LOL, rumors of Lavrov's hospitalization begin after he wears T-Shirt with suspiciously pro Ukrainian symbol and colors.
Posted on 11/14/2022 8:03:21 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
“completely evict the civilian population”
Strong sign.
No doubt that if they are doing that, they are also looting everything that they can.
If they fall back from there (all along the P-66 Highway, which has now been reported to have been crossed by Ukrainian forces North of Kreminna, and may have triggered this withdrawal), then their next fallback to the East will be defending the major transportation hub of Starobilsk and the H-21 Highway running South from there to supply Luhansk City.
If/when Starobilsk falls, that is likely all she wrote for the Northern Luhansk territory that Russia occupied in this year’s invasion. It is the big rail and road hub for that region.
Also of note, Siverodonetsk had been the Capital of Ukrainian controlled Luhansk since 2014, so its recapture might mark the re-establishment of Ukraine’s regional (Oblast) Administraton. Luhansk was the only Oblast that briefly came under full Russian occupation.
“Keep Russia on defensive in Donbas while advancing to cut off underdefended Crimea from left bank Kherson region.”
Institute for the Study of War anticipates the Russian main offensive effort to continue in the Donbas. They assess it likely that intensity of offensive assaults will remain high as the ground freezes and mobility improves. They will likely keep shoveling ill-prepared units into the guns, as they have been doing, as they become available.
“A cessation or prolonged slowing of combat operations over the next few months is therefore very unlikely. The Russians are emphatically not attempting to establish and strengthen defensive positions all along the line but are rather renewing offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainians will almost certainly continue their counter-offensive operations already underway. Both sides are already fighting in very muddy conditions. They will not likely stop fighting when winter freezes the ground and makes it even more conducive to large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare. Combat is more likely to intensify than to slacken as temperatures drop.”
Ukrainian guns moving forward.
Send more Artillery!
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Nov 13, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named War in Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... )
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
no major changes.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
continued exchange of Russian and Ukrainian attacks/counterattacks.
No changes
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Russia:
How they are improving their war effort or trying to. There is news today that the Kalashnikov company, which produces AKs and its a huge large corporation, is going to be the coordinator of all suppliers of weapons the Russian Ministry of Defense. This is an extreme centralization of the supply of all systems and weapons. It’s gonna backfire, and the situation is going to get worse.
That’s the first thing, and there will be tremendous corruption; Kalashnikov this corporation become like a gatekeeper with huge opportunity for corruption, and in Russia or in Ukraine where corruption goes very easily this is going to happen, and this whole centralization is the worst thing you can do in order to have a supplier, if you want to derail the whole idea of supplying weapons to Minister of Defense, that’s what you will do so.
Long long-term viewers would not be surprised to learn that Ukraine does the same thing. The Russian Minister of Defense came out today & said the government will take over some of the companies in the defense space in order to create one huge government-run conglomerate, which already is there, which does not produce anything, a complete failure, complete corruption.
Both countries are the same: Soviet systems that act the same, completely incompetent, and they’re going to their 1917 moments - just who who gets there faster, who knows, but they will not be able to exist in the current form, the way they exist now, and unfortunately, its gonna happen in a brutal way, and not through the peaceful reforms, but through blood and sweat.
••Russia & Corporations:
Russian large corporations, they started tapping Chinese financial markets, they actively borrowing there and so far they borrowing plus minus US$5 billion equivalency in Chinese Yuan and equivalent is about US$5 billion - its not perfect, but it looks like Russia is able to to switch financing to China.
The head of the Wagner group, Y. Prigozhin accused St. Petersburg Governor that he is a spy working for foreign intelligence agents, and since for the spy traitor and so on so he asked local FSB - it was formerly known as KGB, but its always KGB - just it has million masks.
Prigozhin said that they need to check the Governor because he is a traitor What this really means is first of all, its a very unusual move, and he’s taking authority that he does not have unto himself, he’s challenging Putin by doing all of these things; this also tells us that there is quite a bit of tension within the Russian political top, and cracks are starting to appear.
Both countries are going to their 1917 moments: there are a lot of reports of mutiny among the mobilized soldiers where they don’t get any anything, or they left in the field with no supplies, and they tend to argue very aggressively with the officers, and so far, it still remains under control, but it flares up here and there, from time to time.
That’s how 1917 started in the former Russian Empire, when eventually, the soldiers will probably select their own officers, and they will start acting, and this is how a civil war will start because it’s like 1917 - just for those who not very familiar, that’s how the civil war in the Russian Empire started. That’s the situation inside of Ukraine & Russia: where they are going.
••Ukraine:
The capital of Ukraine, Kiev: the city is has been slowly dying, since all of these problems of electricity supply where people don’t have electricity for eight to ten hours per day, and its random there is no predictability: sometimes even for 12 hours - you cannot do anything, you cannot live normal life, you cannot have any business, anything.
