Posted on 01/03/2023 9:40:46 AM PST by Kazan
Have you ever played poker with a novice? I am talking about the person who does not understand the concept of a poker face. The rookie is dealt a hand of five card stud and breaks into a wide grin accompanied by a face flushed red as he or she gazes on at a full house. Only one teeny problem — the poker master on the other side of the table is holding four aces.
That is what happened today as Ukraine and the West reacted to news, confirmed by Russia’s own Ministry of Defense, that a U.S. Himars hit an improvised barracks of Russian soldiers and killed at least 63. Why the big deal? We have been told repeatedly over the last 8 months that Russia is suffering catastrophic casualties. What makes this so special and deserving of so much attention?
The answer is simple — this is the first time since the war started in February 2022 that Russia has suffered more than 50 casualties in one engagement in one day. How do I know? Because the Russian telegram channels lit up immediately when this happened. This is the first time I have seen that kind of reaction from the Russian side in the last 10 months.
The reaction to this missile attack highlights the stark contrast between Russia and Ukraine. The spokesman for the Russian MOD freely and frankly admitted to the “success” of the Ukrainian strike while the Ukrainian military — which is losing at least 200 men every day — covers up their losses and insists they are beating the hell out of Russia. The Ukrainians have told so many lies over the course of the last 10 months — e.g. the Ghost of Kiev, capturing a Russian border outpost, shooting down all Russian cruise missiles, driving the Russians out of Kherson, etc. — that this successful missile strike finally gave them something real they could celebrate.
But this attack is a lie. It was not carried out by highly trained Ukrainian troops sitting on an ample supply of Himars. This was done with Western supplied intelligence that identified the troop concentration and provided the coordinates for launching a precision strike. Moreover, it is highly likely that NATO troops were helping operate the Himar system. This attack actually is a sign of Ukrainian and Western desperation. It changes nothing in terms of the strategic picture.
The Saker beat me to it in making the correct observation that there is more to this Himars attack than the destruction of a company of Russian troops:
Still, NATO does not act just to show that it can act. There is a real, military, purpose behind these strikes. And it is not “just” to provoke Russia into some kind of response (not with tens and even hundreds of Russian missile strikes every day already taking place). . . .
Why would NATO want the Russian offensive sooner rather than later? In all its other actions, the AngloZionists have tried to draw out this war for as long as possible, so why would they want to make the Russians attack sooner rather than later?
Because the Russian General Staff is waiting for all the “ducks to be lined” up before attacking. Thus by trying to force the Russians into a premature attack date, NATO is, very logically, trying to prevent all the said “ducks” to be “lined up”. In other words, NATO is trying to force the hand of the Russian General Staff by increasing the pressure on the Kremlin to “finally take action”.
I make a point of watching how the media played this story today. I watched Sky News, Fox News and Al-Jazeera. All portrayed this as another major setback for the Russians and one more piece of evidence that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is achieving great success. It is mass delusion.
That said, it looks like the Brits are having a tougher time hanging on to that delusion. The top story on Sky News during the day was the escalating crisis of the U.K.’s National Health Service. Strikes by ambulance drivers and nurses are killing people and the grieving relatives are furious. Their focus is on the failure of the Tory Government to keep their loved ones alive. I did not see Brits clamoring to send more aid to Ukraine.
I think that January will be a turning point in the war in terms of Western support for Ukraine if there is harsh winter weather and worsening economic conditions, which will increase domestic political pressure on the NATO countries to take care of business at home.
“...payback for Korea, Vietnam...wars the USA should never have been in and lost.”
The war we lost in Korea as we stare in amazement at the economic miracle that is South Korea. Oh, I guess we did loose the N Korea part, and what an admirable success that poor country is. Now S. Korea sends military supplies to Ukraine, while N. Korea mostly sends masses of slave(?) labor to Russia. Of course it is possible these laborers sent to Russia actually consider being in Russia is an improvement over their lives in the total police state that is N. Korea.
