“U.S. to give Ukraine about 300,000 155mm artillery shells stored in U.S. warehouses in Israel - NYT Reportedly, about half of the promised shells have already been shipped to Europe and are expected to be delivered to Ukraine soon.”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1615598095672156161
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 17, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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Extras:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: The Urban Hellscape That Is Maryinka <——
The pulverized city of Maryinka in Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian forces are still holding on, has been a battleground for nearly a decade.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-the-urban-hellscape-that-is-maryinka
Ukraine War: Drone footage shows Marinka devastation - Sky News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkNzORrFb34
Bakhmut Shelling: Russian forces move to surround city
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=58elKoSPc_k
Excerpts:
Shoigu noted that “all the measures were to be combined into the Comprehensive Build-Up Plan of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” according to the MoD. “In addition, they are to be harmonized with building the infrastructure for deploying troops, the terms of supplying armament, military and special hardware, and materiel within the state defense order.”
The main emphasis “is to be placed on manning troops with contracted personnel,” according to the MoD. “It is also necessary to organize timely provision of units and formations with armament, military and special hardware, as well as other material.”
The plan apparently is taking four Ukrainian regions.
It also calls for increasing “the number of training grounds in the military districts and new regions of the Russian Federation, prepare them for maneuvers, define the training scope of cadets and students in the higher educational institutions of the Ministry of Defense, and upscale the training scope of specialists in the training centers of the Armed Forces in accordance with the heightened need of troops by increasing capacity of training centers and establishing the new ones.”
All of this, according to the MoD, “is to be provided with relevant budget allocation.”
Patriot Missile Systems:
the Netherlands [is] the third country to promise Patriots to Ukraine ... The price tag for [maintenance and sustainment] on the Patriot system alone is on average of about $500 million for three years
Leopard Tanks:
The decision sits on the desk of Germany’s new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, named on Tuesday to replace Christine Lambrecht, who quit after comments critics called insensitive, Reuters reported.
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-—> Russia’s Mi-28NM Attack Helicopter Seen Using New Anti-Armor Missile In Ukraine <——
Recent imagery also shows the advanced Mi-28NM variant of the Havoc attack helicopter, which is apparently only in limited use so far.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russias-mi-28nm-attack-helicopter-seen-using-new-anti-armor-missile-in-ukraine
Excerpts:
... more evidence is emerging of Russia’s latest Mi-28NM combat helicopters being used in the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. These helicopters also appear to be increasingly employing the new-generation LMUR, or izdeliye 305 missile, in combat.
As of early 2023, Russian Army Aviation (a branch of what is now the Russian Aerospace Forces, or VKS) has about 110 Mi-28s, considering the loss of a dozen of these helicopters in the war with Ukraine starting in 2022. The basic version is the Mi-28N. Less common is the Mi-28UB (only 24 of which were produced), which received a mast-mounted N025 radar, lacking on the Mi-28N, and dual controls. Even rarer at this point is the latest Mi-28NM version - it’s doubtful that more than 10 are in service ...
... the defense ministry signed an order for 98 Mi-28NM helicopters to be delivered between 2020 and 2027 ... The Mi-28NM differs from the N-version mainly in having upgraded mission systems and weapons. It introduces the BRLK-28 radar system that includes an N025M radar mounted atop the rotor mast, an OPS-28M Tor-M electro-optical turret carried in a much bulkier cylindrical housing under the nose and a new SMS-550 turret for the pilot (seated at the front). Both crew members are provided with an NSTsI-V helmet-mounted sight and display.
... the maximum range of the LMUR missile [Lyogkaya Mnogotselevaya Upravlayemaya Raketa, or light multipurpose guided missile] is over nine miles. The shape of the antenna of the AS-BPLA missile-guidance datalink installed on the Mi-28NM indicates that it has viewing angles of +/-90 degrees from the helicopter axis, meaning the helicopter is able to maneuver within these limits after the missile launch.
... the LMUR, compared to Russia’s other helicopter-launched anti-tank missiles, is a two-way datalink connecting the missile to the helicopter. The missile flies to the target area guided by inertial autopilot with course correction provided by the satellite navigation system.
Once close to the target, the image from the missile’s thermal-imaging seeker is transmitted to the helicopter operator’s cockpit by the datalink, and guidance commands are transmitted back to the missile. The operator can select a target for the missile. To communicate with the missile, the helicopter uses the AS-BPLA system. In the Mi-28NM, its antenna is built into the top of the front fuselage, while the Ka-52M carries it in a teardrop-shaped pod suspended under the left wing.
The LMUR, with a weight of 231 pounds including a 55-pound warhead, is twice as heavy as typical Russian helicopter-launched anti-tank missiles. Its range is also twice that of other Russian anti-tank missiles.
Theoretically, a single Mi-28NM could carry eight LMUR missiles on four APU-L twin launchers ...
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••Day 328.
Today there is a lot of news from the Donetsk region.
One of the reasons why the was so little movement in this region is that there are a lot of rivers and lakes that create natural obstacles.
However, two weeks of freezing temperatures covered the waters with ice, creating new opportunities for offensive actions. There are three main directions: Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vukhledar.
The most important developments happened today in the Advdiivka region. Here, the main goal of the Russians is to push the Ukrainians from Avdiivka by any means.
Avdiivka is one of the closest Ukrainian positions to Donetsk and Makiivka, which creates enormous problems for the Russians.
