Posted on 09/05/2022 8:02:09 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Small arms, ATGMs, MANPADS, loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles, trailers and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it is not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Artillery (Towed + Self-Propelled) Kills per Month
September 2022, 2, Running Total: 244
August 2022 – 21, Running Total: 242
July 2022 – 21, Running Total: 221
June 2022 – 18, Running Total: 200
May 2022 – 20, Running Total: 182
April 2022 – 52, Running Total: 162
Feb 24 - March 2022 – 110, Running Total: 110
Michael Kofman
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1566453042890919937
“A few brief thoughts on the UA offensive. First, its best to manage expectations, these types of operations take weeks or months to play out. In my view its very early, there is limited information available, and far too soon to issue judgments. Thread 1/”
“My best guess on UA approach is to steadily press Russian forces towards the Dnipro river. Perhaps splitting the main Russian group of forces between those defending the city Kherson and those holding territory east of the Inhulets river. 2/”
“As Russian forces are pressed to choose between retreat and envelopment, over time they will likely withdraw to secondary defensive lines, steadily compressing the battlespace. If successful, UA may begin to isolate these groupings into several large pockets. 3/”
“With supply lines strained, given regular strikes against bridges & relatively weak capacity of ferries, this could place Russian forces in an untenable position, eventually forcing a retreat across the river. UA will probably have more success pushing the northern pocket. 4/”
“I doubt UA seeks a fight for the city of Kherson itself, which would be costly and could destroy much of it. Instead, to steadily compress the pocket around it, make reinforcement impossible, and force a Russian withdrawal (ala Snake Island). 5/”
“My impression is that there are at least three axes of advance in Kherson, but it’s difficult to tell the composition of UA forces. I’m making an educated guess here - this map is very notional. 6/”
“So far, there are visible signs of UA gains, with breaks through the first line of Russian defenses. That said, Russian forces will retreat to secondary lines. As friction increases, the pace of the advance could slow down. As I often suggest, outcomes are contingent. 7/”
“Having used HARM to suppress Russian air defense, and likely EW, UA may have pockets of localized air superiority (enough for TB2 to operate on parts of the front), but it will require sustained suppression against Russian ADS which could regenerate. 8/”
“To place the offensive in context, much of the front has become active with UA forces launching localized counter attacks around Kharkiv and Donbas. These local initiatives are probably designed to take advantage of lost Russian momentum. 9/”
“On managing expectations - one thing to consider is that the better military commanders of the 20th century would have struggled to keep up with social media expectations, and a media glare that often seeks to magnify minor tactical events into major strategic indicators. 10/”
” Overall, the geography is favorable to UA, and in this area they can establish relative advantage if not in forces then in fires and logistics. Russian forces have been reinforced over the summer, but many BTGs are likely at half strength, with strained supply lines. 11/”
“That said, I have strong priors on this, having seen the right river bank of Kherson as the area where Russia’s position is the most vulnerable, and the region overall as of greater strategic significance relative to others. 12/”
“In addition, taking back territory is not a singular objective. Sustainability and force preservation matters. One of the challenges for UA will be to keep relative costs low so as to be better positioned for future operations, and subsequent phases over the long term. 13/”
‘Notably the TB-2 kinetic strikes were previously almost exclusively on logistics or IADS targets. That Ukraine is moving to tactical targets speaks good things about a) the poor state of Ru air defense picture in Kherson and b) Ukrainian supply of munitions for TB-2s.”
Constantly on the prowl, the Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 UCAV continues to destroy targets in the South - a Russian BMD-2 airborne infantry fighting vehicle was destroyed during the ongoing offensive in #Kherson Oblast by a high-precision munition.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566548024301592577
“We can reveal yet more Russian targets hit by Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones in recent days in #Kherson Oblast; what appears to be two 9A331 TLAR from the 9K331 Tor-M1 SAM system, as well as an unknown transport vehicle attempting to hide under foliage.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566557906593615873
More RuZZian POWs. Seeing a lot more of these pics recently.
https://twitter.com/Tuchua2/status/1566521039915520003
“NEW: The UK is significantly expanding a training programme in Britain to turn potentially tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens into frontline soldiers to fight Russia”
“It sounds like this includes more unit-level training, not just individual skills, which is important. Training volunteers and reservists will be critical to Ukraine’s ability to sustain this war, likely giving them an advantage. Good to see the UK lead the way on this effort.”
