Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Jan 14, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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••Day 325.
Today there is a lot of news.
First of all, the Russians conducted a massive missile strike targeting critical civilian infrastructure in different parts of the country.
According to the Ukrainian General Stuff, the Russians launched 33 rockets in total.
In the first wave, the Russians attacked the capital of Ukraine with S-300 anti-aircraft missiles from the northern axis.
Even though these rockets are mainly used for air defense purposes, the system can be repurposed for surface-to-surface use.
In the second wave, the Russians launched Kaliber rockets from the Black Sea, cruise missiles from Tu-95 aircraft, and guided missiles of various types.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that they shot down 21 rockets in total, implying a 64% success rate.
This is much lower than usual because the Russians used a lot of S-300 missiles in these strikes.
These are the worst rockets for the Ukrainians because they are launched from a distance of fewer than 200 km, and they fly low and fast, which makes them extremely difficult to intercept.
When it comes to the targets that suffered the strike, in Kyiv, Vinnytsia, and Burshtyn the Russians targeted Thermal Power plants.
In other regions, the Russians targeted substations and similar energy facilities.
The most successful Russian strike was near Burshtyn. Judging by the picture, the missiles hit the turbine hall of the station, and at least three of the station’s 12 generators were destroyed.
The damage to the building, technical and steam pipelines make it very difficult to operate the rest of the turbines.
Soon after, the energy company DTEK announced that one of the power plants stopped generating energy, and it looks like they are talking about this one.
This is extremely bad because this power plant allowed to control of the power on the turbines by a quick change in speed which allowed to balance the energy system more easily.
One of the rockets, unfortunately, hit a residential building in Dnipro.
In order to deflect the blame, Russian sources report that the damage was done by the Ukrainian air defense, which shot its rocket into the building by mistake.
However, even separate Russian military bloggers admit that the damage to the building strongly implies that it was a cruise missile.
So far, the Head of the Dnipro region confirmed that there are 60 casualties, 12 of them are children. But rescue is nowhere near being over, so the number of casualties is expected to increase.
Overall, since the beginning of the war, there have been almost 18,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, around 7,000 killed and 11,000 injured.
When it comes to the fronts, the most intense fights continue to take place in the east, in particular, in the Soledar area.
Last time I told you that the advancement of Russian attack groups in Soledar became complicated because the outskirts of the city are somewhat detached from the city center, which puts the attackers at the crossfire.
I also mentioned that the Russians started regrouping and deploying their airborne units in the area of Krasna Hora [south of Soledar] in order to tackle this problem.
The main idea of this new plan is to breach the Ukrainian defense that has been built along the railway embankment.
If successful, they would be able to fix Ukrainian troops in Blahodantne, and threaten Ukrainian supply and support of the Salt Mine and move into the outskirts.
However, the terrain here is very challenging. As of now, the Russians are controlling the small forest on the hill and Pidhorodne. If we zoom in, we can see that there are a lot of roads, rails, forests, and gardens. If we look at the topographic map, we can also see the hills.
The Russians have already tried to attack Krasna Hora in front by emerging from behind the hill and using their mobile units, however, half of Krasna Hora consists of gardens, which means that the Ukrainians have better cover and can allocate more forces to protect this direction.
That is why the number of forces that the Russians could launch effectively thought the field was not enough to establish control over the outskirts. And that is why they switched to attacking it from the south.
Here, the Russians are going from Pidhorodne around the hill, then leverage the tree belts and gardens to attack the closest Ukrainian positions. Almost all Ukrainian positions are at the same elevation, so the Russians can advance here relatively safely.
The first Ukrainian positions that the Russians run into are actually closer to Paraskoviivka than Krasna Hora, that is why the Ukrainian General Staff includes this settlement in its reports, and that is why some sources incorrectly reported that the Russians already took Krasna Hora. So far, a lot of clashes are happening near the Garden center, and Paraskoviivka remains under full Ukrainian control.
Overall, the fights are once again shifting to the flanks of Soledar. The Russians are trying to leverage the local heights to launch attacks from multiple axes, while the Ukrainians are relying on key tactical positions, such as Krasna Hora, in order to impede and complicate Russian advances as much as possible.
Over the last several days, the pace of Russian advances has indeed slowed down, and the number of attacks also decreased, although it still is too early to say whether the front line has stabilized.
WaPo reports:
“Russia ended 2022 with a deficit of 3.3 trillion rubles, or $47.3 billion, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov announced Tuesday — one of the worst financial years in the country’s history, as Russia’s economy bore the brunt of the high costs of its war in Ukraine and the pain of Western economic sanctions.
The $47.3 billion deficit contrasted sharply with a budget surplus of $6.7 billion in 2021. The only year Russia experienced a larger deficit was in 2020 during the covid pandemic, when it hit 4.1 trillion rubles, or $55 billion at the time.
According to additional Finance Ministry figures published by Russian business newspaper RBC, Russia’s annual budget expenditure also shot up by nearly 26 percent in 2022, apparently driven by military costs...
...According to RBC, military spending is expected to jump in 2023, by nearly 5 trillion rubles, or $71 billion...
...Russian spending on security and law enforcement is expected to soar by nearly the same amount...
...The Russian government had reportedly sought to tackle its ballooning budget deficit last year by dipping into savings in Russia’s National Welfare Fund, as well as by levying windfall taxes on Gazprom, the state-controlled Russian energy company.
The new figures were unveiled Tuesday amid reports that Moscow is planning a “revenue mobilization” and may press Russian state companies and commodity producers for more money to fund the war efforts, including a proposal to impose “one-time” charges on fertilizer and coal producers.”
(https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/01/10/russia-budget-deficit-war-costs/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjMzNzgzMzQ0IiwicmVhc29uIjoiZ2lmdCIsIm5iZiI6MTY3Mzc4NjUwMCwiaXNzIjoic3Vic2NyaXB0aW9ucyIsImV4cCI6MTY3NDk5NjEwMCwiaWF0IjoxNjczNzg2NTAwLCJqdGkiOiI0YjBmZTAwOC0xYzI0LTRiYjMtODljNC02YTkxNDZhYWIyNGIiLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vd29ybGQvMjAyMy8wMS8xMC9ydXNzaWEtYnVkZ2V0LWRlZmljaXQtd2FyLWNvc3RzLyJ9.-fb6wCAqgkSWDg8ys9EVExG5dm-hLsPcBL-xYSgtULE)
I have repeatedly mentioned that it is significant that Russia is on track to largely expend the old Soviet stockpiles of war materiel this year - but it is also quite possible that they will largely expend the National Wealth Fund as well, their version of the Social Security Trust Fund (which actually exists in their case).
Warm up the ruble printing presses for a wild ride!
