Posted on 10/22/2022 9:40:02 AM PDT by Salohcin
Translated from Russian with Safari Translate
There's not much chance to take the city. And even if it succeeds, it's not a fact that it will bring great benefits
Bakhmut of the Donetsk region is one of the few destinations where the Russian army is still advaning. The report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) says that on October 21, the Russians advanced from the eastern outskirts of the city towards the center. According to Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar, Russian troops were tasked with taking Bakhmut before the end of October.
"The area looks worse there than in the First World War. There is no living place there, everything is dug up by artillery," said Alexei Arestovich, Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine, on October 17. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine posted a video of the positions of the Ukrainian military and also compared the battles near Bakhmut with the First World War.
The attack on Bakhmut is conducted by fighters of PMC Wagner. On October 14, this was confirmed by the founder of Wagner Evgeny Prigozhin. He stressed that there are no other Russian units near Bakhmut. "Wagner PMC almost always fight alone, so it's more reliable. The situation near Bakhmut is consistently difficult, Ukrainian troops are providing decent resistance and the legend of fleeing Ukrainians is just a legend. Ukrainians are guys with the same iron balls as us," the telegram channel "Prygozhin's Cap" quotes him as saying.
Will Wagner fighters be able to take Bakhmut?
Military experts, with whom "Important Stories" talked, agree that the Russians have little chance of capturing Bakhmut. "Given the pace of the offensive in the Bakhmut direction, it is unlikely to work out in the coming weeks or even months," says Kirill Mikhailov, Analyst at the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT).
Military expert Yuri Fedorov believes that Russian troops can capture Bakhmut only in the same way as Severodonetsk - that is, completely destroying the city. "The Russians seem to have enough ammunition for this. But they will try to take [Bakhmut] at all costs," Fedorov notes.
Ukrainian military expert, Colonel Sergei Grabovsky told RBC-Ukraine that even if the fighters of PMC "Wagner" take Bakhmut, it will not give them anything: "Before going on the offensive, the enemy can hit the settlement for hours, weeks. After that, the enemy tries to move there. I'm not sure if they can take Bahmut soon, although technically they can capture him. But it will be a so-called Pyrrhic victory - when you have reached the goal, and you can't do anything else after that."
Why does the Russian army need Bakhmut?
On September 11, shortly after the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberated Izyum in the Kharkiv region, the Institute for the Study of War wrote that the capture of Bakhmut no longer matters much. This is due to the fact that the loss of Izyum and retreat in Kharkiv region made it impossible to achieve the main goal of the summer offensive of Russians - the liberation of the entire territory of the Donetsk region. "The offensive operations in the Bakhmut area and near Donetsk have lost operational importance for Moscow and only lead to losses in effective units, of which there are already very few," experts said.
CIT analyst Mikhailov also believes that there is no special point in capturing Bakhmut for the Russian military. "It will bring them closer to the complete capture of Donbass, but not much. In addition, now forces are needed to retain other front lines, where there is a threat of offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In my opinion, this is largely a personal war between Prigozhin and his PMC "Wagner"," Mikhailov notes.
Military expert Fedorov has a different opinion: "Bakhmut plays a big role in the defense system built by the Armed Forces of Ukraine after 2014. And if Bakhmut is taken, the entire defense system on the Donetsk front may be seriously weakened. And there will be a threat of a breakthrough of Russian troops into operational depths."
Taking Bakhmut can not only have a military goal. Alexander Musienko, Head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Research, believes that the Russian side needs at least some success. "They are somehow entrenched in this direction and can conduct some offensive actions from there. They stubbornly break through because they think it's something against the background of defeats and lack of victories. They want to present it as at least some kind of success," "Channel 24" quotes Musienko.
Ukrainian military expert, Colonel Roman Svitan notes that another task of the Russian army may be to go to the "conduit" behind Bakhmut to restore the water supply to Donetsk.
What are the losses of PMC Wagner
Military expert Fedorov says that the Russian side suffers heavy losses that can reach several thousand people. This is due to the fact that Bakhmut is "a heavily fortified city where half of the buildings can be turned into defense centers."
Advisor to the Office of the President of Ukraine Arestovich said that near Bakhmut Russians lose near the company every day: "We put them, according to the most modest, according to the most restrained estimates, somewhere in a company a day, really, of course, more. And there are new waves on the bodies of their fallen comrades. And the rod for one simple reason is there a double system of barrier detachments." The number of motorized rifle company of the Russian army is at least 100 people, the attack on Bakhmut began more than three months ago.
On October 16, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, speaking about the heavy battles near Bakhmut, said that prisoners who were sent to the front are fighting on the side of Russia: "The occupiers abandoned everyone they could against our forces, including two thousand convicts - they are among mercenaries there. And these are convicts with long sentences for serious crimes. They are held at the front not only by money, but also by the promise of amnesty." Fedorov confirms that prisoners are fighting in the Bakhmut direction. According to him, they play the role of penalty battalions, so among them are the greatest losses.
Ukrainian military expert Svitan, speaking about the Russian losses near Bakhmut, adds: "The largest density of enemy troops in the area of Bakhmut. This is important to us because it is easier to destroy them somewhere at one point. And just the biggest losses of Russian troops are near Bakhmut. They definitely won't be able to enter the city, but we will keep them there and destroy them to the last."
Report from Bakhmut
On October 22, the American edition of the Washington Post published a report from Bakhmut. Journalists write that the Russian army has superiority in numbers and weapons. The Ukrainian military, with whom the correspondents talked, confirm this.
Speaking about the big losses of PMC Wagner, Ukrainians note that people there are not spared. "They are used as disposable soldiers," says the commander of the artillery crew Vladimir. Another Ukrainian soldier adds that the Russians continue to attack, even when their positions are under fire.
