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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 15, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••denotes transcribed dialogue.

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Extras:
Ukraine Situation Report: Top U.S. Marine Praises Battlefield Lessons Learned
Ukraine’s military successes bode well for Commandant David Berger’s new vision for the U.S. Marine Corps.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-top-u-s-marine-praises-battlefield-lessons-learned

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Summary:
No major moves or changes.

Key areas:
- Oskil river area:
Ukrainian forces liberated villages Studenok and Sosnove on the eastern bank of Siversky Donets river.
No major effort to liberate Lyman.

- North Donbass area: no changes.
- Central Donbass (Donetsk West): no changes.
- Zaporizhy: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: no changes.

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••Military Situation:
Not much going on on the front lines today, its relatively quiet - that doesn’t mean that things are dying off, it just means that both sides are preparing for the next series of strikes against each other.

The most important part is there was quite a bit of Ukrainian activity on Russian-Ukrainian border here including there was attack at the village of Valuki, Russia, as a result the Ukrainian side destroyed transformers; so there was no electricity in that region. This means that the war is spilling over from Ukrainian borders into neighboring areas of Russia in a more and more in pronounced way.

The stretch of the 10 kilometer buffer on on the Russian side will be abandoned by civilians, and will be a no man’s land, will be no civilians, only the Russian military; there is a clear trend in this way.

There was quite a bit of activity along the borderline; at the same time on the front lines on the Russian side, there’s pretty much close to zero activity especially comparing it to the past; the only area where the Russian command is still doing something is the area controlled by Wagner mercenaries.

They’re still trying to attack, trying to move forward; that’s the only active part of the Russian military. There were some activities in the morning right next to Pisky but that is also dying off and Russian military is truly switching to strategic defensive activities.

The Russians are totally outnumbered by Ukrainian military, and generally, it is just a question of time before they’re gonna get squeezed out of Ukraine. The only other unknown in all of this, is will there be any encirclement of the Russian troops in the process.

The highest probability candidate is this Kherson Bridgehead. This is where encirclement of Russian troops is extremely realistic scenario, otherwise as was proven by the offensive in Kup’yars’k and Izyum, the ability of modern ability of troops to move and escape from from the circle, and this is extremely high, especially if higher command does not want that to happen or they are not preparing to sacrifice those troops to keep the front line where it is; it seems that the Russian command is not stubborn and somewhat flexible in this in this respect.

But so far the Russians were pretty flexible, including they were willing to lose not all of them, but significant amount of the equipment to save people, so that they have another chance to fight in the future, which was the correct strategy for the Russian side.

Russian Economy & Energy Export, a really long Discussion (Skipped)

North Luhansk:
No activity by Ukrainian forces to continue movement; the situation here with bridgehead is strange in many ways: Ukrainian troops are slowly increasing this bridgehead here

What we know that Ukraine interests managed to squeeze Russian forces out of a village, so they still are not out of the forested area, which is the main immediate goal. Once they out of this forested area, there is an opportunity to do a large breakthrough and advance. Nevertheless, we don’t see significant and strong effort to get out out of this forested area on the bridgehead.

There was some relatively weak attacks against Lyman, but nothing really major. Russian troops here are weak; they’re still weak they still feel a number they’re still extremely poor on heavy equipment.

There’s still opportunity, but for whatever reason, the Ukrainian command is not taking advantage of that opportunity, and by the way, all of these units here are still gaining control of this liberated territory, going into all of the villages and putting the Ukrainian Administration there, so that might be the reason why its still delayed, but still its not good excuse.

North Donbas:
Most of the activity of the Russian troops in this area are still trying to attack Solidar still trying to attack Bakhmod; hey’re still trying to squeeze Ukrainian troops.

Southern North Donbas:
Manned by Wagner mercenaries who just keep going, they don’t stop - at this is at this point its a futile activity, but nevertheless, they do it.

Central Donbas:
Things here are dying off on the Russian side - there were some extremely weak probing attacks.

out of this Salient and Taurus but it was all extremely weak and to the point that its like even like stretching it to say that there was any major activity there let’s just keep going let’s see what’s going on on the

Zaporizhzhia:
No new reports about Russian side about Ukrainian commanders accumulating troops in Vugladar, so remains to be seen where the strike is gonna happen.

Kherson Bridgehead:
Russian forces fired another round of rocket strikes, and they hit again this dam.

There’s large artificial lake with a hydropower generation station. They hit that dam again to increase the flow of the water into Inhulets, and apparently there is another dam somewhere up north in the Kryvyi Rih region; they hit that dam as well; that water flows into Inhulets River to increase the level of the water even further on the Inhulets, in order to stop the advances of Ukrainian troops on Kherson bridgehead.

It creates difficulties, there’s no question, but it doesn’t prevent Ukrainian troops from being resupplied from the eastern side of Inhulets river; everything is still working; the machine is still working - it didn’t change anything, but it created some difficulties.

Russian side is also experiencing extreme difficulties in resupplying their troops: there is definitely lack of artillery support of the Russian troops and, since they are outnumbered, they are on the defensive, being pushed.

There are even reports that Ukrainian commando units are infiltrating because there is no perfect a contiguous front line here; that they are even getting as far as Charvine. This is almost halfway to ultimate goal of the dam near Noah Kakhovka.

Things are getting worse by the day for the Russian forces; they’re still holding on and largely thanks to the two Airborne divisions and a special forces brigade. Without at least one of those, this whole thing probably would’ve already collapsed by now.