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	DeSantis flips county										Gillum	Desantis 22
											minus	minus
County	DeSantis	Gillum	Richardson	total 2018			DeSantis		Crist	total 2022	Crist	Desantis 18
Alachua	41,278	72,711	538	114,527	Alachua	42%	40,315	57%	54,766	95,865	17,945	-963
Baker	8,687	1,760	43	10,490	Baker	90%	9,594	10%	1,092	10,725	668	907
Bay	45,709	16,757	371	62,837	Bay	78%	52,584	21%	14,087	67,083	2,670	6,875
Bradford	7,698	2,671	54	10,423	Bradford	81%	8,346	18%	1,851	10,266	820	648
Brevard	162,213	114,921	2,127	279,261	Brevard	64%	170,558	36%	95,106	267,424	19,815	8,345
Broward	222,012	482,152	2,167	706,331	Broward	42%	251,215	57%	343,207	598,502	138,945	29,203
Calhoun	3,576	923	52	4,551	Calhoun	86%	4,180	14%	657	4,858	266	604
Charlotte	54,102	31,248	736	86,086	Charlotte	71%	65,470	29%	27,024	92,838	4,224	11,368
Citrus	47,729	21,197	1,249	70,175	Citrus	74%	56,283	25%	19,097	75,823	2,100	8,554
Clay	64,401	28,150	451	93,002	Clay	75%	67,287	25%	22,170	90,097	5,980	2,886
Collier	100,303	53,594	780	154,677	Collier	72%	117,470	28%	45,802	163,739	7,792	17,167
Columbia	17,426	7,105	139	24,670	Columbia	79%	18,790	20%	4,788	23,726	2,317	1,364
DeSoto	5,663	3,059	78	8,800	DeSoto	76%	6,637	23%	2,023	8,701	1,036	974
Dixie	4,663	1,008	65	5,736	Dixie	87%	5,394	12%	735	6,179	273	731
Duval	179,902	196,612	1,580	378,094	Duval	55%	182,555	44%	143,797	329,265	52,815	2,653
Escambia	74,719	52,835	868	128,422	Escambia	65%	74,603	35%	40,052	115,708	12,783	-116
Flagler	30,951	21,183	319	52,453	Flagler	67%	39,181	33%	19,176	58,693	2,007	8,230
Franklin	3,508	1,790	36	5,334	Franklin	74%	4,001	26%	1,405	5,439	385	493
Gadsden	6,200	13,712	65	19,977	Gadsden	37%	6,511	62%	10,804	17,425	2,908	311
Gilchrist	5,975	1,282	47	7,304	Gilchrist	87%	6,806	13%	1,017	7,868	265	831
Glades	2,647	1,095	29	3,771	Glades	81%	3,091	19%	721	3,829	374	444
Gulf	4,265	1,511	48	5,824	Gulf	80%	5,148	19%	1,247	6,423	264	883
Hamilton	2,908	1,591	21	4,520	Hamilton	73%	3,145	26%	1,120	4,293	471	237
Hardee	4,486	1,802	37	6,325	Hardee	82%	4,558	17%	949	5,536	853	72
Hendry	5,177	3,516	76	8,769	Hendry	74%	6,134	25%	2,052	8,261	1,464	957
Hernando	49,671	29,426	730	79,827	Hernando	70%	56,228	30%	23,689	80,385	5,737	6,557
Highlands	26,285	12,783	273	39,341	Highlands	74%	29,498	25%	9,962	39,773	2,821	3,213
Hillsborough	234,835	281,598	2,996	519,429	Hillsborough	54%	261,904	45%	217,282	483,413	64,316	27,069
Holmes	5,940	737	27	6,704	Holmes	92%	6,214	8%	533	6,782	204	274
Indian River	44,925	28,460	385	73,770	Indian River	68%	52,266	32%	24,739	77,392	3,721	7,341
Jackson	10,771	5,019	72	15,862	Jackson	76%	12,409	24%	3,833	16,320	1,186	1,638
Jefferson	3,877	3,375	65	7,317	Jefferson	61%	4,310	39%	2,776	7,127	599	433
Lafayette	2,364	419	14	2,797	Lafayette	90%	2,617	10%	294	2,918	125	253
Lake	92,633	60,289	1,026	153,948	Lake	67%	106,575	33%	52,565	160,143	7,724	13,942
Lee	174,085	111,172	2,048	287,305	Lee	69%	189,333	31%	84,723	275,221	26,449	15,248
Leon	49,942	88,764	724	139,430	Leon	42%	49,242	57%	67,518	117,732	21,246	-700
Levy	12,084	4,718	148	16,950	Levy	78%	14,049	21%	3,758	17,914	960	1,965
Liberty	2,060	527	36	2,623	Liberty	85%	2,234	14%	371	2,617	156	174
Madison	4,345	3,235	20	7,600	Madison	67%	4,661	33%	2,293	6,981	942	316
Manatee	93,246	67,629	1,131	162,006	Manatee	65%	111,101	35%	59,785	171,706	7,844	17,855
Marion	94,901	57,392	1,316	153,609	Marion	69%	108,021	30%	47,119	156,034	10,273	13,120
