Posted on 11/25/2022 10:22:20 AM PST by Kazan
Since NATO supplied air defense systems are failing to stop Russia’s relentless missile attack on Ukraine’s electrical and power grid, may be it is time for Volodymyr Zelensky to bring in Tom Bodett. Most U.S. residents know Tom Bodett because of his tag line in a Motel 6 commercial — i.e., “We’ll leave the light on for you.”<>
Bodett’s promise to keep a light on stands in stark contrast to the reality facing Kiev and Lviv and other major cities across Ukraine. Ukraine, even with NATO support, is struggling to keep the lights and heat on. It is a grim situation and will only get worse in the coming days as temperatures continue to plummet and Ukriane’s power generating system degenerates. Gonzalo Lira provides a report from the front lines on this reality.
Gonzalo sent me some additional comments that are salient:
So an electrical outage might be two hours or forever—you cannot find out while you’re waiting. This uncertainty is what I think will drive a HUGE number of people to lose their nerve and flee to the West. Which is why I think a second migration wave this winter is definitely coming to Europe, from Ukraine. And since this wave will not be by rail—obviously, because no electricity means no rail system—then it’s going to be by car. Which will be chaotic, disorganized, completely clogging up the roads as whatever vehicle is available will be used by civilians to get out. And of course, many of these vehicles will run out of gas in this parking lot, creating even more havoc.
There’s another factor: Heating cars. Most people keep their cars in heated garages during the winter. Car batteries die very quickly when it’s 15 below 0. If there’s no electricity, there’ll be no heat—so cars might not run, once winter fully sets in. That might factor into people’s decisions whether to leave or stay, or whether they CAN leave or stay. If your car battery is dead and there’s no electricity to charge it, your car becomes a tchotchke.
Bottom line, it’s going to get supremely ugly, if the power is permanently cut in Ukraine. Because it is not possible to survive in this winter climate without heat and water, and the entire infrastructure to deliver both is dependent on electricity, with no substitutes or practical large-scale workarounds.
The war in Ukraine has exposed the fact that United States and NATO do not have a viable anti-missile defense system that can shoot down Russian hyper sonic missiles. Russia enjoys a clear technological edge over the West, not just with viable hyper sonic missiles but with an integrated air defense system that is designed to shoot down hyper sonics that the West does not yet have in its inventory of weapons systems.
I had planned to write more on this but Andrei Martyanov beat me to the punch with his piece, Hypersonic Ad Nauseam On Thanksgiving. He writes:
There is some constant media “movement” and hassle around the US program of development of hypersonic weapons, which even a few short years ago, especially before March 2018, very many in the US in general, and Pentagon in particular, counted as a gimmick and boutique weapon systems. Boy, did they miscalculate. Now, suddenly, the United States are into hypersonics big time primarily into what could be defined as medium-range glide body for CPS (Conventional Prompt Strike). . . .
And here is the point of which we can now start talking confidently. As I write non-stop and ad nauseam–NO weapons system, even the most advanced exists in the technological and operational vacuum, the thing which Pentagon still didn’t learn. Real integration comes with REAL, that is making operational sense and impact, integration of weapon system into the network of other weapons and systems which operate as unified organism. And here is the point: the United States now is involved in a life and death struggle with Russia, trying to preserve its increasingly untenable (and grossly exaggerated) status of a hegemon. But! But, if Russian hypersonic weapons created a revolution in military affairs, American ones will fail to do so. Here is an interesting explanation from Colonel (Ret.) Knutov, who today is a Director of Russia’s Air Defense Forces museum. This is how he assesses the US program and the state of the affairs.
I encourage you to read the entire piece. One of the other major consequences of Russia’s campaign to turn off the electrical power in Ukraine is the psychological damage inflicted on the population. Gonzalo mentions this in his video above. The modern generation, whether in Ukraine or the United States, is accustomed to having information in real time and readily available. Very few in modern industrial nations know what it is like to be cut off from news about world events. That knowledge or information plays a key role in shaping public attitudes. I lived in rural Honduras in 1978. We only had electricity, thanks to a generator, two hours a night. If I was lucky I was able to pick up a BBC broadcast and get some idea of what is going on in the world.
