The Russian army continues to attack Bakhmut. It doesn't seem to make sense

There's not much chance to take the city. And even if it succeeds, it's not a fact that it will bring great benefits

Bakhmut of the Donetsk region is one of the few destinations where the Russian army is still advaning. The report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that on October 21, the Russians advanced from the eastern outskirts of the city towards the center. According to Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar, Russian troops were tasked with taking Bakhmut before the end of October.

"The area looks worse there than in the First World War. There is no living place there, everything is dug up by artillery," said Alexei Arestovich, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, on October 17. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine posted a video of the positions of the Ukrainian military and also compared the battles near Bakhmut with the First World War.

The attack on Bakhmut is conducted by fighters of PMC Wagner. On October 14, this was confirmed by the founder of Wagner Evgeny Prigozhin. He stressed that there are no other Russian units near Bakhmut. "Wagner PMC almost always fight alone, so it's more reliable. The situation near Bakhmut is consistently difficult, Ukrainian troops are providing decent resistance and the legend of fleeing Ukrainians is just a legend. Ukrainians are guys with the same iron balls as us," the telegram channel "Prygozhin's Cap" quotes him as saying.

Military experts, with whom "Important Stories" talked, agree that the Russians have little chance of capturing Bakhmut. "Given the pace of the offensive in the Bakhmut direction, it is unlikely to work out in the coming weeks or even months," says Kirill Mikhailov, Analyst at the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT).

Military expert Yuri Fedorov believes that Russian troops can capture Bakhmut only in the same way as Severodonetsk - that is, completely destroying the city. "The Russians seem to have enough ammunition for this. But they will try to take [Bakhmut] at all costs," Fedorov notes.

Ukrainian military expert, Colonel Sergei Grabovsky told RBC-Ukraine that even if the fighters of PMC "Wagner" take Bakhmut, it will not give them anything: "Before going on the offensive, the enemy can hit the settlement for hours, weeks. After that, the enemy tries to move there. I'm not sure if they can take Bahmut soon, although technically they can capture him. But it will be a so-called Pyrrhic victory - when you have reached the goal, and you can't do anything else after that."

On September 11, shortly after the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Izyum in the Kharkiv region, the Institute for the Study of War wrote that the capture of Bakhmut no longer matters much. This is due to the fact that the loss of Izyum and retreat in Kharkiv region made it impossible to achieve the main goal of the summer offensive of Russians - the liberation of the entire territory of the Donetsk region. "The offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and near Donetsk have lost operational importance for Moscow and only lead to losses in effective units, of which there are already very few," experts said.

CIT analyst Mikhailov also believes that there is no special point in capturing Bakhmut for the Russian military. "It will bring them closer to the complete capture of Donbass, but not much. In addition, now forces are needed to retain other front lines, where there is a threat of offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In my opinion, this is largely a personal war between Prigozhin and his PMC "Wagner"," Mikhailov notes.

Military expert Fedorov has a different opinion: "Bakhmut plays a big role in the defense system built by the Armed Forces of Ukraine after 2014. And if Bakhmut is taken, the entire defense system on the Donetsk front may be seriously weakened. And there will be a threat of a breakthrough of Russian troops into operational depths."

Taking Bakhmut can not only have a military goal. Alexander Musienko, Head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Research, believes that the Russian side needs at least some success. "They are somehow entrenched in this direction and can conduct some offensive actions from there. They stubbornly break through because they think it's something against the background of defeats and lack of victories. They want to present it as at least some kind of success," "Channel 24" quotes Musienko.

Ukrainian military expert, Colonel Roman Svitan notes that another task of the Russian army may be to go to the "conduit" behind Bakhmut to restore the water supply to Donetsk.

Military expert Fedorov says that the Russian side suffers heavy losses that can reach several thousand people. This is due to the fact that Bakhmut is "a heavily fortified city where half of the buildings can be turned into defense centers."

Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Arestovich said that near Bakhmut Russians lose near the company every day: "We put them, according to the most modest, according to the most restrained estimates, somewhere in a company a day, really, of course, more. And there are new waves on the bodies of their fallen comrades. And the rod for one simple reason is there a double system of barrier detachments." The number of motorized rifle company of the Russian army is at least 100 people, the attack on Bakhmut began more than three months ago.

On October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking about the heavy battles near Bakhmut, said that prisoners who were sent to the front are fighting on the side of Russia: "The occupiers abandoned everyone they could against our forces, including two thousand convicts - they are among mercenaries there. And these are convicts with long sentences for serious crimes. They are held at the front not only by money, but also by the promise of amnesty." Fedorov confirms that prisoners are fighting in the Bakhmut direction. According to him, they play the role of penalty battalions, so among them are the greatest losses.

Ukrainian military expert Svitan, speaking about the Russian losses near Bakhmut, adds: "The largest density of enemy troops in the area of Bakhmut. This is important to us because it is easier to destroy them somewhere at one point. And just the biggest losses of Russian troops are near Bakhmut. They definitely won't be able to enter the city, but we will keep them there and destroy them to the last."

On October 22, the American edition of the Washington Post published a report from Bakhmut. Journalists write that the Russian army has superiority in numbers and weapons. The Ukrainian military, with whom the correspondents talked, confirm this.

Speaking about the big losses of PMC Wagner, Ukrainians note that people there are not spared. "They are used as disposable soldiers," says the commander of the artillery crew Vladimir. Another Ukrainian soldier adds that the Russians continue to attack, even when their positions are under fire.

At the same time, Ukrainians say that they themselves also suffer significant losses. Last week there was a moment when ambulances went to Ukrainian positions several times. One of the servicemen told how the Russians surrounded a group of Ukrainian military personnel and opened heavy fire. "There are not even pieces left of them," says the Washington Post interlocutor.

Journalists write that out of 70,000 people who lived in Bakhmut before the Russian invasion, about 15,000 remain now.

On October 1, Russian "journalist" Nadana Friedrichson posted a report on her YouTube channel about the offensive of PMC "Wagner" on Bakhmut. The description of the video says that Yevgeny Prigozhin's son, who allegedly appears in the film, is fighting near Bakhmut. The military who interview Friedrichson has closed faces, their names are not named.

Oh and Bakhmut is a different type of battle than what is occurring in Kherson. Almost like urban warfare…settlement by settlement, house by house, building by building. street by street against a dug-in adversary one of the most heavily fortified battlefields in Europe ( 8 years of Uke prep)….Which is why the RU sweeps are grinding slowly, almost measured by meters every day.

But yes, the Russians will take it because securing Donetsk is non negotiable. They have some specialized urban warfare units in the Bakhmut sector with experience in Syria and other battles. Some private contract, some allied …Small in number but could be very effective in turning the battle for city control

21 posted on 10/22/2022 11:48:51 AM PDT by silverleaf (“Freedom ultimately means the right of other people to do things that you disagree with”. T. Sowell )

23 posted on 10/22/2022 12:01:36 PM PDT by silverleaf (“Freedom ultimately means the right of other people to do things that you disagree with”. T. Sowell )

Hi.

“Oh sure, in war everything always goes according to plan….”

And if the battle is going as planned, you’re probably in the middle of an ambush. - Murphy’s Laws of Combat.

5.56mm

“Ukraine continues to take horrendous losses in both manpower and military hardware”

Yet UKraine has held off the Superpower Russian Army for 7 months in Putins 3 day war. Less than a dozen soldiers can fight now.

Good fighters those Ukrainians.

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