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More on Alaska Senate-- why Lisa is more likely to lose than win (link only)

Posted on 09/16/2022 5:43:04 AM PDT by cotton1706

Reddit is not allowed on FreeRepublic, for good reason.

However, the analysis in the link below is interesting.


TOPICS: Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: elections

1 posted on 09/16/2022 5:43:04 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

https://www.reddit.com/r/YAPms/comments/xf5fcb/more_on_alaska_senate_why_lisa_is_more_likely_to/


2 posted on 09/16/2022 5:43:20 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

I “read it”. That sub is really just a lot of wishful thinking on the part of a bunch of Leftists.

Not saying that mur Kow ski won’t pull it off, but that’s because of rank (not ranked) voting.

Still hoping Kelly pulls it off!


3 posted on 09/16/2022 6:02:44 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Rush, we're missing your take on all of this!)
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To: cotton1706

Per the article”

“Since Chesbro got under seven points, it’s safe to say that about a third of the voters in the race were Democrats for Lisa.

Which leaves about 12% of the voters Republicans for Lisa.”

That means that if the REPUBLICANS CAST THEIR SECOND VOTE FOR THE democrat, that Murkowski may be pushed out by the Democrat and be a runoff with the Dem rather than Murkowski.


4 posted on 09/16/2022 6:10:46 AM PDT by tired&retired (Blessings )
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To: cotton1706

This ranked choice crap makes politics more of a game than it ever has before. All these schemes and plots and ways to work the system are all crap. I hate it.


5 posted on 09/16/2022 6:14:13 AM PDT by vpintheak (Live free, or die!)
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To: tired&retired

“That means that if the REPUBLICANS CAST THEIR SECOND VOTE FOR THE democrat, that Murkowski may be pushed out by the Democrat and be a runoff with the Dem rather than Murkowski.”

By runoff I assume you mean third round. You are correct.

Those that want to be rid of Murkowski at all costs could choose the Democrat as their second choice and force her to be eliminated after the second round. Incumbent defeated!

She is such an odious creature I want her gone one way or the other.


6 posted on 09/16/2022 6:15:36 AM PDT by cotton1706
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To: cotton1706

Exactly. We cannot make progress against the Democrats until all RINOs are purged.


7 posted on 09/16/2022 6:16:22 AM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: All
1-E1-F4-C2-C-D1-D0-45-EC-A29-A-EFD97-ADB35-AB

AF435690-3881-4826-91-B5-081-D81-F5-CE49


Mitch says you must re-elect Murkowski


8 posted on 09/16/2022 6:23:26 AM PDT by AnthonySoprano (Statute of Limitations is going to elapse on Hunter Biden )
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Comment #9 Removed by Moderator

To: cotton1706

They have ranked choice voting. Lisa is pretty rank. She could win.


10 posted on 09/16/2022 7:10:46 AM PDT by Cincinnatus.45-70 (What do DemocRats enjoy more than a truckload of dead babies? Unloading them with a pitchfork!)
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To: tired&retired

What if you don’t cast a second vote?

To my way of thinking, that second vote just splits it and dilutes your vote, giving half to your second choice. Wouldn’t it be better to just vote for one and ignore the ranked choosing?

I plan to cast one vote for Kelly Tshibaka, as I did in the Primary, and ignore the other candidates.


11 posted on 09/16/2022 7:46:38 AM PDT by Chuckster (Friends don't let friends eat farmed fish)
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To: cotton1706

She got 45% to 39%, Democrats are not going to vote for the Tshibaka as their second choice. Unless something major occurs, it is difficult to see how she loses.


12 posted on 09/16/2022 7:59:39 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: vpintheak

It is the Murkowski Protection Act.

Later shown her staff was behind the push to pass it - that was no surprise.


13 posted on 09/16/2022 8:01:12 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: tired&retired

Not likely - the second vote doesn’t count until the candidate is eliminated. If Tshibaka is in second place, her second choice votes don’t matter. That’s how the Dem won the House seat. Virtually all of Palin’s second choice votes went to the other Republican, but she was in second place, so those votes were never counted.


14 posted on 09/16/2022 8:03:22 AM PDT by Republican Wildcat
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To: vpintheak

There are a few articles on the web that delve into how to ‘arrange’ a win in a RCV election. Most of the strategies that would seem to doom the R candidate involve having more than R candidate on the ballot while the Ds have only one. If your R candidate doesn’t get 50% + 1 of the votes outright then there is a good chance that the rules governing over-votes, under-votes, and exhausted ballots, etc could result in your ballot being discarded. This is how Palin was defeated in Alaska. There was two Rs on the ballot and only one D. The split vote plus the discards gave the D the win.

The Ds have already been working this system by funding liberals to run as Rs.


15 posted on 09/16/2022 9:11:12 AM PDT by ByteMercenary (Slo-Joe and KamalHo are not my leaders.)
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To: ByteMercenary

Correct. And frankly there are enough people that hate Trump and anyone he endorses that Palin isn’t going to win. We’re gonna get stuck with “the first native Alaskan” token lefty for 2 years because of it.


16 posted on 09/16/2022 10:03:40 AM PDT by vpintheak (Live free, or die!)
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