Martin	47,820	29,133	351	77,304	Martin	69%	53,592	31%	23,740	77,656	5,393	5,772
Miami-Dade	311,581	478,958	3,684	794,223	Miami-Dade	55%	393,522	44%	312,946	711,815	166,012	81,941
Monroe	18,509	17,176	190	35,875	Monroe	60%	20,478	39%	13,306	33,995	3,870	1,969
Nassau	31,704	11,472	190	43,366	Nassau	77%	36,545	23%	10,968	47,753	504	4,841
Okaloosa	59,940	22,408	772	83,120	Okaloosa	76%	61,711	23%	18,558	80,991	3,850	1,771
Okeechobee	7,730	3,306	86	11,122	Okeechobee	80%	8,746	19%	2,078	10,885	1,228	1,016
Orange	174,228	296,257	2,447	472,932	Orange	46%	187,641	53%	216,184	407,181	80,073	13,413
Osceola	44,627	68,707	761	114,095	Osceola	53%	54,322	46%	47,378	102,808	21,329	9,695
Palm Beach	241,016	341,409	2,048	584,473	Palm Beach	51%	278,439	48%	262,597	543,713	78,812	37,423
Pasco	120,753	86,384	1,852	208,989	Pasco	66%	148,078	34%	75,339	224,972	11,045	27,325
Pinellas	207,677	220,818	3,293	431,788	Pinellas	55%	231,268	45%	189,513	423,424	31,305	23,591
Polk	136,711	104,057	1,611	242,379	Polk	65%	148,243	35%	80,161	229,995	23,896	11,532
Putnam	18,721	9,011	155	27,887	Putnam	76%	20,217	23%	6,193	26,590	2,818	1,496
Santa Rosa	56,148	18,207	556	74,911	Santa Rosa	79%	60,071	20%	15,087	75,669	3,120	3,923
Sarasota	113,211	94,986	1,286	209,483	Sarasota	61%	133,347	39%	84,580	218,855	10,406	20,136
Seminole	96,622	100,197	1,196	198,015	Seminole	56%	102,185	44%	79,641	183,171	20,556	5,563
St. Johns	83,658	46,206	532	130,396	St. Johns	70%	101,064	30%	42,865	144,643	3,341	17,406
St. Lucie	58,990	63,605	580	123,175	St. Lucie	59%	72,341	40%	48,993	121,964	14,612	13,351
Sumter	51,798	21,843	391	74,032	Sumter	73%	65,495	27%	23,715	89,460	-1,872	13,697
Suwannee	12,234	3,450	106	15,790	Suwannee	83%	13,648	16%	2,650	16,366	800	1,414
Taylor	5,942	1,877	51	7,870	Taylor	83%	6,308	17%	1,276	7,622	601	366
Union	3,841	972	26	4,839	Union	88%	3,995	12%	544	4,558	428	154
Volusia	124,819	100,478	1,619	226,916	Volusia	64%	144,762	35%	79,951	226,226	20,527	19,943
Wakulla	9,802	4,194	107	14,103	Wakulla	73%	11,032	26%	3,916	15,058	278	1,230
Walton	22,925	7,019	193	30,137	Walton	82%	28,646	18%	6,111	34,899	908	5,721
Washington	7,017	1,865	70	8,952	Washington	85%	7,786	14%	1,285	9,126	580	769
	4,076,186	4,043,723	47,140	8,167,049			4,614,000		3,105,560	7,770,419

Disparities in turnout by race and the financial and organizational collapse of the Florida Democratic Party at the state level seem the most likely explanations.

As a black candidate for Governor, Gillum generated enthusiasm among blacks, which the white Crist could not. In addition, the Democrats in Florida rely on GOTV drives in the black community. I have seen these in operation, with calls from the pulpit to vote, church picnics functioning as bring your ballot rallies for Democrats, and with buses and vans to the polls for early voting.

That takes cash -- cash for access and workers, cash for food and refreshments, and cash for buses -- and with an organization to make sure that all the pieces work properly and the work gets done. With the Florida Democratic Party in protracted decline at the state level, there is no central early source of cash and organizational help so the entire Democratic GOTV mechanism fell into disrepair at the state level.

This thesis could be tested by collecting and analyzing the precinct level registration, turnout, and vote totals in the key counties. If the decline in the Democratic vote was concentrated in black precincts, the thesis ought to be taken as highly likely.