RuZZian Tank losses RunningTotal: 1192
September 2022 - 198
August 2022 – 74
July 2022 – 108
June 2022 – 67
May 2022 – 148
April 2022 – 243
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 350
RuZZian Artillery losses Running Total: 306
September 2022 - 64
August 2022 – 21
July 2022 – 21
June 2022 – 18
May 2022 – 20
April 2022 – 52
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110
“Video of a Russian man opening fire and killing the military commandant in a draft centre in the city of Úst-Ilimsk in Irkutsk region. The military commandant was the head of the local draft committee. He has died, according to reports.”
“Some reports from local Irkutsk media that the commandant is still alive. This is video of him being carried to a stretcher.”
“Audio from a @BaikalPeople witness at the shooting of the military commandant: official gathered those being drafted, “started explaining everything clumsily, some guy walked out of line and said ‘nobody’s going anywhere.’ And then I heard 3 shots.””
“Video of the purported shooter. 25-year-old local who was reportedly extremely agitated after his best friend got called up to army. He had not received his call-up papers. He had told his mother this morning he was going to draft center to volunteer, reports АSTRA.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xoajqq/video_of_a_russian_man_opening_fire_and_killing/
https://twitter.com/andrew__roth/status/1574272320071426049
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574277672326369281
https://twitter.com/Andrew__Roth/status/1574290436482830337
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 25, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
Ukraine Situation Report: Multiple Russian Aircraft Shot Down In A Day
The Russian Air Force had another bad day in the skies over Ukraine as Kyiv claims it downed four jets, drones, and a cruise missile.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-multiple-russian-aircraft-shot-down-in-a-day
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
Ukrainian forces liberated village Nove on their advance towards Svatove.
Key areas:
- Oskil River area:
Ukrainian troops are inflicting severe losses on the remnants of the Russian 144 Division that are attempting to delay Ukrainian advance.
Ukrainian forces liberated village Nove.
- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhya: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
———————————————————————————————————————
••Oil & Economic Policy:
It looks like India decided not to buy Russian oil for remainder of September and probably depending on the conditions, probably also in the future.
This means is that Russian oil is not competitive enough, and the discount is not big enough for for Indian refiners to make it enticing to buy. The reason for that is the increases in interest rates. The US Federal Reserve just hiked the interest rate to about 3.25% and not really sending interest rates in the other central banks doing similar things.
This is creating global squeeze of all sorts of commodities; its killing of demand. I spoke about this sometime in July, June, that the West is facing a problem of less supply because of the misguided internal economic and energy policies.
Then there’s also this embargo on Russia, that reduces supply significantly. The wise thing is not to reduce supply, but actually increase supply. What’s been decided is to do the easy thing and reduce demand; the way to do it is just increase interest rates which destroys demand.
Everything is priced off interest rates, so when interest rates go up, all assets go down, and including, for example, in US the housing market started to show initial signs of collapse. The same is going on for global commodities; demand is starting to diminish. This is the biggest problem for Russian leadership, for Russian economy because this is what Soviet Union was facing in 80’s.
In part it was significant contributor to its collapse, the fallowing energy prices in the 80’s and the the reason for that was is that in the U.S Paul Volker was increasing interest rates, I think it was as high as 16% or 20% in order to tame inflation in the US. As a result, it sent all of the commodities into a lot of pain, cutting off supply of foreign currency to the Soviet government, which then created domino effect.
This might be a similar situation, except the problem is going to create a lot of pain in the western world and, unlike the times of Volker where the indebtedness of the consumers and companies was reasonable, now everybody is over-leveraged to the maximum. It means extremely high debt load on the whole system and on the government, on the company level, on individual level which guarantees the maximum level of pain when interest rates are going going up at the same time.
The first signs of interest rates going up is the drop-off of India buying of the crude from from Russia.
In addition related economy-wise related to the Russian mobilization, everybody’s gonna get similar pay to what Russian contract soldiers get.
That really puts huge dent in the Russian budget because that’s going to be extremely expensive.
Its already a deficit budget to this point, which I said before Russia used to have a profitable budget meaning there is a surplus and now it turned into into deficit which means it spends more than it earns on a state budget level, creating deteriorating State finances. That will trickle down through through entire economy through the exchange rate of Russian Ruble.
Muddy Season:
An International MaxxPro truck that got stuck in the mud; they are designed to deal with difficult road conditions, but the level of difficulty was underestimated by the engineers.
This is going to be happening much more, and I suspect that those Caesar self-propelled howitzer will suffer similar problems, those Susanas from Slovakia, everything that’s not tracked, are going to have a lot of problems.