As a result, there’s exodus of people from Kiev moving to the villages more to the west, probably some of them will start moving to Europe as refugees, and as a result the real estate market is non-existent.
Prices are in free fall, and prices for apartments, which is standard way of life in former Soviet cities, are down 70-80%. This is a situation where they say there is a blood on the street & that’s when you buy. But I don’t think there are enough brave people to do that, even if you follow that dictum, it’s probably should make you extremely rich.
••Europe:
What’s going on there with the gas storage the EU claimed is full, and its such a wonderful news, great achievement and at 95% - the problem with all of that is percentages are relative numbers; you always want to know both absolute numbers and relative numbers. There is a very clever spin everything is okay. we’re at 95%. The problem is 95% really means 103 billion cubic meters of natural gas.
The European full market is about I think 400 billion cubic meters, and and Russia was supplying out of that 200BCM. Supplies from Russia dwindled - right now is like 18, 20, 30BCM - are non-existent. Out of 200BCM, Europe has half, so its not really 95% its really just half. That really means that there will be significant challenges in Europe, even though all of this was supplied via LNG route, mostly from the US.
A) it’s extremely expensive. B) its only half of what is needed. There won’t be 200BCM because prices are too high, and the high prices kill industries in Europe. They cannot pay the extremely high prices. What’s the solution for this? The solution is to return back to conventional energy, and until that happens this limbo in Europe will persist, the inflation will remain high, and Europe will be going deeper and deeper into economic self-destruction, until there is enough civil unrest.
If this is not going to get resolved through through elections, eventually civil unrest will take care of it. This is a similar situation to what’s going on in Ukraine and Russia, where there are no changes at the top, which is in both countries extremely corrupt, and views both countries as slave plantations to exploit, and they have no desire to change.
Eventually, nature will take care of it, it’s just going to be, unfortunately, very brutal. The same situation in US is not as bad, just because US didn’t go as far as Europe fighting conventional energy production; it definitely did a lot, and that’s why there are problems in the US, but they’re just not as deep, and US is naturally gifted by tremendous energy resources - similar to Canada and to Russia. That also creates a better situation overall - its not perfect, but its relative on relative scale it is better.
••Energy:
Pakistan openly said its not going to support this price ceilings that the West is trying to impose on the Russian crude oil, and just for everyone’s understanding - crude oil is extremely liquid commodity; its almost like gold - think of it as cash because everybody needs it, you can sell it anywhere.
There is a rift between the West and Developing World which its not going to support the ceiling on the Russian oil, and the whole flow of Russian crude oil will simply go will go to India, Pakistan, China & anyone else at a discount, while the cost of producing crude in Russia is very low, the margin is still big, and huge - probably not enough to pay the expenses on this war, but it still means that there is significant supply of fresh blood into Russian economy, into Russian system, and its not going to stop.
Russia was quietly buying old tankers to have its own fleet of tankers, and so they can avoid this boycott from the more independent vessel owners that’s being implemented through the marine insurance, as everybody knows I spoke about that, so they will simply buy they already bought, and I don’t know how much more they will buy, or if they still are buying, or its 100% ready, but they’ve created their own fleet of tankers they’re gonna use to supply oil to whoever else in the world needs it.
Its not going to be simple: there’s a lot of moving parts, there’s a lot of managerial talent needed to manage this whole complicated systems, but insane - at the same time the system will function, but its going to be less profitable, but its still gonna work in there won’t be problem.
••China:
Xk Jinping is planning to visit Saudi Arabia, and probably all of the Persian Gulf with the idea of convincing them to be neutral in the future potential confrontation, because there’s still hope its not gonna happen - the future confrontation over Taiwan, and given that Saudi Arabia has an extremely bad relationship with the current US Administration, there is good chance that may happen, especially if its going to be guaranteed peace from Iran. Because Iran is its rival in the region, if China manages and Russia manages to reign in Iran, then there is a high chance that Saudi Arabia will be willing to be neutral to Chinese actions on Taiwan.
••Ukraine Energy Distribution System:
It remains the same, which means pretty bad, but it has not collapsed - it still works, it still exists. I mentioned before that the colder temperatures are coming putting more stress on the remaining infrastructure. What Ukrainian energy authorities are doing, which very logical and normal, is to extend duration of the the blackouts to preserve the equipment so it doesn’t burn out from overuse - the whole system might collapse, and if temperatures go down significantly more, which will happen even to greater extents, you may see 12 hours blackouts or even longer, and that’s a situation with the Ukrainian inner distribution system.
••Military Situation
••North Luhansk’:
Things here don’t really change literally attacks & counter attacks in the same places. The Northern section or area straight east of is becoming pretty active - again no changes - neither side has any success. I wouldn’t call it a meat grinder because there’s not that level of intensity, but a low intensity meat grinder; its like World War I situation, and as I mentioned before, the opportunity has been lost for quite, quite a long time ago for Ukrainian side.
