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Running short on time today, so a little shorter than usual.

Globalism / Great Reset -

(FO) In its 2023 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum (WEF) uses the word “polycrisis” to describe the array of threats and risks facing the world in 2023. “This is the year of the polycrisis, where risks are more interdependent and reciprocally damaging than ever,”
The WEF sees inflation, natural disasters, geoeconomic confrontation, climate change, and the “erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization” (leading to state collapse) as the world’s top five threats over the next two years, especially as the world decouples into eastern and western spheres of influences.
The key takeaways from the five areas of this report –

1. Inflation and the Cost of Living Crisis: Disruptions to food and energy markets will drive political and social unrest.
2. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters are expected to become more severe and frequent, putting stress on governments and increasing environmental and social risks.
3. Geoeconomic Confrontation: Conflict between nations over economic matters and “the weaponization of economic policy,” such as sanctions, export controls, and trade wars, “risk widespread spillovers” in the global economy. This will push nations to become more self-sufficient and less interconnected, accelerating deglobalization and further fracturing.
4. Climate Change: The top climate change risks, according to the WEF, center on the failure to mitigate climate change and the failure to adapt to it.
5. Societal Polarization: Social disintegration is a rising risk due to many factors, including the four mentioned above. The report talks about a values gap and inequality as being the two leading factors currently polarizing populations.
6. Societal Polarization: Polarization and social disintegration leading to violent social movements and state collapse.

OBSERVATION - Report is rather gloomy and is interesting as such. The GGR/WEF folks look to this level of social/economic upheaval to usher in its “Great Reset” agenda and world governance. Many of these issues appear to be driven behind the scenes by the WEF and affiliated govts and agencies. They are creating the problem in order to drive the world into accepting their “solution”.

Wuhan virus –

Pfizer was required by the U.S. and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to conduct multiple studies on its vaccine after the FDA approved the shot in August 2021 because regulators determined that without the studies, there would not be sufficient data to assess the “known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis,” or heart inflammation and a related condition.
Regulators were also concerned about the potential risk of subclinical myocarditis, or heart inflammation without typical symptoms.
The FDA told Pfizer to carry out six studies, with various deadlines for completion and reporting final results to the agency. The first final deadline arrived on Dec. 31, 2022.

Pfizer was required to submit a report on the study, which was to assess the incidence of subclinical myocarditis following administration of a third dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, or a booster shot, in people aged 16 to 30.
It’s unclear whether Pfizer met the deadline. The company and the FDA did not respond to requests for comment, and neither have issued any information about the study or its results since the deadline passed.

The FDA added a warning about myocarditis following Pfizer and Moderna vaccination to patient and health care provider fact sheets in June 2021. Both vaccines utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Prospective vaccine recipients were told the risk of myocarditis was increased after vaccination, particularly after the second dose of the two-dose primary series.

OBSERVATION – Pfizer committed fraud and both they and the FDA know it. Seems FDA positioning itself to pin blame on Pfizer, knowing the swamp will protect it’s corrupted basis for approval.

Economy –

Led by lower energy costs, acceleration in U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 6.5% in December, down from 7.1% in November and well below the 9.1% peak in June.

OBSERVATION – Inflation isn’t dead by a long shot. Prices outside of energy have continued under strong inflationary rates - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent for the month. Core prices were up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago.

And the relief from energy costs are only expected to be short lived as gasoline prices are expected to rebound to $4+ range by early summer.

As the US edges closer to a potential crisis on the debt ceiling, various elements are coming up with plans to circumvent any delay in the rise. Some conservatives are wanting to play hardball with concessions while the banking sector is warning of economic catastrophe for debt default. IMHO, the US has few options anymore given the uncontrolled spending and current economic shakiness and impending recession. Raising the ceiling is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario that plays right into the lefts hands either way.

Sky high electrical and natural gas prices are beginning to cause steel and aluminum plants to slow down and in some ways, shut down. This in turn is affecting the economy with layoffs and more supply shortages with higher prices. Decisions to shut down operations are of last resort, since shut down procedures are long and tedious and restarting takes another six to nine months. For this reason, owners don’t halt operations unless they’ve exhausted all other options.

OBSERVATION – Growing up, the Pacific NW had a bunch of Aluminum smelting plants because of the abundant supply of cheep electricity from hydro and coal plants. Over the years as population has grown and electrical supply has dropped these plants have largely shut down and disappeared. Now that business has been transferred to China – and we all know how that has been going.

Invasion of Illegals –

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is extending temporary amnesty status to thousands of Somali nationals living in the United States who would otherwise be eligible for deportation.
On Thursday, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced that the Biden administration is extending and redesignating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 18 months, which will allow more than 2,600 Somali nationals to remain living and working in the U.S.

OBSERVATION - They have not been the best model ‘citizens’ in Minnesota

Biden / Harris watch –

Peter Doocy on new batch of classified documents found in Biden’s garage: “Classified material next to your Corvette! What were you thinking?”