“Ukrainian soldiers will receive much better and longer training through this program than Russian volunteers in their newly formed units. This may not have a noticeable effect immediately, but it will be important over the medium to long-term.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1566667056115859456
“Intense mechanised combat footage of Ukrainian Marines using tanks and Turkish-donated BMC Kirpi IMV against Russian forces during the ongoing #Kherson offensive.
A Russian vehicle, possibly a BMP, is destroyed by Ukrainian tank fire at close range.”
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1566783630281740291
“Russia says 2 of its embassy staff were among the killed in Kabul’s suicide bombing. The Russian Foreign Ministry said on Sept. 5 that a suicide bombing outside its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, killed two unidentified members of the embassy staff.”
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1566772604832202759
“As a result of the explosion near the Russian embassy in Kabul, two employees of the diplomatic mission were killed
The suicide bomber set it up right at the gate, while in the visa queue, when the diplomat came out to announce the lists”
https://mobile.twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1566725105719328768
“Ukrainian drone gets one.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/x6d0rk/ukrainian_drone_gets_one/
Source of your optimistic map? Neither the BBC nor Sky News, thus far the most reliable source of news in this war, are not reporting Ukrainian success in their offensive against the exposed Russians with their backs to the Dnieper at the “Kherson bridehead”. The results of that battle will likely dictate how that war ends.
Ukrainians may be corrupt but the Russians are ruthless just like the Japanese were. Is this a fair comparison?
Would not want to come across a group of drunken, armed, hungry, undisciplined frightened soldiers regardless of their nationality.
Watermark is on the map.
DEFMON3.
He has been mapping out the lines by geolocating videos. He has been doing this throughout the war.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Sept 4, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••denotes transcribed dialogue.
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
The Drones Russia Is Reportedly Receiving From Iran For Its Ukraine War
These are the types of drones reports state Russia is already in the process of receiving from Iran to support its flagging war effort.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-drones-russia-is-reportedly-receiving-from-iran-for-its-ukraine-war
Drone types image:
https://www.thedrive.com/uploads/2022/09/04/Shahed-Drone-copy.jpg?auto=webp&auto=webp&optimize=high&quality=70&width=3840
Iranian drone types:
Mohajer-6, Shahed-129, Shahed-191
———————————————————————————————————————
Summary:
Major Ukrainian offensive on Kherson bridgehead
Day 7 of the offensive
Ukrainian advances troops liberated village Vysokopilya (very likely Olgyne too) and Blogodativka.
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead: no changes
- North Donbass area: no changes
- Donetsk West: no changes.
- Kherson bridgehead: Ukrainian troops liberated village Vysokopilya
Russian unit (45 sfB) managed to escape from the encirclement. (Rats!)
1. Kharkiv: No changes.
2. Izyum bridgehead: No changes.
••Orcs stretched thin and only hold various strongholds - the rest is open.
3. North Donbass: No changes.
4. West of Donetsk: No changes.
5. Vugledar - Velyka Novosilka, Gulyapole: No changes.
••
6. Kherson bridgehead:
The slow-motion Ukraine offensive continues.
Ukrainian troops suppressed Russian anti-air defenses and anti-rocket defenses, radar systems destroyed more or less or at least destroyed enough to create open air to use Bayraktar.
Bayraktar are pretty weak tools, they only work when you don’t have strong anti-air defenses and Russia does have decent anti-air defenses.
That’s why probably past couple months as you barely have seen any Bayraktars, and we were very skeptical about them as a tool for this war.
However, in this situation, when Ukraine get received HARM anti-radar missiles from the US it allowed Ukrainian troops to destroy Russian anti-air defenses and that opens up air for Bayraktars.
They help Ukrainian troops tactically by destroying Russian heavy artillery mostly 152mm calibers, some tanks. This is how it works, and because it’s a slow process, that’s why this whole attack is happening at snail speed.