••North Donbas:
Things are also the same: Wagner Group is doing their tactical attacks, moving ahead at the snail space, but eventually it yields some results, but so so far no achievements for today.
••Central Donbas:
Things here also very similar: no essential differences - attacks with the goal of capturing Adivka which is relatively important industrial site for Ukraine, especially for steel making, then unsuccessful Russian attacks, but its a road to nowhere.
••Zaporizhya:
The defensive position along the Dnipro River: things are still quite here, the troops have not been moved yet, some early units are already on their way to this front, to this section of the front line, but the large regrouping is is yet to happen.
Then this is situation along the Dnipro river is going to be pretty much quiet. There is no way for Ukrainian troops to establish a bridgehead there, and there is no need for that - they will look for opportunity on the Zaporizhya front line. There are two places for Ukrainian troops to attack - one is continue the pressure on North Luhansk’, and slowly and expansively in terms of human lives, squeeze out Russian troops out of here, which will not do anything, will not bring any meaningful results, just a squeeze.
However, the Zaporizhya front line offers quite a big prize for Ukrainian side, and more very likely we’ll see some action there - don’t know how soon its going to happen - two weeks or three weeks, I don’t know, maybe sometime in December.
This is the only opportunity that’s left for Ukrainian side, and this is obvious for the Russian Command as well; they probably will be redeploying all of the former Kherson Bridgehead group to the Zaporizhya front line, with idea preventing Ukrainian offensive there - this is something we’ll probably see within a month.
Is Russia making another goodwill gesture by not attacking Ukraine's electric infrastructure?
Where are the drones & ALCMs?
“Germany Nationalizes Gazprom’s German Business to Secure Energy Supply”
“Visual confirmation that Ukrainian forces have arrived at the Nova Kakhovka dam (Western Bank). This means that Kozatske and Vesele are liberated. “
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592266931201273856
LOL, rumors of Lavrov's hospitalization begin after he wears T-Shirt with suspiciously pro Ukrainian symbol and colors.
“begin after he wears T-Shirt with suspiciously pro Ukrainian symbol and colors”
And with his iPhone.
Freeport LNG export terminal restart is delayed again - maybe December, or even January.
“It’s Monday! Is Russia making another goodwill gesture by not attacking Ukraine’s electric infrastructure?”
Good point.
The do seem to have been dissuaded or deterred from continuing to pursue that strategy.
“Where are the drones & ALCMs?”
Actually, ammo constraints may be the driver, or at least a factor, in the Russians laying off the strikes on Ukraine’s electric grid.
@ChuckPfarrer
WAR OF AGGRESSION: Voting 94-14 (with 73 abstentions), the UN General Assembly has approved a resolution calling for Russia to pay reparations to Ukraine for the widespread destruction caused by its unlawful invasion.
“Is Russia making another goodwill gesture by not attacking Ukraine’s electric infrastructure?”
Other theories could be:
- That Russia has Ukraine’s energy infrastructure at the tipping point, and Russia is just waiting for an Operationally or Strategically important time to trigger those effects from collapsing the system.
- That the electric grid is already damaged to the point that it will collapse when loads increase during extreme cold, so they can save their scarce missiles.
- That Russia has reached a critically low level of certain missiles, and must reserve some remaining level for other potential threats, like NATO entering the war.
- That air defense capability has increased enough to change their calculus.
- That they have use of holding the electric grid as a hostage, to deter some other action by the Ukrainians or the West, like sinking the Black Sea fleet, providing ATACMS, or significantly choking off Russian oil exports.
- They may have been deterred by Western warnings of costs that would be incurred in retaliation for collapsing the grid, like huge reparations costs, war crimes trials for Putin and other top figures, provision of new capabilities to the Ukraine, or open season on targets in Russia.
- Possibly China told them not to, for whatever Chinese interest they could gain in negotiating with the West, by trading their developing veto power over their newly developing dependent vassal.
Infrastructure attack right now. Putin lashing out because he’s going to lose Crimea.
Infrastructure attack right now.
@WarMonitor3
1h
Russian forces have fired over 100+ cruise missiles at critical and civilian infrastructure today.
@IAPonomarenko
1h
All clear in Kyiv
@WarMonitor3
48s
73 Cruise missiles shot down by Ukrainian air defence
10 Iranian loitering munitions also shot down today.
“Infrastructure attack right now. Putin lashing out because he’s going to lose Crimea.”
It may just be that this is the only thing that he can do to look strong, and throw some red meat to his war hawks, while they are having to suck up humiliating and scary defeats elsewhere. Domestic political cover.
@NLwartracker
"The terrain there is very rough(marshlands) and it would be extremly hard for 🇷🇺 forces to advance and push the 🇺🇦 forces out once they settled there, the only road is under fire control from 🇺🇦 artillery based in the Stanislav & Shyroka Balka area. 🇷🇺 defensive positions here:"
Hopefully 73 cruise missiles shot down is accurate.
I wonder how many of the shoot downs were NASAMS.
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