At the same time, Ukrainians say that they themselves also suffer significant losses. Last week there was a moment when ambulances went to Ukrainian positions several times. One of the servicemen told how the Russians surrounded a group of Ukrainian military personnel and opened heavy fire. "There are not even pieces left of them," says the Washington Post interlocutor.
Journalists write that out of 70,000 people who lived in Bakhmut before the Russian invasion, about 15,000 remain now.
Detail
On October 1, Russian "journalist" Nadana Friedrichson posted a report on her YouTube channel about the offensive of PMC "Wagner" on Bakhmut. The description of the video says that Yevgeny Prigozhin's son, who allegedly appears in the film, is fighting near Bakhmut. The military who interview Friedrichson has closed faces, their names are not named.
So the Russians are fixated on a “victory” that would be symbolic but not worth much strategically? That doesn’t sound useful especially for a military that has had numerous setbacks and has strained resources.
Ukraine continues to take horrendous losses in both manpower and military hardware defending Bakhmut. It doesn’t seem to make sense.
Fixed/Corrected.
“ Institute for the Study of War”
In other words, Bill Krystol says…
Russia shells nuclear power plants it controls
It blows up its own pipelines
It will destroy dams to flood cities in its own annexed territories
It rounds up homeless people of the streets of Moscow, and sends them to the front line, armed with only screw-drivers and rusted rifles
Now its attacking cities that have absolute zero strategic value
So if you can believe these things in the fog and propaganda of war, you can be convinced to believe anything.
The attackers always take more casualties than the defenders in assaults against heavily fortified positions like Bahkmut. I suppose it’s the famed Russian fatalism that causes you and your compatriots to treat your own soldiers as cannon fodder and to treat their losses so casually.
I was told bahkmut was surronded by russians over a month ago by putards who claim their alt media sources speak the truth...goes to show their alt media is worse than msm
This article is total disinfo
If Bakhmut is so “ insignificant” why have the Ukes positioned tens of thousands of fodder to defend it? Five times the force they had at Mariupol.
The Russian and pro-Russian forces are working this battle slowly but steadily. Still an inferior force in numbers, not willing to risk casualties for short term gains when there is a bigger plan in play probably within weeks as mobilized troops take positions along the front.
The fall of Bakhmut will signal the defeat and probable destruction of thousands of UKA. And pretty much secure the Donetsk territory.
If you follow Military Summary channel on youtube or other platforms, you can see the RU pincer being formed while Uke troops in Bakhmut are ordered to “ no retreat” …..with barrier troops to shoot them if they try.
Bakhmut and Kherson are the 2 main focuses of Uke “ counteroffensives” that have been ordered to achieve some significant Uke “victory” by the US elections. Zelensky ruthlessly Feeding Ukrainians into meat grinders to try to influence US elections in favor of democrats.
Why Ukrainians still taking horrendous losses to both manpower and military hardware?
Does manpower and military hardware grow limitless on trees in Kyiv?
Drugs are good, are they not.
Maybe ask the clown who worships Bandera In Kyiv if throwing cannon-fodder against the wind is winning?
Irina Dolinina didn’t study much Clausewitz when she was failing her language degree...
ACTUALLY, Nickie, the RuZZian artillery is pummeling the Bakhmut Orkrainians into insensibility.
The Russians are taking less casualties than the Urk cannon fodder.
Don't confuse the Ukie shills with the facts, silverleaf. 
Piano Boy shills gonna shill.
Russian Derangement Syndrome makes one stupid.
I saw a map that showed the town has a cross road that links Russian controlled areas to the immediate right and left of the town and a road that goes easterly which is a supply route. Thus it still retains tactical value to the Russians even though the Ukrainians liberated Izyum. And as long as the Russians continue attacking they will probably suffer more casualties, than the Ukrianians.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/russia-ukraine-war/2022/10/22/id/1092965/
Hundreds of thousands of people in central and western Ukraine woke up on Saturday to power outages and periodic bursts of gunfire, as Ukrainian air defense tried to shoot down drones and incoming missiles.
Russia has intensified its strikes on power stations, water supply systems and other key infrastructure across the country, the latest phase of the war as it nears the eight-month mark.
Ukraine's air force said in a statement Saturday that Russia had launched “a massive missile attack" targeting “critical infrastructure,” hours after air raid sirens blared across the country. It said that it had downed 18 out of 33 cruise missiles launched from air and sea.
Will the fall of Bakhmut occur before or after much predicted capture of Odessa? Weren’t both events supposed to have occurred months ago?
LOL
just propaganda
try harder troll
I think taking Odessa ( if that was really a serious plan) got moved down the timeline until Gen Armageddon decides on the plan for Kherson and Zaprorozhye district
Remember original aims of the SMO were Donetsk, Luhansk, and securing Crimea. And demilitarization of any military or political ( Bandera nazi nationalist) threats to Russian people.
Some reports indicate there may be internal RU debate about the mission expansion…pro and con. Zaporozhye and Kherson developed as add-on buffers. Meanwhile Donetsk is still being shelled after 8 months.
Given the behavior of Ukraine, NATO, the US and UK…” demilitarization” has become a much larger and more complex goal
Obviously after the evacuation of Kherson, and the battle it’s going to take RU to defeat a “ counteroffensive” force of up to 30,000 kamikaze Ukes ( which is almost certainly required to move UKR and its overlords to negotiations) ….moving further west is going to take a major Russian force commitment ….if they decide it is necessary for their security interests
They are pounding Odessa and Nikolaev now to stop resupply and reinforcement of the Ukes in the east…not to prep for a further Russian move to the west
Imho
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