The only success, or at least I would say public success, that was clearly available is the capture or liberation of the village with Vyslopedia. The reason pretty poorly organized attack was successful is because of HIMARS destroyed the supply of their artillery shells.
We from information from Russian sources they complained that there is no artillery support like it used to be. That’s a reason why Ukrainian troops are able to advance so this destruction of the supply does work; it’s not complete, Russian troops are only getting 15-20% of what they used to get.
The situation will get progressively worse because as long as Ukraine receives those HIMARS rockets, it will continue hitting those bridges which are done completely.
Ukrainian forces are more targeting Russian ferries and this destruction of Russian anti-air defenses allows the Ukraine to use Bayraktars to spot and attack those ferries, helping the HIMARS to be more precise.
Ukrainian side lacks equivalent over land and long distance, mid-altitude reconnaissance UAV, that’s really biggest challenge on Ukrainian side, and that’s what hampers the use of a lot of advanced long range artillery systems where Ukraine has an advantage over the Russian forces.
There is nothing really happening. Ukraine put pressure just to keep Russian troops engaged, and so the Russian command doesn’t move reserves to a more dangerous situation - this is more or less was successful.
Let’s look what’s going on here between Davydiv Brid and Sneharivka. Then we’ll look at the north situation.
On the first day of the offensive Ukrainian troops breached in unexpected location near Andrevka, and they started quickly moving, engulfing Russian troops. On the second day, the Ukraine troops managed to cross the road here in Brewskink. However, they were repelled by the Russian airborne units 331/98AD
Then the Ukraine command followed the line of possible least resistance; they moved to Custromka then Shisley and then Baziman. From what we know, Ukraine troops managed to expand the salient into Russian lines. Ukraine troops created this like much bigger bridgehead; they will continue pounding Russian defenses, moving very slow. The end goal is Nova Kahovka on this on the eastern side.
On the western side, this is the right move, but it may take entire months before they finally reach this Beraslav. Who knows if Russian defenses really start to fall apart, then maybe there is opportunity for quick move; it’s unpredictable.
Northern section of this front line.
Today 45th sfB evacuated with the help of attack from the mainland the the troops that were in circle also did break through at them and successfully broke broke out broke through Ukrainian positions here they were not even Ukrainian positioned it’s just basically fire corridor that was created by Ukrainian troops and they managed to get through that fire corridor in enjoying the main body of 331/98th AD.
This new defensive line for Russian troops. They have a new and more stable defensive live. There is advantage in number of troops by for Ukrainian side and now there is a shortage of the Russian artillery support. It’s just a slow motion loss of this whole bridgehead. Generally, this is going to be a slow motion loss,
We also don’t know don’t have confirmation about situation in Zola Tabalka which used to be controlled by Russian troops some sources reported Russian troops actually evacuated and established a line south of that huge lake artificial lake.
This whole so-called defense is very and unconventional, unusual that it is not a quick operation; it’s going to be a very slow, taking probably several weeks in our estimates. At the same time, Russian command can still withdraw all of this group at their discretion at any moment.
However, as Ukrainian troop drive deeper and deeper into Russian defensive positions, the opportunity to continue to have an orderly withdrawal is diminishing for Russian troops at least the ones that are on eastern and northeastern section of the bridgehead.
The writing is definitely on the wall
45th sfB managed to retreat to the 331st/98th AD lines.
Zolota Balka now in UA hands
“The writing is definitely on the wall”
Thanks for the update!
Are you busy blowing ZZpeedy while he frantically posts to you 9 times right after his post? I want to know what makes you two lovers click.
1008 dead Russian tanks? That will never be replaced?
I got some serious toasting to do today!
Some guesswork:
TB-2 Drone missions are only flown at night.
Russian shoot down of previous TB-2 Drones were optically tracked using command guided missiles.
It is impossible to optically track TB-2s at night.
I wonder how many TB-2s with IIR Ukraine has.
I wonder how fast Turkey can manufacture them.
I also wonder if the Iranian drones that Russia is getting are equipped with IIR cameras.
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