What we will see in the coming weeks from Ukrainians who remain in darkened, electricity starved cities are people cut off from their political leadership and filled with a genuine feeling of being abandoned. This is not an imaginary condition. People will be compelled by the cold, the lack of heat and dead batteries to come up with some sort of survival strategy. This will erode dramatically Ukraine’s ability to maintain a viable army in the field. Soldiers who, until now, have been able to phone home and chat with loved ones will no longer have that lifeline to the outside world.
Have you ever been in a situation where you were separated from a loved one and could not communicate with them for more than 24 hours, especially when you do not know if they are alive or dead? During World War I, soldiers in the trenches in France had no expectation of any immediate communication. They depended on letters from home for news and those communications were delayed by days and even weeks. But we live in a different era and there is now an expectation of immediacy. Once expectations are set at a high level and a gap emerges where reality falls far short of the expectations, that is a recipe for unrest and even revolt.
Can you imagine the withdrawal the 20 and 30 year olds in Ukraine will experience when their phones and computers are dead and they can no longer text or call a friend? I am not sure the intelligence communities of various nations have even taken time to cogitate on the implications of such a development. The most likely outcome is that people will vote with their feet and go to where they can charge their phones and make a call. This means mass emigration into neighboring countries with viable power girds.
Yes. Putin is a war criminal.
Faces death or tribunal.
Thanks for illustrating it.
Let’s get in that Cold War can do spirit. How many C-47s do we have left?
https://youtu.be/R_O94G8Qbpo
I only go to true value hardware cause Pat Summerall sent me.
Worse then that it really sucks cause no one will honor the guarantee on my Men’s warehouse clothes any more
Surrender to the Russians so you can charge your phones.
Ukraine will survive this. Putin won’t.
In retrospect, Minsk 2 was the deal of the century.
Ever hear of “Operation Starvation”? The US plan to starve 25+ million Japanese to death. War criminals Truman, Churchill, FDR, etc.? You know these things happen during wars. If you and your corrupt warmongering DC fellow travelers are concerned about having all your cannon fodder frozen to death why don’t you buy a plane ticket and go kill some Russians yourself. Don’t tell me the big brave warmonger has an aversion to bullets and cold.
You guys post this stuff with a sense of glee.
It’s as if you are kind of excited by the thought of freezing old women and young children.
I understand the strategy. In the civilized world, deliberately attacking the old and young is considered a war crime. That must give you the largest of war woodys.
You should be ashamed.
We developed specific weapons to short out substations and did it to Serbia. That’s why Putin will probably never be convicted over anything like this, as if he could be captured anyway. I doubt he cares if his buffer zone is populated or not and he doesn’t even have to use nukes.
Minsk 2 was the deal of the century.
Too bad the UkroNazis running the Zelensky puppet only pretended to abide by it, to buy time to attack the [Russian] Donbass.
Think of how many lives would have been saved.
https://alethonews.com/2022/06/17/minsk-deal-was-used-to-buy-time-ukraines-poroshenko/
Fair point.....
Clinton wagged the dog after an intern gobbled his.
Those calling Western air defense systems “a failure” over this have little understanding of geography and capabilities.
The Ukraine is huge and these systems work better in a smaller airspace (like Israel) or you would have to possess a LOT of systems.
As tragic as this is for the Ukrainian people my kids and grandchildren will share the pain throughout their lives as our government will pay to rebuild Ukraine.
The same contractors who got rich during our “war on terror” and occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan (and basing in Kuwait and elsewhere) must be licking their chops and you know they are pushing the conflict.
NATO will pledge a lot and pay little as usual.....
What a tragic mess this is.
The end game is a 21st. century holodomor. Putin dreams of eclipsing Stalin. No joke.
90% of the money stays in the hands of the bosses of the MIC. Taxpayers buy the tanks and rockets, they get blown up somewhere (or left behind), rinse, repeat.
I can't put my finger on it this moment, and this graph is old, but gives you the idea.
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the arrivals of the energy infrastructure brought it to the stage of arbitrary and uncontrolled imbalance. The power industry was warned about this by the Office of the President, which leaves only negative scenarios for critical infrastructure. The only way out is to travel abroad, or move to the countryside from the cities.