For example, if you still remember, right before the new year, the Ukrainians destroyed a huge Russian base in Makiivka, killing approximately 600 mobilized soldiers that were about to be sent to the front.
Of course, HIMARS would be able to strike this base regardless of who controls Avdiivka, but identifying this base and constantly monitoring the ground with UAVs would be much more difficult without such a valuable toehold.
So, having this stronghold right on the porch of the biggest cities in Donbas gives the Ukrainians a huge tactical advantage.
Unfortunately for the Russians, storming Avdiivka in front like Bakhmut will not work at all because if we zoom in and switch to satellite view, we can see that there are a lot of lakes, bridges, and tree belts.
And if we look at the topographic map, we can see that Ukrainian and Russian positions are separated by the lowlands.
For all these reasons, the only viable option remained to take Avdiivka into a pocket, which they started doing by storming Vodiane.
However, the Russians faced a huge problem - the natural barrier in the form of a river did not allow them to breach the Ukrainian defense, and they got stuck.
There was a series of attacks and counterattacks in this region which resulted in no change in the situation, but the weather conditions changed everything.
For the last two weeks, the temperature has been below zero, meaning that the water has frozen and created a natural bridge between the northern and southern parts of Vodiane.
Over the last several days, the temperatures once again started to increase, and from tomorrow they are expected to turn positive, so the window of opportunity to start storming Ukrainian positions from ice started to close.
That is why today, the Russians launched an attack on the eastern outskirts. The first group reportedly established a toehold, and the fights broke out.
As attention shifted and the operation developed, the Russians started sending reinforcements, which the Ukrainians tried to counter from the central part and stop them right on the ice.
Unfortunately, the frozen water changed the setting and turned the least viable direction for the Russians into the most viable.
The latest news suggests that the Russians have established control over the eastern part of Vodiane, but the fights are by no means over.
The Ukrainians can support their units in Vodiane easily, unlike the Russians. The Ukrainians will likely try to prolong the battle until the above-zero temperatures return and eliminate the possibility of supplying Russian groups over the ice.
On top of that, some Russian sources raised the alarm that the whole offensive operation is in danger because the last batches of artillery and mortar shells received in Spartak, Pervomaiske, and Vodiane are bad and cannot be used.
When it comes to the Marinka area, last time, I told you that the Ukrainians had to step back a few blocks in order to avoid the crossfire.
The Russians managed to establish control over this triangle in the northern part of the village, which opened access to direct fire control over the avenue.
Crossing it became incredibly dangerous, which is why the fights shifted a bit to the west. From that point, the front line stabilized, and the intensity of the fights decreased.
But everything changed today.
A lot of sources report intense artillery preparation. Ukrainian formations are still standing their ground, although looking at Marinka, it seems like almost every square meter has been shelled and destroyed.
Nonetheless, the Ukrainians are anticipating an attack and have already reinforced Ukrainian marines that are holding the defense with a dozen armored vehicles to meet the attackers. Other units in the region are expecting a new batch of drones.
Lastly, when it comes to the Vukhledar area, here, the Russians have been conducting a number of combat reconnaissance attacks. The Ukrainians are also reportedly actively gathering reconnaissance by using drones.
The main goal of both parties here is to be fully aware of all developments behind the scenes and be ready for an attack at any time.
Overall, despite a lot of interesting developments, the fights remain largely positional. According to many Russian sources, the reason why they are constantly attacking these extremely well-fortified positions is not to breach them.
Russian command does not expect any breakthroughs here. The reason why they are constantly attacking is to preserve the initiative.
But as long as the Ukrainian defense stands and the Russians cannot build their bases in Donetsk and Makiivka, Russian actions do not harm Ukrainian operational goals.
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for January 18, 2023. - Bakhmut faces encirclement by Russian forces;
- The Netherlands is considering sending Patriot missile systems after West blames Russia for residential building strike;
- Ukrainian presidential adviser Arestovich has resigned after suggesting the building was hit because of a failed Ukrainian interception of a Russian cruise missile;
- The building strike appears to be serving as a pretext for a planned escalation by the US and its allies;
- Ukraine also lost its interior minister to a helicopter crash;
- The Western media admits current aid to Ukraine is not sufficient, although suggested increases will unlikely turn the tide;
- The US and its allies are preparing for their monthly meeting discussing expanded military aid to Ukraine on January 20, 2023;
No big announcement from Putin in his speech today - sounded like mostly trying to justify the war to his domestic audience.
It’s funny how u have reply 20-30 times to yourself to generate an appearance of any interest in your fake news.....
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Soledar mop up completed and salt mine 7 liberated....
no Salt for you today.
things must be very very bad for Z-ski given the recent amount of Zeeper propaganda!
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If the attack on Krasna Gora captures high ground, m-03 road which brings supplies from Slavansk would be within artillery range..bakmut northwest encirclement advancing...
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Wagner advancing around Klesheevaka..High ground there would bring the supply road from Constantinovka in artillery range..Bakmut southwest encirclement advancing.
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I wouldn’t want to be in Bakmut.Biden don’t care about the last Ukrainian!
Siversk Front at risk in major pincer, as Russia attacks Vasyukivka and Serebryanka... DPA update
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgRGcJ7RzcI
@KyivIndependent 1h
⚡️CNN: US to announce $2.5 billion in military aid to Ukraine.
The US is reportedly finalizing a $2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine, including Stryker combat vehicles and more Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, CNN reported, citing two undisclosed U.S. officials.