However, even tracked vehicles have problems and Soviet engineers after World War II decided to narrow the width of the tracks, for whatever reason, that created problems because all of these tanks don’t have the same ability to get through the same muddy ground as their Soviet World War II tanks, and specifically T-34.
T-72, T-80, T-90:
However even with this Soviet tanks T-64, T-72, T-80, T-90, there is a significant difference.
On a T-64 with wheels and the tracks and a T-72, but similar to the T-80. Its the same kind of stuff as the T90. T The bigger problem is actually with T-72, which is what Russian army employs in large numbers, the T-80 and then T-90. The problem is the road wheels have rubber and they’re way too wide, they’re extremely wide. The tracks are ideal for the mud to stick because there are no holes.
There’s nothing, just plain perfect flat surface; with the sand it works, but with with clay, which is in the Donbas region its kind of predominant type of soil; in Kharkiv region with its black soil which is similar to clay, but in many ways even worse. The mud gets stuck on the tracks and, eventually, you have so much of this mud the wheels get stuck.
You can potentially lose the whole track or you just get stuck because this wheels are too wide; they don’t self-clean because the pressure from each wheel is not high enough, and its so wide that its just putting one layer of of clay on on over another.
T-64:
The reason that T-64 is better is because the wheels are much narrower, and the wheel itself is split into 2 extremely narrow pieces, so the pressure from each a half piece is much higher, like a knife many ways and also the track itself is not just like a flat surface, it has some holes and its curved so it allows self-cleaning. The ability to get through the mud for T-64 is actually much better much higher than T-72 T-80 and T-90.
Ukraine is using T-64 primarily, but recently Ukraine has been been losing many of the T-64s. It started to get T-72s from Poland & from other countries in in Eastern Europe, wherever they can get them. The point is that T-64 much better suited for this kind of this terrain, these road conditions, the climate conditions. T-64s used to be produced in Ukraine in Kharkiv. The plant has been mostly destroyed by Russian rocket strikes The T-72 is being produced in a little bit north in Russian Ural mountains.
Hopefully this helps people to understand on the situation on the ground better.
Logistics & Supply:
News from yesterday or even Friday, Putin fired the head General who is responsible for supplying Russian army with everything, equipment, logistics, and supply. He was in charge of logistics and supply, he was 70 year old and everybody was cursing him as he’s totally inept and as a professional he couldn’t do the job.
He become a scapegoat. so this there is a new person that his name is General Mikhail Mizintsev; he’s a little bit younger at 60, still probably too old for really changing the situation. There are some changes in the Russian military top and they are marginally in the right direction.
Protests & Ethnicity:
There were also some protests in some regions of Russia against mobilization, specifically in not non-core Russian regions; it needs to be understood that Russia is a multi-ethnic society; its not like when people say Russians, like people would say Americans. People in America & Canadians they come from different ethnic backgrounds, so this is just a generic name for all different ethnic groups (Edit: Blacks. Indians, Hindus, Mexicans, etc).
In Russia with those ethnic groups its very different from Canada or the US. Those ethnic groups live on their territories for the past 1000-2000 years. They have their own language, and they not looking towards relinquishing that right.
There’s some levels of operation throughout the Russian history there is always been heavy pressure, heavy oppression, sometimes genocide to Russify those territories which are conquered territories; that’s why they speak different languages, not because they came to Russian territories, they were conquered by Russians in the past 500 years of the Russian history.
Here’s the difference: where there’s a high number of Russian ethnic people, there’s no problem with mobilization, but in the regions where there are non-Russian ethnic groups, there are problems with the mobilization.
It does still look like that process goes on let’s put this way if that whatever the goal is going to be 300,000-500,000, a million, 1.5 million - that goal will be reached. To what the level they are motivated, we will find out on the battlefield relatively soon, because the situation is so desperate for the Russian Command right now in Ukraine.
I have very big doubt they will get much of the training technically promised to them, they’re gonna get a bunch of training, but the whole idea of how it was envisioned was to the get already trained soldiers who served in the army who had signed contracts.
But because the Russian drafting system is so dysfunctional, doesn’t work well; its kind of like a random number generator, to the extent the whole process gets messed up. and at least a significant portion of these people will probably never see anything military-wise. They may end up without much training on the battlefield, and we’ll see what it means because this is a large number, and regardless of the quality, large numbers are still important and still matter.
North Luhansk’:
This is where the Russian forces may experience the process of looming disaster, and really depends on the Ukrainian side, if its able to actually fully exploit this weakness.
Ukraine forces moved even further towards east and liberated the of village Nove. Russian sources are saying is that defensive position here manned by the leftovers of the 144th D (488th/254th). The information is they are being destroyed by Ukrainian forces, sacrificing themselves to delay the advance of Ukrainian forces. There are units of the 3rd Mechanized Division (752nd) operating in the area and also Bar 13 and 16, but they are sitting in Lyman.