Resident
forwarded from
Observer
Ukrainians should be ready to leave the country before winter, if they can. Such a statement in an interview with the BBC was made by the head of DTEK Maxim Timchenko.
BBC draws attention to the fact that the Ukrainian government has previously advised Ukrainians abroad not to return home due to lack of electricity. And the UN warned of an impending humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine due to the approach of winter cold.
Recalling that recent Russian missile strikes have disabled almost half of Ukraine’s energy network, Maxim Timchenko warned that another massive attack could disable the entire system. He said that Ukrainians should consider moving to ease the burden on the energy system.
“This is not an emergency when you need to immediately evacuate, but we need to organize everything so that consumption is as efficient as possible. If you consume less, hospitals with wounded soldiers will be guaranteed to receive electricity,” said the head of DTEK.
Resident
In early September, the Office of the President received information from British intelligence about plans to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, but Bankova was unable to work out a scenario that would allow the country to get through the winter. In a month of active missile strikes against critical infrastructure, we have found ourselves on the verge of an energy collapse that could destroy the entire industry in the country and cause a food crisis.
Resident
Telecom specialists and technicians working for major mobile operators are sounding the alarm: due to regular power outages and power surges, repeater equipment and uninterruptible power supplies at cell towers have begun to fail. While the problem can be eliminated, but the system is experiencing a significant load.
Resident
Deputy Head of the Presidential Office of Ukraine Kirill Tymoshenko confirmed our #Insight from the Office of the President that Bankova decided not to sow panic over a possible lack of electricity / heat in Ukraine.
“As for a possible blackout, there is definitely no need to leave the country,” Kirill Tymoshenko said.
According to him, the country is ready for any scenarios, and even in the worst of them, the power industry will be faced with the task of restoring electricity in a few days.
On Bankovaya, they repeat the track with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and when a blackout occurs in the country, they will tell us that everyone knew, but decided not to sow panic...
Despite the warnings from DTEK , Ukrainians are assured that everything is fine.
Resident
City mayors are the first to take the blackout problem seriously, given the experience of Alchevsk and the implications for the city. While a decision has been made on Bankovaya to stop information about possible catastrophes and not disperse panic (as with a war), city mayors have decided to act and openly declare problems.
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that the power system is not sustaining and each subsequent missile strike can disable it completely, provoking a complete blackout of Ukraine.
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider
Our source in the OP said that the Office of the President gave a command to all mayors, LOMs and the media to stop information about a possible failure of the country’s energy system. Despite the forecasts of power engineers and terrible scenarios (Alchevsk 2006), they decided to keep calm in society until the last moment and not sow panic, repeating the track with the Russian invasion on February 24th.
Resident
⚡️⚡️⚡️#Inside
Our source in the OP said that back in October the Office of the President knew about the complete destruction of the strategic infrastructure and decided not to return to the negotiation process. On Bankovaya, until recently, we hoped for help from the West in air defense systems, but now we will go through the winter without electricity. Zelensky will not negotiate and will wage war until the Ukrainian peace formula is implemented.
I concur 100%.
My respect for Eisenhower continues to grow.
I would also point out that the state department needed a new game after the misadventures in the sandbox and they worked hard to set the stage in Ukraine for many years.
It is ironic how many of our “public servants” in state, intel, and even the FBI who were assigned to the Ukraine during the color revolution immediately went to work for the very NGO’s, defense companies, and contractors they were funneling my kids money through.
What we are doing to our children (and children in the Ukraine) is immoral. Nobody could be happier about the destruction of critical infrastructure in the Ukraine than the UN and contractors because they will get a new playground worth hundreds of billions of dollars to play on whenever this tragic mess ends.
It is, asmittedly, kind of exciting watching Soros/Kitzinger/Biden/WEF and assorted scabs and harpies LOSE... because I hate POS humans of their ilk.
Watching FR types like you whine and piss like beaten wenches is just a bonus.
So…that’s a good excuse to kill women, old people, and children. All this is going to do is piss off the troops in the field.
You know better than this.
If any US proxy deserves getting 404’ed it’s the former state of Ukraine. Complete destruction is inevitable.
This disaster comes on the heels of Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan.
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