Biden responds: “My Corvette is in a locked garage, OK? So it’s not like they’re sitting out on the street”
Doocy: “So, the material was in a locked garage?”
“Yes,” said Biden, “as well as my Corvette.
“But as I said earlier this week, people know I take classified documents and classified material seriously,” Biden said.

Now a third discovery has been announced. The finding came at Biden’s personal residence in Wilmington, Delaware, and follows two other classified batches from his vice presidential days that were flagged last year, Attorney General Merrick Garland revealed Thursday.
...
So far, there have been at least three distinct classified document discoveries. The first came on Nov. 2 of last year, while a Biden lawyer was clearing out a closet in the president’s old office space at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, a foreign policy-focused think tank. Biden “periodically used this space from mid-2017 until the start of the 2020 campaign,” according to White House counsel Richard Sauber.

OBSERVATION - As noted under politics, this could be the start of a move to keep biden off the 2024 ticket.

But we can rest assured that biden takes security of his Corvette more seriously than the boxes of highly classified document in his possession.

Anyone notice that harris has dropped off the radar for the past several months – perhaps in part is her continued demonstrated incompetence on full display at a recent press conference where she tossed some whopper word salads –

Kamala: “It is the Caribbean nations, island nations in the Western hemisphere. That is where the Caribbean is. We are also in the Western Hemisphere. They are our neighbors.”

Harris: “I think of this moment as a moment that is about great momentum, inspired by, yes, optimism… but also inspired by also our collective ability to see what can be unburdened by what has been.”

Harris: “Always think about complex issues through the frame of a Venn diagram.”

CW2/Domestic violence –

The U.S. Department of Education has launched an investigation based on the American Civil Liberties Union’s (ACLU) complaint against Granbury Independent School District (GISD) and Superintendent Jeremy Glenn which centers on the removal of controversial books as well as related comments made by Glenn.

RELATED: Cross-dressing Book for Pre-K Students Crossed the Line
ACLU alleges GISD exhibited anti-LGBT discrimination and violated Title IX, the federal civil rights law prohibiting sex-based discrimination, but reinterpreted by the Biden administration to include sexual orientation and gender identity.

OBSERVATION – A different kind of incident for the CW2 topic, but I see this as just one of the many stressors that are increasing the cultural split in his country that may well end up in a violent split of the country. Here the biden regime is trying to force by ‘law’ radical LGBT agenda on the children.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Attorney General Merrick Garland has just announced that he is appointing a special counsel to investigate whether Biden mishandled classified information during his time in private life. The DoJ named Robert Hur, a partner at Gibson Dunn, as the special prosecutor.

OBSERVATION – Some are wondering if this is the next step in preventing a second biden run for the presidency, given how the MSM is largely not providing cover for him on this scandal.

RELATED - Robert Hur is the man who served as the DOJ point man to Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation looking into Donald Trump’s alleged side hustle as a Russian secret agent — Double 45.
He is the same guy who vetted retired British spy Christopher Steele, a disgraced (sensing a pattern here?) spy who was fired by the FBI (and then used on the QT by his cutout Bruce Ohr) and hired actual Russian spies on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to make up information on Trump.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Pending further confirmation but reports that a large number of U.S. army tanks and military vehicles began arriving at the Dutch port of Vlissingen on Wednesday (January 11), ahead of their transport to Poland and Lithuania later this year as part of moves to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. The equipment includes large numbers of M-1 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, of Fort Hood, Texas. Dutch armed forces are helping with marine security and guarding the port area where the vehicles will be housed before they continue East.

OBSERVATION – I’ve not seen any announcements of this level of deployment, though could have been overwhelmed by other news.

China –

WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.

China’s exports reportedly shrank by 9.9% year-on-year in December, following an 8.7% contraction in November. “The outlook for exports remains weak, given the combination of slowing global growth and ongoing consumer shift from goods towards services.

OBSERVATION – This is reflected globally via supply shortages and the drive to relocate production to other nations or back to the home countries. This is going to make China’s global plans a lot harder to follow through on.

Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.

At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.

Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.

While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.

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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control over Soledar since last night, however there are unconfirmed reports of a Ukraine counter attack on going. Information has been mixed, but it is likely Russia has made more gains in the town.

Continued Russian attacks against Bahkmut and outskirts of Donetsk. Most of the Russian artillery strikes were reported along the line from Svatove south to the Donetsk region. Widely scattered elsewhere.

OUTLOOK ——
I expect that barring a surprise, Russia will start consolidating Soledar and try to pivot for an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in nearby Bakhmut. The key issue is does Russia have the forces left to exploit this in any meaningful manner. They have put tremendous residual resources in this fight that will be necessary if Ukraine kicks off a winter offensive.

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Europe / NATO General –

NATO said Friday that it would deploy its fleet of E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance aircraft (AWACS) to Romania in order to perform reconnaissance of Russian military movements in Ukraine. The aircraft will reportedly operate out of a military airbase near the capital of Bucharest.

OBSERVATION – Monitor any potential Russian winter offensive

Iran –

There were no reported protests in Iran for the second consecutive day on January 12, 2023.

OBSERVATION – I noted a few posts ago that the protests are shifting to an underground movement in the face of ever violent govt suppression.