he Ukrainians and NATO know that most of the ground war is being fought by Donbas militias, but do not want to inform the public of that because it undercuts their propaganda campaign to make this “invasion” all about Russia.
We also know that Russia is much better at deception than Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine did nothing to hide its intent to launch an attack in the Kherson region and also signaled it would attack around Kharkov. Russia? Helped the Donbas militias reinforce their forces around Kherson (and successfully beat back the Ukrainian attack causing massive Ukrainian losses). Russia also leaked information that it was sending huge armor and artillery reinforcements towards Kherson as that offensive got underway when, in reality, it organized a tactical withdrawal from the region and redeployed forces south to Donetsk.
There is one more salient fact–the Ukrainian offensive around Kharkov took place without any meaningful support from Ukrainian combat air or artillery. Why is that important? That means the Russian air force–both fixed wing and rotary wing–is unscathed and intact. Russian armor and artillery systems also were not destroyed. If they ain’t destroyed they can still fight and the Ukrainian troops do not have a large reserve of armor and artillery to protect them.
Ukraine and the western media blithely ignore this fact and are celebrating the limited Ukrainian advance as if it were the reincarnation of the Nazi blitzkrieg into France.
One final fact to take into account. Ukraine has incurred horrendous casualties over the last two and a half weeks of combat. Russia and the militias have far fewer losses. Russia has not tapped into its trained military reserve. Ukraine has no trained military reserve left. So, for all of you arm chair generals out there second guessing Russia’s command decisions, please explain how Ukraine comes out on top? I look forward to your answers.
[1943]
“Zhukov countered that the Germans would be drawn into a trap where their armoured power would be destroyed, thus creating the conditions for a major Soviet counteroffensive”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kursk
The Ukrainians are advancing in areas across a river.
If the Russians take out the bridges, the Ukrainian troops may have their supply lines cut.
The Russians seem to be giving up territory too easily.
The Soviets moved people around forcibly to justify expansion of Soviet borders during and after WWII. It would not be surprising if Putin is moving pro-Russian folks to settle in the most coveted regions like the Donbas. The Russian economy doesn’t produce housing for refugees happily.
I just want to say, I have absolutely no idea what the facts are.
Are the reports of Ukraine winning victories true? Maybe, but the people telling me this have openly reported many chains of untrue information in the past without consequence. They don’t care, that they have or I know that they have.
Is Russia invincible with Ukraine fighting “outside their weight class” and is backing off for strategic reasons... Maybe.. but it all sounds a bit like “Trust Putin’s Plan” as well. And again, there is no way to actually know.