Ukrainian troops liberated the village of Nove. The most logical path is to gain more than just squeezing out of Lyman but move north,
This is kind of like a slow motion disaster happening here. I just want to confirm the information that Russian troops are in control of the Drobysheve is correct. Also turns out that this 201st Military Camp is also operating here, so these units are not on the front line. Russian command formed battle groups from the 21st military Camp, 3rd Mechanized Division and 144th Division leftovers because, if they’re in full strength, Ukrainian troops would not be able to attack. They are only a shadow of themselves.
On 23rd there was big progress, on 24th and on the 25th because there’s pretty tiny progress with the liberation of the village Nove, at the same, probably there was more movement.
Unfortunately, I don’t have enough information or confirmation to to say exactly their locations, I do suspect there is more there, but whole point is the whole North Luhansk’ front line is collapsing, and its pretty much guaranteed that Ukrainian troops should be able to liberate Svatove - at least before the arrival of the mobilized troops.
I think it goes fairly slow, Ukrainian troops will not be able to by will be will not be able to reach Starobis’k or liberate Starobis’k, and also get into this Rubizne area. I believe Russian command will start throwing all of the mobilized troops somewhere, and even if they are not super prepared, don’t have advanced weapons, or enough of them, just the sheer a number of them, will be enough to slow down Ukrainian advances, at least for some time.
Northern Donbas:
There’s no changes: Ukraine troops are trying to advance east. Russian Wagner mercenaries are counter-attacking west.
Central Donbas:
Just typical Russian attacks; there was exchange of attack: Ukrainian troops attacked here out of Pisky and then Russian troops countered.
This is an example of the disastrous approach of Ukrainian command to attacks, because this is an area where Russian troops have artillery - its prepared, they know coordinates for all the main points; they can quickly react and inflict severe damage to Ukrainian attacking forces.
Based on the failure of these attacks, there was no counter battery fire, there’s no reconnaissance, that’s all typical just move and hope and pray that everything is going to be okay - and it wasn’t okay.
Kherson:
Here things not really quiet, there are some small snail-paced attacks and attempts to move; they are very painful for Ukrainian side, & probably painful to Russian side.
No real breaches, no real advances. Ukrainian basically command is still focusing on destroying remaining supply routes over the Dnipro River targeting ferries, pontoon bridges; this is going to be death by thousand cuts.
Ukrainian Tank losses Running Total: 267
Ukrainian Artillery losses Running Total: 107
CIA/MI6 fronts ORYX and Bellingcat are steadily busy popping out their propaganda materials, as par.
Only 267 Ukrainian tanks destroyed?
Only 107 pieces of Ukrainian artillery destroyed?
Riddle me this CIA/MI6 front ORYX, if those losses are accurate, which they highly are not, why oh why is ZelenskyyIdiot incessantly demanding and begging the US/Germany/UK/EU/NATO for more and more tanks, planes, artillery assets, and military hardware in general?
According to various reports,
“...the Ukrainian army had around 2,550 tanks (including light tanks and main battle tanks) before the war....”
https://eurasiantimes.com/ukraines-now-boasts-more-tanks-than-pre-war-times-figure/
Do the math.
Roughly 2550 tanks - 267 tanks destroyed or put out of action = 2293 tanks remaining.
Roughly 2293 tanks not enough.
According to you propaganda peddlers, Ukrainians were beating the living sh*t out the Russians and about push them back to the very gates of the Kremlin.
Hello, 2293 tanks NOT ENOUGH?
Again, if Ukrainian tank losses are as reported factual, why is ZelenskyIdiot demanding and begging for more tanks, lanes, billions in money, artillery assets, military hardware period, etc., etc., etc., etc.?!?
The Ukrainian government does not usually disclose casualty figures, but the soldiers and commanders interviewed in the past week portrayed the battlefield losses as “high” and “massive.” They described large offensives in which columns of Ukrainian tanks and armored vehicles tried to cross open fields only to be pounded mercilessly by Russian artillery and blown up by Russian mines.
One Ukrainian soldier, speaking anonymously because he was not authorized to publicly discuss casualties, said that during a recent assault, “we lost 50 guys in two hours.” In another place, said the soldier, who works closely with different frontline units, “hundreds” of Ukrainian troops were killed or wounded while trying to take a single village, which is still in Russian hands.
‘Russia Counterblow, NYT Admits Ukraine Massive Losses in Stalled Offensive; UK Teeters on The Brink’
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjkOTAPqwj8
Ukraine has actually captured more functional Russian tanks than they’ve had destroyed/damaged/captured by Russia.