moment” to counter any potential Russian spring offensive, a senior US defense official told CNN Wednesday.”
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 18, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Germany And US Play Chicken Over Tanks For Kyiv <——
Germany won’t allow its Leopard 2 tanks to go to Ukraine unless the U.S. first sends Abrams tanks, which isn’t happening any time soon.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-germany-and-us-play-chicken-over-tanks-for-kyiv
Excerpts:
There are more than than 2,300 variants of the Leopard 2 tanks in NATO and European nation stocks ... But transferring them to Ukraine takes the approval of Berlin, which isn’t forthcoming. Nor will Germany send them directly.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has been very focused on not providing the Ukrainians a system they can’t repair, they can’t sustain and they, over the long term can’t afford, because it’s not helpful ... And this isn’t about a new cycle or what’s symbolically valuable ... It’s what will actually help.”
But the decision to send Abrams tanks is complicated by what’s in stock, the capability to train troops on how to use and maintain them, and the long-term expense of providing them.
Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl: The Abrams tank is a very complicated piece of equipment. It’s expensive. It’s hard to train on. It has a jet engine, I think it’s about three gallons to the mile of jet fuel. It is not the easiest system to maintain. It may or may not be the right system. But we’ll continue to look at what makes sense.
Kahl said the U.S. is still not ready to provide Ukraine with Army Tactical Missile System ... I think that our judgment to date has been that the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze on the ATACMS.
—
-—> Error, Malfunction, Sabotage Investigated As Possible Fatal Ukrainian Helicopter Crash Causes (Updated) <——
The Airbus H225M helicopter crashed in the town of Brovary, near Kyiv, with Ukraine’s Interior Minister onboard.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/error-malfunction-sabotage-investigated-as-possible-fatal-ukrainian-helicopter-crash-causes
Excerpt:
The SBU has said it cannot yet rule out the possibility that sabotage, pilot error, or a technical malfunction was the cause ... Videos reportedly showing the helicopter flying near Brovary before the crash show very foggy weather conditions ...
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••Day 329.
One of the most important fights is taking place in the Luhansk region, in particular, near Kreminna.
It is extremely important for the Ukrainians to establish control over this town because taking it can solve almost all Ukrainian problems in the east, and here is why.
First of all, by breaching the Russian defense in Kreminna, the Ukrainians will be able to rapidly take Sieverodonetsk and Lysyschansk into a pocket.
By collapsing the Lysyschansk group, the Ukrainians would also gain access to the rear of the Soledar group, meaning the Russians would be forced to stop offensive actions immediately and regroup.
On top of that, many Russian troops will be moved back to stabilize the front line because the Ukrainians will be expanding eastward.
Secondly, the defense lines that the Russians erected to the north and south of Svatove will be rendered useless, as the Ukrainians will just move around them and encircle one town on the line after another.
Thirdly, by moving past Kreminna, the Ukrainians cut off some of the most important Russian ground lines of communication, such as the highway that goes through Svatove and connects Russia and Lysyschank, and also the railroad that connects Russia and Luhansk.
Moreover, they will open more possibilities for themselves to supply the eastern group from Kharkiv.
Ukrainian officials declared that the Ukrainians launched an offensive operation right before the new year.
Since then, there have been two periods of freezing temperatures, several weeks in total, when the Ukrainians could increase the intensity of their attacks.
As many of you already noted, the task turned out more difficult than expected, and there are two reasons for that.
Firstly, heavy fights around Bakhmut and Soledar put a strain on Ukrainian reserves, as some troops were relocated south to speed up the rotation process and reinforce weak points.
Secondly, the Russians understand the value of Kreminna as well, which is why they deployed a lot of troops for defense.
Both parties concentrated up to 100 thousand troops on this 60 km segment of the front line, which is a significant portion of both armies.
Nonetheless, despite the slow progress, there have still been a lot of changes in this region.
Last time I told you that the Ukrainians pushed the Russians out of Dibrova and concentrated their efforts on attacking through the forest.
I also noted that despite the fact that the Russians were pushed out of Dibrova, the Ukrainians did not move in, as it is under tight surveillance, and everyone there is met with rapid artillery fire.
Ukrainian artillery is also very active. The Spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces has constantly been reporting about the destruction of ammunition depots around Kreminna, fuel storage facilities, and command posts.
And this interdiction campaign brought some results. First of all, Russian commanders basically abandoned Kreminna and moved to Rubizhne.
Secondly, Russian tanks started to experience shortages of fuel and lubricants, which affected the number of tanks that they could deploy at one time.
And as the Luhansk region is the area of resistibility of the 1st Guard Tank Army, the Russians relocated a lot of tanks here.
