Posted on 10/03/2022 3:08:33 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Ukrainian Artillery losses Running Total: 109
RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1242
October 2022 - 31
September 2022 - 217
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 318
October 2022 - 3
September 2022 - 73
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
Will post ‘war updates’ later today.
October’s tank attrition is off to a blazing start, I see. Maybe the Ukrainians to score 300 this month.
I get that there is disinformation out there but all information out there is not totally false. So what are your rock solid go to places for the truth. What I see is the Russians have been “tactically withdrawing “ from territorial gains they made earlier, equipment losses appear substantial, their overwhelming advantage in aircraft does not seem to have resulted in air supremacy, their overwhelming advantage in arty seems to have become less of a factor. Things like mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops when they had a military substantially larger than Ukrainians and staging referendums at this point in the operation are not signs of success or “winning”
Good morning Speedy
Up early today 😀
Appreciate you maintaining this thread
The glorious Russian soldiers are not withdrawing, but making a good will gesture to the vile Ukrainians who are all in the pocket of various nefarious wealthy and powerful people who force them to fight against their wills.
The best, the most truthful, the most honest, the most impartial, the most insightful sources for what is really happening are Moon over Alabama, Tass, Izvestia, any source that has the .ru extension - as well as various Russian Telegram and Twitter accounts.
Do not believe those supporters of the wealth and powerful on FR that tell you the Russian army actually had fewer professional troops that Ukraine at the start; that the advanced missiles were mostly duds; that there was little to no maintenance done of equipment after leaving the factory, that the Russian officer corp steals most of the funds allocated; that someone stole 1.5 million military uniforms; that the glorious air force was mostly obsolete and used as artillery; that Combined Arms in the Russian military is something that happens went the troops dance in celebration of new shipments of vodka, and stuff like that.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Oct 2, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
Situation for Russian troops quickly turning into catastrophic.
Ukrainian troops re-launched its offensive on Kherson bridgehead, and advanced from area north of Zolota Balka to Dudchany (included) in one day.
Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
Russian troops attempting to rebuild frontline, but it does not looks that they will succeed.
Ukrainian troops advanced from Kupyansk on the road to Svatove, and were stopped near village Kuzemka.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead:
Ukrainian troops launched attack from area north of Zolota Balka early in the morning and quickly advanced about 20km to the south gaining control of village Dudchany.
Ukrainian troops were not stopped, Russian retreat looks like disorderly collapse of the frontline.
Ukrainian units have real chance of getting to Nova Kakhovka in few days.
———————————————————————————————————————
••In a summary what’s going on: we’re probably on the verge of a total outright collapse of the Russian front line in Ukraine; its definitely falling apart as we we’ve seen in North Luhansk’ area. Now its totally collapsing on the Kherson bridgehead, which we’ve been saying since the beginning, this this is done deal; Russia will lose this bridgehead on the western side of Dnipro River.
North Luhansk’
There is another breakthrough by Ukrainian troops, and they are on the move towards Svatove. There is a small Russian unit of militarized police is encircled in Kysilvka. The Russian intermediate defensive positions are in Kuzemivka. The main one is going to be Svatove; that’s going to be a large stronghold. Russian troops will try to establish a new front line along this road that goes from Kupiansk to Kreminna and including Svatove and moving up north. What is unclear is what’s going on in the Borova area with all of the troops moving and retreating moving to Svatove; we don’t have confirmation of what’s going on in this area.
Its a pretty logical move, given that Ukrainian troops are already near Kuzemivka. So far it doesn’t look like Russian troops will be able to establish new frontline along the line going up from North, the State border to Svatove and to Kreminna.
This is going to be another intermediate front line that probably will be lost in probably 10-20 days, could be up to a month. The only thing that can significantly change the situation is a large number of motivated Russian reservists. If that does not happen, it will be a slow motion collapse of the Russian front here in North Luhansk’.
This is temporary front line. Ukrainian troops are still moving towards Kreminna. Russian troops are already digging in at Kreminna. That’s going to be large stronghold stronghold and Ukrainian troops are on the move and relatively slowly. The focus is going to be on the southern section of the North Luhansk’ section of the front line where Ukrainian troops are probably going to be moving.
The bigger danger is what’s gonna happen on the most southern section; most likely Ukrainian troops probably will try to attack slightly North of Kreminna and move between Svatove and Kreminna. That really opens up huge opportunities because they can turn south or southeast which will create tremendous problems for the Russian frontline, including the Wagner mercenaries who are potentially pulling themselves into larger problems down the road. For now its not apparent to the Russian troops.
Its gonna be a move probably towards southeast & Serverodonetsk, and then also probably a move straight towards Starobil’s’k because at this point Starobil’s’k is the hub. Svatove its not a hub, its just stronghold or defensive position, nothing more than that. At this point Starobil’s’k is the hub of Russians supply for all of the troops in this whole area including around the Bakhmut area.
Ukrainian troops could cut this really critical supply line for Russian troops. The Russians can use the Russian north south road M-4 that goes parallel to Ukrainian State border. That will be an additional drive around on secondary roads, creating a higher demand for trucks, trains, everything; that’s gonna create another strain in Russian troops in this whole area.