Interestingly, while one could say China won the part of the war that ended with a N. Korea, and we lost Vietnam, look at the current situation. We now have decent relations with Vietnam and may end up helping their sphere of influence claims in the South Chinese Sea against China. Meanwhile Vietnam, which has had considerable success with Covid, is now sucking away international business from China which, if it did engineer Covid, has certainly shot itself in the foot.
By the way, does anyone have information about the actual situation of the claimed 100,000 N. Korean laborers loaned to Russia?
It probably was 600 or maybe even 700. The number repeatedly quoted by Russian sources remains at 63. So many were killed they had to make some much smaller admission. With that number “killed” the death toll would certainly have to be revised upward as some seriously injured died. I have seen before and after videos/photos of this School #10 which was a technical college. It was a large, square, modern 3 story building, standing in a large empty area (as shown by aerial photo) probably parking lot. The remains are total rubble with almost NO large remnants. Much more ruin than a single or even 2 HIMARs could cause.
Apparently a large number of soldiers were gathered to listen to Putin’s New Years address. Under then large amounts of ammunition and other explosives were stored. It is possible other soldiers were in their rooms/beds in the school, as photos did NOT indicate any barracks buildings near this large school. It is said officers were celebrating elsewhere. Russia also reports 4 HIMARs arrived and two were blocked. At least one HIMAR penetrated to the stored explosives—result horror. No doubt deliberately timed to celebrate Comrade Putin’s victory speech.
My vote is to believe 400 killed and perhaps as many as 300 injured. When I saw the wreckage video, many were reported still buried in the ruins, although no rescue digging was shown. Perhaps death was presumed because of the totality of the disintegration. How nice to have allies at hand to forward intelligence, verbally and in photos. Given how well Russia treats it’s own troops, I imagine they are doing a great job of winning friends and influencing people (to get rid of as many Russians as possible).
There was another mass casualty strike killing another 500 near Chulakivka.
There may have been another conducted by the Ukrainian Air Force in Fedorivka. Results are not in.
The reason for these large numbers is that Russian logistics is due to the bureaucratic nature of the Russian Army, organizational issues are sorted extremely horribly.
“The Ukraine ignoring the Minsk Agreements...is what got us to where we are today.”
NO, the deliberate murder by starvation of several million Ukrainians by Russians, is what WILL keep us where we are today.
Are Chulakivka and Fedorivka both in Ukraine claimed territory? Several days ago I saw reports of burning in Moscow, St. Pete and about 4 or 5 other locations in Russia. any further word on those reports? More details on these 2 new reported disasters would also be appreciated.
A different and also plausable reason for concentrated Russian troops (when not deployed in combat) I read elsewhere. This explanation was that the troops are kept together for supervision so they don’t escape or defect to Ukraine as prisoners. The housing of troops above large stocks of explosives is, of course, a horrible bureaucratic decision or lack of complete information to such a distant bureaucrat. Long may this stupidity continue!
Both reasons are true in that bureaucracy is responsible for the jam up in the first place because the troops cannot be dispatched in a timely fashion.
Chulakivka and Fedorivka is south of Kherson
“Two other wholly needless and pointless wars the USA should never have been in and lost.”
It’s all so easy to say that resisting the Communists who were openly trying to overthrow EVERY other government on the planet was “pointless”, in retrospect, after they were defeated (at least one version of them). But unless you can invent a time machine, go back and let the commies do as they please in order to demonstrate that the world would have been a better place had we made that choice, it’s just a silly assertion without meaning.
“Of course it is possible these laborers sent to Russia actually consider being in Russia is an improvement over their lives in the total police state that is N. Korea.”
It’s probably paradise to them. There’s meat on the table and nobody in Russia is going to shoot them as long as they keep working.
Hey, what’s a little Holodomor 2.0, between Slavic brothers?
thanks, makes sense
Slava Ukraini
“More Russians will die. And that is fine with me.”
I absolutely agree 100%. I have no dog in this hunt, but just to watch the inept way Russia is fighting is fine with me. Conventionally, a toothless circus bear. Nuclear...the jury is still out with me (they have only proved they can launch ICBMs - functional warheads are even harder).
Two locations south of Kherson. Shounds like a good move preparatory to a big move on Crimea. Hope, hope!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.