The Russians have released many videos featuring their hangars with dozens of tanks, so Ukrainian Intelligence and artillery are constantly working on identifying and destroying these warehouses.
Apart from artillery duels, a lot of action takes place in the forest. The Ukrainian side has published a lot of videos of forest battles, which show high-intensity fighting.
This goes along with various reports of Ukrainian progress from all sides. Ukrainian sources report that the Ukrainians are very close to the southern outskirts of Kreminna.
A BARS-13 [a reserve force of volunteers] commander claimed that Ukrainian forces are constantly probing Russian defensive positions south of Kreminna, and around a week ago, a Russian source published footage showing Russian forces fighting against a Ukrainian assault in the vicinity of Kreminna.
The Russian Ministry of Defense indirectly confirmed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups operate near Kuzmyne. The British Ministry of Defense noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing to advance on the eastern edge of Kreminna.
In order to counteract Ukrainian efforts, the Russians are doing three things.
Firstly, according to the Ukrainian Head of the Luhansk region, Russian forces have begun to deploy more experienced military personnel, rather than more mobilized personnel, to fight in the Kreminna area due to fears that Russian forces may lose the settlement.
These reinforcements include a substantial number of Wagner Group personnel, as well as Russian airborne forces.
Secondly, instead of purely defending their positions, the Russians are imposing constant encounter battles when both parties are attacking each other simultaneously.
This is obviously a very costly tactic because if the Russians were just defending, they would have smaller losses, but it is effective in the way that it does slow down Ukrainian progress a lot.
Thirdly, the Russians are trying to undermine Ukrainian defense in Bilohorivka and destroy all the pontoon crossings leading to the forest, although here, they are the least successful. Overall, the most successful axis of Ukrainian advance has been the forest.
Many sources indicate that the Ukrainians are reaching the eastern edges of Kreminna and defensive positions nearby. Artillery is playing a key role as well and made some very-well fortified positions simply untenable.
The fact that the Russian command was moved away from the city is also a very good signal. If the Ukrainians manage to develop the same success to the north of Kreminna as well, then the Ukrainians can start storming the city.
What young people in St. Petersburg think of Putin: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKBdG1X8DI8
Kremlin Readies for Putin’s 2024 Re-Election Under Shadow of War – Kommersant (Election Date: March 17, 2024)
The Kremlin has started preparing for the 2024 presidential campaign under the assumption that it will go on as planned despite Russia’s grinding military campaign in Ukraine, the Kommersant business daily reported Friday, citing unnamed sources.
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4124499/posts
RuZZian Patsies, Go enlist in Wagner.
Many of the young people are afraid to speak their minds honestly.
Yep. “Apolitical” is clearly a code word for “I’d rather not go to prison”.
These AiM-120s could be put to good use in UKR's NASAMs.
Russia hoisting Pantsir air defense vehicles on top of buildings in central Moscow right now. Putin’s Russia continuing their buffoonery. A genuinely clown world. LMAO.
Join Wagner. What are you waiting for?
My, what a clever response. That will certainly win folks to your side.
His turn?
Have you served Russia already?
The West is in desperation mode. They are throwing feces against the wall and hoping something sticks. Completely bereft of strategy. The decision to try to send U.K. and German tanks to Ukraine is the most recent indicator that London, Berlin and Washington are hitting the panic button.
ussian military forces, with the Wagner Group leading the charge, has breached the Bakhmut, Soledar, Siversk line of defense. While Ukrainian troops continue to occupy Bakhmut and Siversk, the Russians are grinding on and appear to have effected a tactical encirclement of Bakhmut. Taking Bakhmut and clearing settlements to the south of Ukrainian forces is a critical step in forging genuine security for Donetsk. When Bakhmut falls expect an uptick in the wailing and gnashing of teeth in London and Washington. They will be tempted to launch more desperate gambits.
Kazan is the name of a city in RuZZia.
Is that where you live?
What, I don’t get “Putin Stronk” from you? Hahahahahaha. Russia is the Second Army of the World? Moscovy is filled with buffoons and corrupt theives.
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 18, 2023.
- Bakhmut faces encirclement by Russian forces;
- The Netherlands is considering sending Patriot missile systems after West blames Russia for residential building strike;
- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovich has resigned after suggesting the building was hit because of a failed Ukrainian interception of a Russian cruise missile;
- The building strike appears to be serving as a pretext for a planned escalation by the US and its allies;
- Ukraine also lost its interior minister to a helicopter crash;
- The Western media admits current aid to Ukraine is not sufficient, although suggested increases will unlikely turn the tide;
- The US and its allies are preparing for their monthly meeting discussing expanded military aid to Ukraine on January 20, 2023;
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