I think the most opportunistic move for the Ukrainian side is going behind Kreminna-Rubizhna-Serverodonetsk and moving towards almost towards Luhansk’ and trying to cross the river there. That’s gonna create a complete collapse collapse of the Russian frontline. This is with the assumption is Russian reservists are not coming within next 15-30 days and they not motivated.
The two points are: when do they come, and then how motivated they? Will there be any motivated reservists units? That’s the question, because the sheer number of Russian reservists mobilized guarantees that some percentage will be.
The second question that flows from that is: will Russian command be able to effectively use those motivated troops? That’s another huge question, because, so far it doesn’t look like the Russian command was using resources effectively. To be fair, Ukrainian is is not much better. I would say the stars aligned for Ukraine to succeed right now.
The next main move is probably going to be attacking in a south easterly direction and then a supporting move towards Starobil’s’k. Also a move northeast of Svatove almost encircling Svatove, allowing the liberation of Svatove without really much fighting.
Russian troops clearly don’t have enough manpower to defend the line along the road, so they already preparing fall back positions in Rubizhne. Kreminna-Rubizhna-Serverodonetsk is a contiguous urban area plus Luhansk’ on the western side of the Seversky Donets Rivers; this is one big agglomeration as it is called in Ukraine.
Central Donbas:
I just want to clarify what this means is 42nd D+Bt “East”+ “West”. This is an add-on unit that was added for the 42nd Division; they are the so called Kaderov of troops. The the head of Chechnya is Kaderov, and he has his pocket army on the way. (Edit: about 200 troops with even less experience than the last bunch the UA wiped out.) He threw in a couple of “battalions” to support this 42nd Division. I’m really unclear what the point is; opportunities here pretty much non-existent.
Kherson bridgehead:
There are new developments and important developments. Ukrainian troops managed to liberate the whole area from Zolata Balka to Dudchany in a matter of a day. Even right now Russia troops somewhere south of Dudchany village, and this is not defensive position it. Night came in Ukrainian troops had to stop or decided to stop the advance. They don’t have skills to fight in the night time.
Part of the reason why the front line collapsed here so quickly was because the 217th, 331st / 98th Airborne Division was pulled out for refitting purposes and replaced by the 80th Brigade which only has two regular battalions and one reconnaissance battalion. Its not even a brigade; its more like a regiment, even a weak regimen type of unit.
Its definitely an extremely weak unit, and its was not able to withstand the pressure of Ukrainian troops, we don’t have exact information. Probably the 128th Brigade could be here and any of these brigades that are main striking force: 46th, 35th NB, 36th NB, and 128th. They could be on the northern section with the 42nd/57th, 60th, 108th as well; there is not enough information at this point to to fully understand what the compositional attacking Ukrainian forces are here.
Russian troops (126th & 80th) really started fleeing in panic because when the advance started the UA moved roughly 20 kilometers in one day and they could not manage to really stop Ukrainian troops who only stopped because it was night. Ukrainian troops stopped in Dudchany which they liberated and so we’ll see what happens tomorrow morning.
Russian command is probably desperately bringing one of this airborne regiments here or this 76th Division, but this is extremely dangerous situation. This could potentially lead to quick advance to Nova Kakhovka or the area; not to mention that this whole north central area is already a salient.
This is creates an extremely uncomfortable position for Russian troop, especially if they are outnumbered by Ukrainian troops from all angles. Its almost guaranteed that this whole area of the salient will be lost in relatively short order. If Russian troops manage to stop Ukrainian troops, its probably going to be at Mylove or Novorais’k alomng the river falling into Dnipro River. That may stabilize there or, otherwise, its going to collapse, and Ukrainian troops will manage to get to Nova Kakhovka area.
when the ukes take Kherson and secure the whole west bank of the dneiper—they will not need to leave more than a couple troops on the west side of the dneiper. the distance of that land from russia and the dneiper river make it too hard for the russians to return any time soon.
on the other hand the uke lands next to the russian border in the northeast are snug up agains the russian border. the russians can be driven out and then come back a year later with 100,000 troops. Ukes can defend against them but it will take up all their resources. further once they take those lands they will need a lot of troops to hold those lands.
My point? take the lands far from the russian border first. they’re easier to defend once captured. the uke troops there can be then redeployed.
it looks like the ukes have 30k troops west of the dneiper. that’s a lot of troops.
that breakthrough of uke troops to the north of Kherson suggests that the ukes have learned how to properly coordinate all their pieces —air land armor intelligence—into a coordinated package. further they’re propagating best practices all along the front.
this means they’re on a continual learning routine. that’s the way wars are won.
Putin has relived General Alexandr Zhuravlev, the commander of the Western Military District of Russia, as the consequence of military failures in Kharkiv. Zhuravlev will be replaced by Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov. (https://english.nv.ua/nation/russian-commander-of-the-western-military-district-removed-for-failures-at-front-50273985.html )
“As the war continues, the UAF are getting increasingly modern and capable, introducing XXI-century tools to improve their battlefield performance. Russia is moving the other way, with its firefighting capability increasingly in reverse, towards 1970/80s-type warfare.”
https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1576886028841160704
“Girkin claims Russian authorities ordered Svatove to evacuate within 72h”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1576993698914611200
Humor amid death
“Family values, which Putin loves to repeat so much, have failed But the APU fixed it.”
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1576964116480393216
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