Posted on 11/10/2022 6:24:25 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
“Ukraine has the forces to prevent being overrun by the Russians, but not the forces to liberate all of Ukraine.”
I’m more optimistic than you. Time will tell.
“Ukrainian forces are quickly retaking towns across the front in Kherson Oblast.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1590729463884808192
“Financial Times: Russia’s retreat from Kherson gives Ukraine firepower control over roads from Crimea.
Russia’s withdrawal from “strategically important” Kherson Oblast on the west bank of the Dnipro River would allow the Armed Forces to threaten a critical Russian supply route from Crimea, the Financial Times reported, citing Defense Ministry adviser Serhii Kuzan.
Three essential roads on the land bridge, several Russian logistic sites, and ammunition dumps would be within range of Ukraine’s western-supplied high-precision missile systems, the Financial Times wrote.”
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1590727294624366592
Warm weather. Maybe global warming is saving EU. Hahaha.
“Europe’s Gas Use Slides 22% as Households Keep the Heating Off”
“Europe reined in its natural-gas consumption last month as households kept the heating off amid warm weather, providing some relief to a tight market ahead of winter.”
Russia should never had attacked Ukraine.
It is against the UN Charter, which they are not only a signatory to, but also a permanent security council member who is supposed to guarantee the charter.
Now, before anyone pops off about the USA in Iraq, Afghanistan or even Bosnia, they spent a LOT of time before the UN making their case and getting a vote. The USA was wrong about the extent of Saddam’s WMD but that is after the fact. Still, that war shouldn’t have happened, but the UN did allow it. Russia did none of that—they just went ahead and attacked the NEXT day after Putin made his case to the world live on TV.
They are forever tarnished by their attack, which fell so far short of their dream for empire it is pathetic.
But Ukraine cannot remove them militarily. It just is not going to happen. Furthermore, people in the West are going to eventually pressure their governments to give up the enormous aid they’re currently giving. The spigot will wear out on both sides. Russia has some means of financing itself; Ukraine has none.
I’m just being realistic. Call it pessimistic even.
Little Pukin hiding in his bunker again.
“Putin supporters left reeling by yet another Russian ‘surrender’ in Ukraine”
“As Russia’s military commanders announced another major withdrawal in Ukraine, pro-Kremlin commentators have described the retreat as a humiliating and significant defeat for Moscow and President Vladimir Putin.
Putin kept a low profile as Russia announced Wednesday it was withdrawing its troops from the tentatively occupied city of Kherson and the west bank of the Dnieper River, which bisects the Kherson region in southern Ukraine. The military said it could no longer supply its troops there and was worried about the safety of its military personnel.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/russias-withdrawal-from-kherson-another-humiliation-for-putin.html
“But Ukraine cannot remove them militarily. “
Ukraine has liberated 50% of the land RuZZia occupied since early March.
They can liberate the other 50%.
“So it is stalemate forever.”
No, not forever. Russia can’t afford to be in this position forever.
“It is against the UN Charter, which they are not only a signatory to...”
Are they though? The Soviet Union was. And the Russian Federation apparently requested for the UN to accept them as the successor state to the Soviet Union, but the Ukrainians pointed out at the UN recently that a vote was never held on the request, so it was never approved.
“The spigot will wear out on both sides. Russia has some means of financing itself; Ukraine has none.”
Yes, but the Western spigot, which is financing Ukraine, can be left running for a whole lot longer than the Russian one before it goes dry.
“The spigot will wear out on both sides. Russia has some means of financing itself; Ukraine has none.”
War is a contest of both will and means.
In a contest of means, the Ukraine is totally dependent on the free nations of the world for support. The means of the combined free nations aligned with the West however, is much greater than that of Russia.
Ultimately, it boils down to whether the West has the will to see it through.
The cost to the West of capitulating, is accepting the end of the rules based order (UN, Geneva Convention, etc), and having the world revert to raw power politics, giving free reign for dictators to conquer by force, and to accept the horrors of the torture chambers of Bucha as the norm for life in the future.
Although Russia started this war with huge stocks of Military materiel, they have already burned through roughly half. That is a main thrust of this thread - tracking the attrition of Russia’s Military means. They are already constrained in terms of precision guided missile stocks (80% expended). In six more months like this, primary combat systems like tanks, Artillery and helicopters will be running into constraints. Russia is being demilitarized, as long as they keep throwing their gear in front of Javelins and Stingers and HIMARS. They can not go on indefinitely, as their losses dramatically outstrip their ability to replenish.
The Russian economy and finances, although initially strong, have been steadily worsening. This Winter, they are on track to get as bad as the 1990’s, after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Russian will may break at some point, perhaps replacing Putin, or the whole Government.
There may be some agreement to let the Russians withdraw. I don't see signs of a slaughter at the river crossing.
@WarMonitor3
9m
Ukrainian special forces have entered Kherson city according to Russian sources.
“they keep throwing their gear in front of Javelins and Stingers and HIMARS”
But RuZZia is destroying a lot of Javelin, Stinger and HIMAR missiles. Just not the launchers.
“Ukrainian special forces have entered Kherson city according to Russian sources.”
Nothing like the smell of success in the morning. Beats napalm.
Good post, but to me the real signs that Russia can’t continue are not their stocks of tanks, or precision missiles, but the simpler tools that are necessary to even try to wage war at all. They’re running out of uniforms. First aid kits. They ran out of AK-47s, the most mass-produced firearm in history, for Pete’s sake. And if that wasn’t enough, they then ran out of Mosin Nagants they had mothballed since the 19th century. Recent reports say mobniks were sent into battle without even a bolt action rifle to fight with.
If you can’t provide those basic necessities, the war is not going to continue very long, no matter how resolute you are.
“ New US aid package for Ukraine:
-Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
-Four Avenger air defense systems and Stinger missiles
-Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
-21,000 155mm artillery rounds”
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